Tan Xinsheng:4.12黄金走势短期承压 空头或将卷土重来

goldInformation analysis:

美指周线终结三连涨。刚刚过去的一周，美元指数震荡下行，目前运行于92关口附近。美联储在一段时间内维持宽松货币政策的承诺，打击了美元指数。此外，美债收益率走势疲软，也打压了美元指数。虽然上周五美国PPI数据延迟公布，诱发市场恐慌，导致股票和债券遭遇抛售，美债收益率一度攀升，但是随后即回吐涨幅。

此外，美国大规模刺激计划，提升政府债务，影响美元信用，同时提高通胀预期，也对黄金形成利好。拜登政府继1.9万亿美元财政刺激，以及2.25万亿美元基建计划之后，再次提出总规模达到1.52万亿美元的2022财年预算草案，另外在他的任期100天之内，还将出炉一项总规模达到1万亿美元的长期社会支出计划。

然而，黄金的上涨之路，也存在许多不利因素。美国经济数据表现强劲，市场对经济前景的乐观情绪高涨，推动美股不断创造历史新高；十年期美债收益率维持高位，市场对经济增长的强烈信心，可能推动收益率继续上涨。此外，疫苗普及速度加快，进一步加快经济重启的速度，这些因素导致黄金很难长期保持上升走势。

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Gold market analysis:

gold4month8日的大涨突破了3month18Daily high1755一线，一度令市场看涨情绪大涨，不过4month9日未能延续涨势，这在一定程度上打击了多头的信心。不过，多头庆幸的是空方未能完全收复前一日的所有失地，并在1931一线再度获得支撑，这暗示多头仍然略占优势。但后市不排除回踩1721-1720区域后再继续上涨的可能性。日内不确定性较大，不过也存在触底反弹的可能，市场看涨的情绪普遍较高。

技术面日线图上看，布林三轨还是持稳走平，K线冲击上轨压力后回调下跌，MA5as well asMA10均线中轨附近聚集，MACD双线向上运行，能量柱有所缩减，KDJ指标拐头向下出现粘合迹象，日线整体看还是高位压力回调走势，反弹暂时以高位做空看跌，目前整体黄金会维持在大区间内运行状态。

gold1Hour chartK线形态上看，金价自底部1678附近位置上行1658附近之后开始调整，目前行情报价1739附近，从趋势通道上看，目前价格运行在上行轨道下轨通道中，短期均线MA5andMA10死叉平稳向下发散，MACD双线向下走平粘合，负动能柱缩小，KDJ指标向上运行，RSI技术指标拐头向下在35位置保持弱势运行，指标显示金价反弹存在阻力会有回落。K线结构呈现上行中的头肩顶模式，行情或出现回踩下跌形态，操作上先反弹高空。

综上所述，今日金价上行方面初步阻力先关注1745-1749区域附近，进一步关注阶段高位1753-1758/60区域附近；下行方面短线支撑先关注1735-1730区域，若是下破1730关口则会去测试1724-1720区域附近；短线初步阻力下移至1747-1749区域附近，反弹力度过大则会去测试1753-1755as well as1758-1760区域的压制。

Reference suggestions for gold operations:

1Gold falling back1735-1733If the support near the area is effective, lay out multiple orders and stop losses1730Next, let's take a look at the target first1740-1741Near the area, please take a look up1747-1749Nearby the area, held in a broken position

2Gold rebound1745-1749If there is effective obstruction near the area, empty orders will be placed to stop losses1753Go ahead, let's take a look at the target first1741-1740Near the area, take a look down1735-1733Area, break through to see1731-1730Nearby the area, held in a broken position

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