Yu Yue on Jin:3.16黄金今日行情还会涨吗？黄金原油最新多空...

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goldLatest Market Analysis



Tuesday(3month15day)金价延续跌势，因俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的停火谈判降低了对避险资产的需求，而对美联储可能三年来首次升息的押注也增加了金价的压力。俄乌第四轮谈判将继续，与此同时，市场焦点转向本周的重头戏——美联储3月决议，预计将实施三年来的首次加息。在此之前，债券收益率攀升，金价势将连续第三个交易日下跌，这可能是自1月底以来持续时间最长的下跌。美市早盘，现货黄金扩大跌势至2.2%, lowest touch1907.07美元，较日高回落了近48USD.



　　美联储预计将在周三为期两天的会议结束时将借贷成本提高0.25个百分点。鉴于地缘政治紧张局势升级带来的不确定性，投资者还在期待央行对利率、通胀和经济的新预测。交易员们已经提高了对美联储今年可能收紧政策幅度的预期，周一曾完全消化7second25个基点加息的预期。上次隔夜指数掉期市场消化如此多的加息预期还是在2month11日，因此前一天公布的1月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)升幅高于预期，促使投资者押注美联储会采取更加鹰派的政策。与今年12月政策会议相关的掉期利率周一攀升至1.83%，比当前有效联邦基金利率0.08%Above175个基点。这相当于7次每次25个基点的加息。这一即将宣布的消息令美国10年期国债收益率持续走高，并对金价构成压力，因美国利率上升会增加持有无收益黄金的机会成本。



　　且下跌动作持续，目前低点已经跌至1907一线，虽然行情下跌趋势与空间符合预期，但如此持续阴跌节奏还是超出预期的，这也表明当前在基本面逐渐转空，尤其是市场焦点转向美联储利率决定，而这可能会给黄金带来短线强压的情况下，市场多头信心受到很大的打击，也就导致当前行情持续阴跌不止，且很难见得到有力度的反弹的情况。随着日K线的收低失守10日线。附图MACD指标开始高位死叉向下。日线继续看回落。向下调整的空间仍将进一步加大。

　　

　　黄金连续大跌4个交易日，日线从2070Falling to1913，幅度超级大，我们继续找空的机会，思路还是看跌，这波黄金大跌的主要原因是因为俄乌谈判到了关键的时间，区域的局势有缓解的信号，导致了全系大宗商品走跌，之前的黄金原因飙涨也是因为俄乌开战导致了市场情绪不稳定，就目前的情况来后面还有大起大落的可能性，今天的黄金我们将依托1925的压制点继续看跌，反弹是再次空的机会。这波大跌还没有见底信号，也没有任何企稳信号，1900的目标指日可待。目前行情虽然说是有所反弹，但是力度都不大，目前稳健等待反弹1940再次做空，激进反弹1930直接空进去，此波空单看1908的位置，破位下一目标点1890这里。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上余越论金建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1935-1940Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1908-1900Frontline support.



　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis



Tuesday(3month15day)，国际油价跌至两周低点，截止发稿最低触及93.52dollar/桶，因俄罗斯和乌克兰继续进行停火谈判。此前油价大幅飙升，增加了未来12个月内全球经济衰退的可能性，促使许多投资者削减多头头寸，直到风险平衡变得更加清晰。分析师表示：“对俄罗斯和乌克兰停火谈判取得积极进展的预期增强了缓解全球原油市场供应紧张的希望。”市场分析师表示：“一些投资者愈发担心波动加剧，他们解除了多头头寸。但即使停火，西方将会继续通过制裁孤立莫斯科，全球石油市场仍处于紧张状态，预计油价仍将维持在高位。”由于价格飙升至多年高位、经济前景恶化以及极端波动性使得维持衍生品头寸的成本大幅提高，投资者上周削减对石油市场的看涨押注。油价飙升是导致原材料、制成品和运费价格普遍上涨的重要原因，这增加了未来12个月内全球经济衰退的可能性。



　　原油技术面分析：原油从日线上来看，日线级别来看类似倒“V”反转；KDJDeadfork signal continuation,MACD结成死叉运行，空头夺回主动权，原油今日开盘后出现了快速下破走势，价格最低给到93.5水平徘徊，从日线走势图上看，原油近期空头下跌趋势比较明显，没有出现较强势的反弹，按照这个空头力度油价有望去考验前期跳空缺口水平91.8USD.



　　四小时级别上看，布林带开口向下，油价运行在布林带中下轨附近，指标上出现钝化，运行在超卖区域徘徊，上方多空分水岭在在104.5美元水平，该位置上破后，油价空头格局将出现改变，在次位之前，我们需要关注100.5-102.5USD resistance, lower support focus93.5-94.0水平支撑。虽日线结构上，昨日阴线最终收在20日线上，今日美油再度延续下跌趋势，下方低点跌至93.5一线附近，这基本回补了俄乌战争爆发后的起涨跳空缺口。技术上美油未破93.5，那么就有可能会借此支撑有所反弹，但是目前基本面对于原油走势是非常不利的。综合来看：今日原油操作思路上余越论金建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注98-99Frontline resistance, short-term focus below93.5-94.0Frontline support.


   The market has given you an opportunity to overturn, but if you fail to seize it, you will have to find a reason from yourself. It is important to change your mindset at any time when making transactions. If you are in the wrong direction, you must correct it in a timely manner. If you don't have confidence, let me give you confidence. I can't guarantee that you will make millions at once, it's all untrue. In short, if you win, I will accompany you to conquer the world. If you lose, I will accompany you to rise again. I am Yu Yue discussing gold, and I will speak for myself. My strength awaits you to experience.!


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    This article discusses the deduction of gold by Yu Yue  724952173,vx yylj10086As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Yu Yue discusses online solutions for gold, with loss recovery and real-time guidance on WeChat one-on-one. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.