Yu Yue on Jin:3.24黄金原油今日行情还会跌吗？实时走势分析...

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　goldLatest market analysis:



Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday（3month23日）美市盘中，现货黄金继续窄幅震荡，目前交投在1931美元附近，市场今日关注美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，以及美国总统拜登的欧洲之行。黄金走势陷入一场拉锯战中，俄乌冲突不减继续带来避险支撑，另一方面，美联储愈发嘹亮的鹰声打压多头。投资者等待美国总统拜登欧洲之行期间公布对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。此外，美联储本周释放激进立场带来的利空效应消退，投资者担心美联储激进收水可能给经济增长和就业带来的不利影响。尽管美联储官员正在帮助市场塑造对其大幅加息以遏制通胀飙升的预期，但未能消除市场对货币从紧周期可能给经济增长和就业带来负面影响的担忧，黄金市场参与者不看好美联储可以无后顾之忧地收紧货币政策的前景。



　　黄金日线上，黄金日线收阴线，目前处于短期线附近及下方运行，5Japan and Japan10日均线走平偏向下，中期线向上运行，MACDRun down,KDJ向下运行，指标看跌。日内黄金先低位震荡，回撤1917一线后，欧盘时段出现连续的回升反弹，高点测压至1935一线，随后有所回修。对于黄金日内的回弹，主要还是源自与市场对俄乌局势的不确定担忧，而晚间美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话，如果涉及加息预期相关言论且更为鹰派，那么黄金自然还是会有回落的，但如果未提及加息相关内容，那么市场情绪可能会向着俄乌局势转变，毕竟目前已有侧重。



　　黄金从结构上来看，日内黄金的波动大致还是处在下降通道内运行的，只是运行节奏有些意外对通道上沿压力有所刺破，但又并未能站稳其上，且目前小时图级别指标也出现超买，晚间行情进行震荡消化回修的可能性还是很大的。不过经过欧盘的拉升动作后，如果晚间行情不能跌回至1825-23以下，那么技术结构可能会发生质变，短线结构重心抬升，可能会触发行情进一步的回升，但是即便行情站上1935上方，其上还有10、20Daily line1943-45附近压力。不过需要注意的是，如果今日行情收得阳线，那么日线将又会是阴阳交错出现的状态，频繁的短线多空转换之下，操作难度和持单风险也是非常大的，因此务必要谨慎对待。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上余越论金建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1945-1950Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1920-1915Frontline support.

crude oilTrend analysis:



　　日图来看，油价震荡上行，5日均线重新上穿10日均线并给油价提供支撑，短线有望继续震荡上涨，目前油价已经突破周二高点113.35附近阻力，多头目标初步看向在61.8%Retreat position116.36附近，若能顶破该阻力，则有望重新上探130关口附近。鉴于MACD死叉信号仍在，也需要提防震荡回落风险，初步支撑在5Daily moving average107.23Nearby,10The daily moving average is supported by104.36附近，若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号。



　　总体来看，油价的整体k线自均线位置受到支撑，有望重新开启新一轮升势。各主要技术指标仍然是多头态势。余越认为，过去一周俄乌局势虽然缓和，但受制裁影响俄罗斯原油、成品油出口依旧受阻，全球原油、成品油供应偏紧的格局没有缓和。因此，对于回吐完前期全部地缘政治风险溢价的原油而言短线存在一定超跌，下方空间原本比较有限，短期处于阶段性筑底、反弹的过程中，建议关注波段做多。



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    本文由余越论金，vx yylj10086As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Yu Yue discusses online solutions for gold, with loss recovery and real-time guidance on WeChat one-on-one. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.