Tan Xinsheng:4.12黄金走势临近变盘窗口 日内多空操作建议

goldInformation analysis:

现货黄金上周五略显颓势，失守1750美元关口并一度逼近1730关口，最终收跌于1743附近。美元指数日间走高至92.4后美盘回落，最终收盘微涨报92.18。上周五由于美国劳工局网站出现问题，美国3monthPPI年率延迟公布，诱发恐慌抛售。最终公布录得4.2%, creating2011年以来新高。有评论称此数据符合通胀预期。

Last Friday night, US President Biden sought to2022Fiscal Year Budget Increase8.4%, to1.52Trillion US dollars. Sources have revealed that Biden will hold a meeting with lawmakers on infrastructure and employment plans this Monday. Another total amount is expected to be1A long-term social expenditure plan of around trillions of dollars will also be released. Biden's financial plan is affecting the nerves of global markets, and the calm of the bond market is about to be disrupted.

The Fed's firm stance of maintaining loose policies has temporarily overshadowed inflation concerns.2021年初主导债市的通货再膨胀交易已经有所缓和，此前被美联储超宽松政策和巨额财政刺激推高的通胀预期衡量指标已在高位停滞，尚未得到实际数据的持续支持。收益率曲线也是如此，美债收益率已从近期的峰值回落。这不仅关系到债券仓位，如果没有数据的后续支持，市场对美联储最早在2022年底收紧政策的押注可能会消退，可能削弱对美元的需求。

Looking ahead to this week, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking out intensively, Powell will make two appearances, while the United StatesCPIAnd retail sales data have received much attention.

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Gold market analysis:

国际现货黄金上周五高位受阻回落加剧短线震荡，上周五早间金价最高触及1757附近后短线维持较为强劲走低，进入下午盘欧盘开盘前后金价最低触及1743一线，形成短线偏低位区间整理，维持日内较为强劲走低延续。晚间美盘开盘前后金价小幅上探1748一线后强势走低，美盘交易时间金价连续加速走低最低触及1731后上演短线V型反转。周六凌晨金价最高触及1746一线震荡收盘于1743附近。短线金价高位回落维持震荡走势，整体自1682一线较为强劲单边上行得到维持。周线收带上影线阳线结束两连跌，日线录得下影线较长阴线。

技术面，短期金价企稳于日线40日均线技术指标支撑位一线，形成日线技术指标支撑压力位区间窄幅整理。整体日线移动平均线呈粘合收窄形态，维持偏震荡趋势指引消化。4小时移动平均线整体仍呈较为强劲向上发散排列多头形态，随着回落幅度扩大，短期5日均线呈向下交叉形态，短期回落区间维持将进一步加剧短期震荡趋势维持预期。目前暂时不能确定到底是形成双底还是双顶，需等待1760-1676区间走出方向才能出结果。本周关注1760-1676大区间和1720-1760小区间，都可以在突破前尝试高抛低吸，确认突破后顺势跟进。

综上所述，那么在本周谭鑫晟还是会先以区间震荡对待，等确认出方向之后操作上再做进一步的跟随。即，黄金上方先关注上周五美盘反弹的高点1746-1748区域能否形成压制，其次是1751-1753Area and1757-1760区域的高点；下方先关注1741-1740Region, followed by1731-1730Area and1727-1725-1721；目前金价在1740关口上方小幅震荡，操作可先多单跟进一波，等待反弹受阻高位后在进行空单布局。

Reference suggestions for gold operations:

1Current price of gold1740-1741Long nearby, stop loss1738Next, let's take a look at the target first1746-1748Near the area, please take a look up1751-1753Nearby the area, held in a broken position

2Gold rebound1746-1748If there is effective obstruction near the area, empty orders will be placed to stop losses1753Go ahead, let's take a look at the target first1741-1740Near the area, take a look down1735-1730Nearby the area, held in a broken position

3、若黄金反弹突破1748压制则关注1751-1753区域的压制是否有效，有效则布局空单，止损1758Go ahead, let's take a look at the target first1745-1740Near the area, take a look down1735-1730Near the area

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作为一个合格的投资者需要谨记，大部分时间应该以观望为主，耐心等待最佳的时机，需要避免频繁进场，操作上不要试图抓获所有波幅，也不要奢望对每一段行情都判断正确，应该少而精！做之前规划好，做之后静心观，亏损中不乱方寸，回本盈利都是迟早的事，急功近利永远是大忌，尽量减少假设性的交易。因为，交易它不是计件的活，盈利与交易的次数没有必然的关联，次数少不一定代表赚的少。