Chen Yibo:4.19黄金原油分析操作建议及策略。

　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend:



　　黄金消息面解析：现货黄金上周收涨1.86%to1776.49dollar/Ounces, recorded2month25New high in recent days1783.81dollar/盎司，并创2020year12month18日当周以来最佳周度表现，因美元和美债收益率走低。尽管美国通胀数据显着走强，但美联储多名官员继续强调维持宽松政策，美国股市再创纪录新高，削弱了美元的吸引力。加上全球疫苗接种副作用不断，也提振了黄金避险功能。10年期美债收益率收跌近8Bps to1.579%, Create in Disk3month11Recently, it has reached a new low1.526%。美元指数收跌0.71%to91.533, creating3month18Recently, it has reached a new low91.484。美国商品futures交易委员会昨天发布的报告显示投机者持有的黄金投机性净多头减少8635Hand contract, to180874手合约，表明投资者看多黄金的意愿降温，此前也说过，美债收益率在未来一段时间可能还会上升，对于黄金有一定的压力，加之股市表现较好，黄金其实并没有多大的吸引力，黄金目前虽然反弹还没有结束，但上方空间感觉不是很大。



　　黄金技术面分析：黄金日线双底结构，上周五再次上破站稳表明下方支撑有效，后续进一步向上的概率较大。但短线来看1780美元一线有一定的阻力，日内或保持震荡上行，仍需警惕短线的回调，下方关注1750美元一线的支撑。从日线来看，金价回踩双底形态颈线位置后再度破高，令MACDThe double line of indicators has reopened upwards, indicating that there are signs of confirmed success in the double bottom pattern. In the future, prices are expected to further rise, but we still need to pay attention in the short termMA5The confirmation of the support of the moving average, if confirmed successfully, is expected to complete the remaining upward trend of the double bottom pattern in the market price, and further1800Enter the integer level.



Gold from4小时图看，上周四早间金价经过一段时间横盘震荡整理过程后开始向上发力，欧盘时段价格就已经回到了前天的起跌位置1748Near the front line, the US gold price further rose in the evening, reaching its highest point at one point1770Refresh Near2The new high since the beginning of the month, although the prices in the future have dropped slightly from the high point, they are still at a high level1760附近高位，目前MACD指标双线已经发出金叉信号，暗示短时间内有形成新一轮上行走势的迹象，上行方面，进一步看向1676-1959section38.2%Retreat position1784as well as1800这一重点心理关口；下行方面，下方首先警惕1750附近的支撑，进一步关注23.6%Retreat position1743附近以及1720一线的支撑。综合来看，黄金今日短线操作思路上陈亦博（微信cyb5983）建议以反弹高空为主，低位做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1785-1790Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1755-1750Frontline support.



　　crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend:



　　原油消息面解析：国际油价本周大涨近6%，录得近一个月新高，原因是中国和美国经济复苏迹象暗示需求前景更趋强劲、美国库存下降、地缘局势不稳定，抵消了对其他主要经济体新冠感染增加的担忧。本周，国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）均上调了2021年石油需求增长预期，理由是一些经济体的复苏强于预期。OPECTuesday（4month13日）略微上调对今年全球石油需求增长的预估，目前预估2021Annual oil demand will increase59510000 barrels/Day or6.6%, which is higher than last month's estimate710000 barrels/Day.OPEC押注疫情将会平息，旅行限制也将解除。据国际能源署（IEA）月报，全球石油需求前景变得光明，预计全球石油供需将在下半年再次平衡，产油国届时可能需要增加20010000 barrels/日石油，才能满足预期需求。由于受到美国制裁，伊朗目前不受OPEC+减产协议的约束。但即便伊朗石油出口能完全恢复，今年下半年国际客运航空限制有望逐步放松，油价仍有望向上寻找新的平衡点。



　　原油技术面分析：上周五原油开盘就反弹63.5附近，回落下探63.2Nearby, explore on the rebound63.8附近，回落下探62.8Nearby, closing63附近，原油从技术面来看，日线级别油价周三大涨突破3month30Daily high62.27It means a strong return of bulls. However, oil prices fell more than1%It may indicate that the pressure on the short track is relatively high. If the bulls are under pressure, they may step back62.27Seek support nearby and then resume rising. If bulls continue their upward trend, initial resistance may look towards2month25Daily high63.81Further attention3month18Daily high64.88and3month15Daily high66.40Resistance. On the contrary, if the oil price turns around and goes down, then62.27It is its initial support level, falling below this level,38.2%Retreat position61.35Will become the next support, and60关口是重要的心理支撑。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上陈亦博（微信cyb5983）建议以回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注64.0-64.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below61.5-61.0Frontline support.