ATFXUS Secretary of State Antony Blinken: discussing with the European Union to ban the import of Russian oil

Message surface:3month6On January 1, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: "We are actively discussing with our European partners the issue of banning oil imports from Russia. Of course, at the same time, we should also maintain the stability of global oil supply.". It is precisely this statement that leads to beautycrude oilJumping up on Monday to118USD, highest hit127USD, compared to last Friday's closing price113USD, with a maximum increase of over12.38% 。 according to2Monthly data, daily oil production in Russia1105.5Ten thousand barrels,OPECDaily crude oil production2855Ten thousand barrels, and global oil demand1Billion barrels/Day. If Russian oil is prohibited, the global oil market will emerge1/10The supply gap and the record high price of crude oil will be a high probability event. Crude oil is the "mother of inflation", and once oil prices spiral out of control, Western countries represented by the United StatesCPIThe data will rapidly rise, and hyperinflation will follow. Therefore, considering the serious impact of the ban on Russian oil exports, the discussion between Antony Blinken and the EU countries may not have substantive results.

Technical aspect of crude oil: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a watershed. Although crude oil has also been rising before, the rising trend is weak, even with the characteristics of shock; Afterwards, it began to rise in a short jump and continuous long positive pattern, with significant signs of acceleration. Crude oil prices are influenced by the United States/The speeches of EU leaders and the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine have a great impact, and it is difficult to judge the short-term trend. After all, Antony Blinken's words can increase the oil price by more than ten dollars, and in turn, the words of other leaders can also reduce the oil price by more than ten dollars. So, the best strategy is to track news in real time and avoid any negative situations/Participate in the news of Lido as soon as possible, and then choose the opportunity to close the position. It should be noted that long-term thinking is not suitable for event driven markets.

The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine: This Monday（7Japan will hold the third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In the first two rounds of negotiations, no agreement was reached for the first time, and a "painless" humanitarian channel was reached for the second time. From the perspective of the war situation, Ukraine is at a significant disadvantage, with the capital Kiev surrounded by Russian troops. President Zelensky has been seeking diplomatic means (joining NATO) to resist the Russian army. Yesterday, Ukrainian negotiators stated that the future5reach10During the year, NATO was not prepared to discuss Ukraine's accession to the organization, and Ukraine will no longer be committed to submitting an application to join NATO. This is exactly what the Russian negotiating delegation expected. At present, the biggest difference between Russia and Ukraine lies in the sovereignty of Crimea and the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk.
Market trend analysis:


Summary
ATFXThe analyst team believes that objectively speaking, it is unlikely that Western countries will sanction Russia's energy sector, as this will exacerbate their own high inflation problems. However, the supply and demand of crude oil still do not match. Even without the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the probability of the price of crude oil continuing to rise is high.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.