Chen Zeqiang:3.19Analysis of the trend of gold and crude oil market next week and operational strategies

Trading is a process of patiently waiting for opportunities to emerge, not because one is at a loss, but because one has a plan in mind,95%The profit always comes from5%Trading, waiting for the rabbit, is a trading strategy. Sometimes taking the initiative will only scare the rabbit away, patiently waiting for the arrival of a certain signal to avoid blind investment in ambiguous stages. The market is a place where experienced people gain more money, and those with money gain more experience. Every novice will learn from the lessons of failure, while smart people will profit from the help of professional teams. The market is a magnifying glass that wirelessly magnifies your shortcomings. The real loss comes from not correcting or admitting mistakes that are already obvious, and continuing them. There is a strange phenomenon in the investment market, which is that those who make money are always making money, while those who are deeply invested are always deeply invested. They do not know their own tolerance limit, nor do they know their profit target. They are either trapped or on the path of being trapped. Not every transaction will yield good returns, and it is necessary to be prepared to bear the pain of losses, so as not to affect one's mentality. There is no winner in the market. If you are not prepared to lose, you should not have the intention of winning. Any investment carries risks. The path of cultivation is long, and time will accumulate the necessary experience and heal all wounds. Without accumulating small streams, there will be no river or sea. Investment will also go through the process of accumulating funds.

Investment itself has no risk, only out of control investments have risk

　　goldNext week's market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Friday（3month18During trading hours in the US market, Federal Reserve officials Brad and Waller made hawkish comments one after another. Affected by this, the US dollar index quickly rose in the short term, while spot gold and silver fell significantly from their highs. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the first video call between China and the US dollar has also received widespread attention. Investors are further waiting for new news on the Russia Ukraine negotiations. Gold prices fell as the demand for safe haven weakened, and fell for a while during the day1930The US dollar is expected to experience its largest decline in nearly four months. Spot gold maintains a downward trend and is currently trading in1930Near the US dollar, hitting its lowest point in the day1921Horizontal, falling close to daily highs25USD. Overall, despite the bright US economic data and a sharp rise in the US stock market, which has raised concerns among bulls, the geopolitical outlook still attracts bargain hunters to enter, and the weakening of the US dollar and high inflation expectations are expected to provide opportunities for further volatility and rebound in gold prices; Of course, the short-term trend lacks clear direction.

Yesterday, the US dollar index hit its lowest point in a week, and the short-term interest rate market has largely digested the Fed's actions this year. Some of the bets are being withdrawn, which is why the US dollar is under pressure. Supported by the decline in US dollar and US bond yields, gold prices have risen. The market weighed the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle against the economic growth risks brought by the situation in Ukraine, and the optimistic expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine cooled, attracting bargain hunters to re-enter and providing support for gold prices. However, the bright US economic data still made bulls cautious. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike "boots on the ground". The timing and scale of this interest rate hike are in line with market expectations. The Spillover effect of monetary policy tightening is partially released, and the overall performance of the financial market is stable. However, under the expectation of continuous interest rate hikes, the risk of capital flowing back from emerging economies is still inevitable. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, commodities and precious metals began to rebound. To our knowledge, the current support for gold is still the Russia Ukraine incident and inflation.

Technical analysis of gold: This week, before the interest rate resolution, the gold price unilaterally retreated and declined. After the interest rate resolution, the gold bottomed out and rebounded, breaking out of the expected selling and buying trend. However, the weak structure in the medium term has not yet changed. Therefore, the bottoming and rebounding in the two days of the week still have the correction of the oversold technical form after the significant decline in the front. If the rebound correction is in place, then bears may continue to continue their downward structure, which was hindered in the middle of yesterday1950Pressure, if it peaks in the mid-term, the maximum temporarily visible below1880-1850Horizontal. In the short term, if the gold price continues to decline and adjust today, then1940Or it may be difficult to stabilize again, so around1940We can continue to see bearish positions continue to adjust the pattern.

Gold4In terms of hours, yesterday we arrived1949The front line is beginning to decline, and there are signs of a decline in the upward momentum,4The rebound in the first period of the hour is over, short-term1The hourly callback signal has also appeared. Today, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the gold price rebound has ended. As the fast and slow lines form a golden cross below the zero axis, the rebound strength will be relatively linearkFrom the perspective of line structure, the decline this time is likely to be due to a top to bottom transition that broke through the day before yesterday1921Perform a step back, and if the step back is deeper, it is expected to test until1999The downward trend line has been at a back pressure level, and over time, the position of this trend line is expected to be1905Nearby, there are also two possibilities for today's trend, one of which is that the gold price will step back to1920-1915Nearby, starting to rise again, forming4The hourly uplink channel will operate around the uplink channel in the short term4After the hours of bull momentum consumption have ended, a new downward trend begins. Secondly, the downward force is deeper, breaking the low point of interest rate resolution and forming4The bottom of the hour deviated and then rose again. Currently, the first trend is more inclined, which is to follow the upward channel. However, further confirmation is needed from the low point that has fallen again today.

