陈亦博：今晚黄金白银TD纸黄金走势分析，附解套策略

　goldAnalysis of the latest market trend:



Analysis of Gold News: Monday（4month5日）亚洲时段，现货黄金几乎持稳，交投于1725附近。拜登于上周宣布了2.25The trillion dollar stimulus plan may continue to boost the rise in US bond yields and suppress gold prices, but the pandemic and the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy may hold gold prices firm. in additionETF持仓不断下滑及美国股市保持在记录高位、非农数据大幅好于预期都利空金价。华尔街分析师近期对金价看涨情绪有所改善，散户投资者则保持怀疑态度。金价短线若能突破1755附近，市场可能对黄金更有信心。本周重点关注美联储3月会议纪要及鲍威尔讲话，另外还有初请及美国PPI等重要数据出炉。



　　黄金技术面分析：黄金从盘面来看，月线价格在22月均线受支撑，本月预期先上后下，日图来观察，大阳绝地反击吃掉了周二失地，至少买盘力量强盛，所以这种力量还将延续，至少日图的大阳限制了今天下跌的空间，日线大阳，但整体只是下跌的一次大幅修正，说反转还为时过早，因为阳线拉升过度，均线跟不上，就是二次再次大幅上扬，日图还需一次二次的确认，由于周五休市，那时间预期会到下周二确认，所以从时间上看，多头还将延续。



　　黄金从四小时来看，当下价格上线遇阻后回落，出现这种形态，预期会出现两种情况，一是小幅回落直接拉升，形成冲高回落，二是金价经过拉升，对于均线来说直接大幅拉升时间不够，至少需要修正二到三根KThe confirmation of the official daily chart after a single upward trend can only be carried out, so for next week, there is a bias towards correction and the overbought space repair index is traded for time. Therefore, a single upward trend is not scary, and whether it can continue is the key. From the perspective of multi cycle quantification, the focus above the daily line is suppressed1738-1740Here, the upper limit is1760For the upcoming week60That's not realistic either. And the four hour chart is expected to repeat two to three timesKFrom a horizontal to vertical perspective, if the price rebound is too deep, it directly affects the continuity of the upward trend, so for the expected decline1705就是比较理想的多单入场点。综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上陈教授建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1735-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1715-1710Frontline support.


Paper Silver:



Paper silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a downward trend, and the upward structure of the four hour chart level fluctuation is extremely obvious. The moving average system presents a bullish pattern arrangement, and the thinking continues to be firm and bullish. Paper silver1The latest situation at the hour level. belong to1The overall hourly level maintains an upward trend, and there may be short-term setbacks within the day. The short-term operation maintains a much lower mentality, with the high point in the figure5.57-5.53Element is pressure,5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to5.0元支撑并没有受到破坏，所以陈教授认为纸白银重新上涨到5.32-5.57The probability is high. The paper silver cycle is still bullish, and there may be a rebound in the short term. In terms of operation, the main focus is still on low level layout.


　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



　　OPEC+将于周四(4month1day)举行月度例行会议讨论进一步产能分配问题，而业内机构澳新银行就此预测称，OPEC+对于需求前景的预估措辞料继续趋向保守，因而其大部分减产措施力度在此后也将同样继续延续下去；澳新银行分析师指出，OPEC秘书长巴尔金都日内在讲话中料继续强调疫情对需求的负面拖累影响，而这有当前法国再度陷入全面封锁以及意大利强化管控措施的举动作为佐证。因而OPEC+也会据此进一步强调油市需求前景的不确定性，未来挑战依旧存在。这一态度与此前相比并无变化；这一措辞对于油价走势将是双刃剑：一方面，OPEC+不急于大力增产，对于油市而言仍是利多消息，但是其所释放的悲观措辞在被市场咀嚼解读后，却又会反过来打压多头买需，因而NYMEX原油价格后市仍将因此继续围绕60美元关口展开激烈争夺。



From a daily perspective, it fluctuates;MACDThe dead cross signal continues, and the mid track of the Bollinger Line has a significant impact on oil prices. In the short term, there is a possibility of once again exploring the support of the offline track of the Bollinger Line. Currently57.02Nearby, if the support is breached, increase the neutral bearish signal; Further support reference2month4Daily low point55.30Nearby, then54.87Location, which is33.64-67.98Upward trend38.2%Retract position. Focus on100Daily moving average53.34Nearby support,1month13Daily high point53.93The location also needs attention, as it is located in the1The month is a period of strong resistance, which has now transformed into a period of strong support. Due to the interweaving of moving averages, the short-term variables are relatively large;KDJGold fork operation, oil prices still hold55Daily moving average59.15Above, if we regain the upward trend and break through the middle track of the Bollinger Line62.16Above, there will be an increase in bullish signals in the future.



　　4From an hour's perspective, it oscillates; Continue to pay attention to the middle track of the Bollinger Line58.74-62.06Regional breakthrough situation. at presentMACDDead fork, if it falls below the Brin line58.74Nearby support increases short-term bearish signals. becauseKDJApproaching the overbought area, if the oil price adheres to the support near the lower track of the Bollinger Line and rebounds to the middle track of the Bollinger Line60.40Above, short-term bullish signals will be added. Further reference57.25-63.13区域突破情况，该区域的突破将为中线走势指明方向。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上 个人建议以先空后多，上方关注62.0-62.5Resistance, short-term focus below60.0-59.5Frontline support.