ATFXThe US dollar index may stall97Gateway

Summary:
since11Month forming high point96.95Afterwards, the US dollar index has been in a weak pullback state. If12If the rebound in the month cannot break through the previous high, the US dollar index may stall97Gateway.

Ten year US Treasury yield


The Federal Reserve's reduction in monthly bond purchases and Powell's denial of temporary inflation have failed to push the 10-year Treasury yield above its highest point this year1.746%It can be seen that the bond market does not believe that tightening monetary policy will be a high probability event in the future. Of course, from the perspective of long-term technological trends, The yield of US 10-year bonds is still in a bullish trend, currently only experiencing a short-term pullback. Whether a "pullback" can evolve into a "reversal" depends on both the determination of the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and the United StatesCPIHow long can data and labor market data maintain a good situation. withCPIAccording to data, the main driving factor behind high inflation in the United States is the rise in fuel oil prices.11monthcrude oilAccumulated decline nearly20%Expected12To be announced in the monthCPIThe data will significantly decrease (current value is6.2%）. In terms of the labor market,11The non agricultural sector at Yueda is experiencing a sudden decline, indicating that the expansion of enterprises is not stable, and job demand is sometimes high and low.

▋ US dollar index Daily line


As shown in the figure, if the small pullback tick is established, that is, the US dollar index is96.95If a top fractal resistance structure is formed below, a top characteristic will appear, and the future probability will decrease. The signal for determining the top feature more accurately is95.54Double effective breakthrough, this signal also needs to wait. At present, the top fractal resistance has not yet formed, and the long-term trend of the US dollar index is still bullish, so maintain a bearish view.

▋EURUSD Daily line


EURUSDThe trend structure is similar to that of the US dollar index, both of which have the characteristic of trend turning. If in the next few daysEURUSDThe decisive long yang line can appear, and1.1187If it is not broken, the roof structure is confirmed. In addition, although ECB President Lagarde's public speech still leans towards the dove side, with the implementation of the Federal Reserve's debt reduction measures, the possibility of reducing its "anti epidemic bond purchase plan" is greatly increased. Stacking the runaway euro zoneCPIData, we expect to see the tightening monetary policy of the European Central Bank early next year, which is conducive to the rise of the euro against the US dollar.

Summary

The US dollar index is at a standstill95The checkpoint is currently only a possibility for future development, and it is clear that it conflicts with the bullish trend of the US dollar index. The viewpoint proposed here is mainly a warning to prevent the market from overly bullish on the US dollar index while ignoring the underlying risks.


*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.