Gold4The reason why the hourly trend tends to be an upward channel is due to the short-term trend1The hour has formed a downward channel, and combined with the previous rebound, this decline is only from1896The pullback during the upward process, combined with the previous upward trend, has formed a bullish flag shaped consolidation pattern, indicating that after the adjustment is over, there is still a need to continue upward. When the pullback breaks through the upward trajectory of the downward channel, it is the end of the pullback. Therefore, in terms of short-term operations, it can first focus on the upward trajectory of the channel1936Nearby layout empty orders, target view1920, this position is from1896Since the rise50%When reaching this position in the evening, it is convenient to consider taking a long call. If the callback is deep, it is expected to be61.8%Callback bit1915Nearby, this location is also4When it comes to resonance support, multiple orders can be considered. Today, we can focus on the layout of the interval in the short term. In summary, Chen Zeqiang suggests that gold's operating strategy next Monday should focus on buying short with a rebound, supplemented by buying long with a pullback. The top focus should be on1935-1940Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1907-1902Frontline support.

　　crude oilNext week's market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Friday（3month18During the Asian period, American Oil hovered around100Above the gate; Oil prices skyrocketed on Thursday8%Continuing several consecutive days of intense volatility, the market rebounded after several consecutive days of decline. The Kremlin's statement cast a shadow on the prospects of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and investors were also weighing the impact of losing Russian oil supply while the market supply was tight. People are once again paying attention to the supply shortage caused by Russia's sanctions in the coming weeks, local time17On the th, German Chancellor Schultz met with visiting NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in Berlin. At the joint press conference before the talks, both Schultz and Stoltenberg emphasized once again that NATO will not intervene militarily in the conflict in Ukraine. Schultz and Stoltenberg will focus on discussing the conflict in Ukraine and the impact and consequences of the war on NATO during the meeting, in order to coordinate for next week's NATO summit. Overall, Russia Ukraine's stance is not optimistic, and conflicts and contradictions still exist. The market is focused on the lack of Russian crude oil supply sources and concerns about a return to supply. Under its influence, oil prices may fluctuate more. As the weekend approaches, pay attention to the progress of relevant news. In addition, pay attention to the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations, and if an agreement is reached, limit the increase in oil prices.

Technical analysis of crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil rebounded from a strong low point and closed higher, holding above the previous day's low point. The European market strengthened, and the short-term chart showed a strong consecutive positive rise to recover lost ground, with little room for retreat. The daily line finally closed with a positive line, forming a starting star to stop the decline. From a daily perspective alone, the short-term stop and rebound continue today.4Hours from94.23After stabilizing at a low point, we emerged from a strong consecutive positive trend and recovered99.20A small level of reverse recovery is formed after the resistance point.4Hour walking is relatively strong, and there is no YinKLine retraction. This makes it difficult to find short-term entry points, after all, it is a rebound caused by idle trading, rather than a single sided bull, with twists and turns of retreat in order to have strength. However, yesterday's direct one-way rise increased the frequency of oscillation and sawing today. Short term fluctuations are upward, but they will be accompanied by a trend of charging high and stepping back, correcting yesterday's upward space. At the same time, it also serves as the end of the weekly oscillation. Overall, in terms of crude oil operations next Monday, Chen Zeqiang suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback to lower levels, supplemented by a rebound to higher levels, with a short-term focus on the upper part106.2-106.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below100.7-100.2Frontline support.

Gold and SilvertdTrend analysis:

　　TDYesterday, it rose and fell, and now the pressure is moving down410Of course, there may be a rebound in the middle of the region today, but it may not necessarily arrive410It's about starting a decline, after all, it's a rebound, so today it's aggressive407Just leave the regional batch layout empty410Loss, as for long opening360Nearby, players can participate in game rebounds.

Analysis of Silver Technology:

Current pressure26.8After a continuous decline, stabilization, and rebound in the region, the current rebound is still relatively strong, but26.8The upward pressure is obvious and cannot be adjusted at any time. There is a bit of room for the decline in demand for silver industry in the later stage. When gold stabilizes, it is still the first to long silver. Currently, with the tariff adjustment, we can also rebound and participate in short selling. If we continue to rebound26Nearby, there can be empty layouts waiting for adjustments, as for silverTDJust follow the trend of spot buying and selling, of course, the pressure is concentrated now5230If encountering a direct short entry game and adjusting again, try not to participate in other positions as much as possible, and now switch between top and bottom5230Regional pressure continues to short5300Loss is sufficient. Directly encountering4800Multiple regional batches, available in stock22Try a shorter layout nearby.

Acquaintance is fate, acquaintance is fate. I firmly believe that it is fate to meet for a thousand miles, and it is fate to wipe our shoulders without a share. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are only the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man who has a thousand worries will have a loss, and a fool who has a thousand worries will have a gain. No matter how emotional you are, time will not stagnate due to you. Pick up the boredom in your heart and stand up again to pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that you and I are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you overcome difficulties and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of your heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to accompany you as I pass by.

This article was submitted by Chen Zeqiang. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is personal advice. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at your own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.