ATFXHong Kong Stock Tracking: Haidilao is on the hot search list, and whether it tastes good or not still depends on its performance

ATFXHong Kong Stock Tracking: Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, sparked a heated discussion with his statement: "Everyone has a myth about Haidilao, but I personally dislike it. If you want to know what doesn't live up to its name, just take a look at Haidilao.". As the leader of Hai Di Lao2020At the time of a significant decline in annual performance, I did not try my best to comfort the market, but instead self deprecated myself with a "falling from the well" attitude, which is abnormal and also shows a sincere attitude.

Whether Hai Di Lao has been mythologized or not, whether it tastes good or not depends on Zhang Yong's performance.

2020Prior to this year, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Hai Di Lao increased continuously.2016year7.35Billion,2017year10.28Billion,2018year16.46Billion,2019year23.45Billion, for four consecutive years, with annual growth50%Left and right. This is a very good performance for the fiercely competitive catering industry. It can be concluded from this that,2019Before the New Year, Haidilao's hot pot was "quite delicious" and not as bad as its founder Zhang Yong said.

The turning point occurred at2020Year. The COVID-19 has swept the world, and the household policy has made consumers all over the world "stay at home". The catering industry, which is heavily dependent on the restaurant customers, has been hit hard, and Haidilao is no exception.2020In the first half of the year, Haidilao suffered a loss in net profit attributable to its parent company9.65Billion RMB, this is the first time since its listing. Fortunately, China has effectively controlled the epidemic and resumed production and work in an orderly manner in the second half of the year. Haidilao's performance has come back to life, and it was finally announced in the annual report that it achieved net profit attributable to shareholders for the whole year3.09One billion RMB. Just, there are2019year23.45Comparing the net profit of one billion yuan,2020Of3.09The net profit of one billion appears insignificant. From this perspective,2020Haidilao in the year, the food is not so delicious, and the money is not so easy to earn.

The most obvious feeling is the stock price. since2021year2Since the beginning of the month, the stock price of Hai Di Lao has been continuously declining. From the highest point85.8, continuously falling to the current level37.1Stock price halved, decline54%Above, there was no decent rebound in the middle. Strangely enough,2020year3Month to9During the most severe period of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, the stock price of Hai Di Lao rose instead of falling.3Monthly lowest price27.45，9Monthly highest price61Increase122%, far exceeding market expectations. On the surface, it seems that Hai Di Lao has a hedging attribute, and the worse the macro environment, the more its stock price will soar; The macroeconomic recovery has led to a decline in stock prices. In fact, this is the market's expected effect at play. When COVID-19 is serious, Haidilao will lose money. However, market investors expect that COVID-19 will pass soon. At that time, Haidilao will be "another hero". At this time, it should actively buy while the public is panicking. On the contrary, after the epidemic was brought under control, the good expectations were fulfilled, and new good expectations had not yet arrived, leading to a decline in stock prices.


As of now, Hai Di Lao2021The mid year report has not been released yet. Due to the absence of serious risk events in the first half of the year, it is expected that this year's interim performance will be much better than last year. Does Hai Di Lao still have investment value? Of course there is. From a financial perspective, excluding2020Under special circumstances, the net profit growth rate of Hai Di Lao is stable and sustainable. Although the stock price has not yet stopped falling, this decline can be seen as a proactive "clearing" of the market. When speculators who do not pay attention to financial performance clear their positions, those value investment oriented funds will continue to flow in and drive the stable rise of Haidilao's stock price. The turning point is highly likely to be the time point disclosed in the interim report, so the top priority is not to see what founder Zhang Yong said, but to see how Haidilao's interim performance will be. Everyone will wait and see.

ATFXDisclaimer: The above content only represents the analyst's viewpoint and does not constitute any guidance.