Xiao Qiansheng:4.5黄金原油先跌后涨，实时行情走势解析

　　每次写分析，我都希望看到的朋友能有所收获，在这个市场上，平静的表现下其实暗波汹涌，很多投资朋友轻易的进入，往往遍体鳞伤，每天都有很多朋友找到我，寻求帮助，然而更多的只是看完分析后迅速的找到下一篇继续看。我希望我能帮助更多的人，就犹如我自己对这份工作的定位是服务一样，人与人之间是相互的，信任是合作的开始，如果你在投资道路上有所困惑和迷茫可以找我聊聊，说不定这将使你的投资之路好走很多.

I am Xiao Qiansheng (レ Xin:xqs59168）Currently, there is a significant impact on global financial markets (such as internationalgold，TDGold and silver,crude oil，foreign exchangeandfutures市场）具有深入而独特的见解、如果你有什么烦恼，苦闷可与我来聊聊。

　　黄金资讯分析：

　　上周五非农就业数据公布后，美元和美国国债收益率上行，美元指数重返93关口，最终收于93.02，涨0.11%。10年期美债收益率回升到1.70%上方，一度升破1.72%；2Year and5年期美债收益率分别创去年6Month and2月以来新高。数据显示，随着美国经济从疫情复苏速度加快，美国劳动力市场继续飙升。

　　强非农刺激美债利率与美元指数上行，高估值资产将继续承压。需要注意的是，上周五由于耶稣受难日假期的原因，除美债以外的美国金融市场大多休市，而美债也仅进行半天交易。所以，要小心黄金等上周五休市的品种在本周出现后续反应。

　　在欧美复活节和中国清明假期之后，本周全球市场将再度迎来一系列重磅事件。美联储、欧洲央行将公布货币政策会议纪要，投资者将密切关注其中有关通胀的任何新评论。美国将公布PPI、PMI数据，鲍威尔将参加国际货币基金组织的研讨会。

Gold market analysis:

　　上周黄金上演过山车的行情，周一周二破位放量走跌将近55美元，周三周四探底回升上涨52美元，基本是跌多少，又涨回来多少，将行情继续拉回区间震荡范围内。今日周一（4month5日）黄金早盘开盘承压小幅回落，继续处于1730-1725的上周五尾盘的修正区间范围内。显然黄金的反应有点小了，毕竟非农数据是创去年8月以来的最大涨幅，对于黄金是打压作用，但黄金开盘并未有太大的下跌，这就需要重点留意了！

　　本周一由于假期影响，市场交投可能会比较清淡一点，而黄金也面临着选择。现在金价重新回到双线区间的位置，以及通道线位置，选择哪一边将决定本周的区间范围，然后参考起涨点和起跌点看空间的切换，转变均是通过破起涨点和起跌点开始，从延续性开始加速。4小时双位置1725-1721是上周尾盘回踩确定的支撑位置，通道线压力1730关口，上周尾盘横盘1730-1725区域，刚好与双线的支撑区域进行重合。

　　那么，在接下来的行情中我们做两步走：首先，守住起涨点1705-1710区域，回踩确定支撑点1721之上也是箱体的区间切换道1722-1745范围内，站上1730将继续攀升寻找1740-1745的压力位置；其次，金价持续承压1730的通道上方区域无法突破，则金价还将回落寻找起涨点区域1710-1705范围以及1700关口，而双线区间作为减仓收获的点，震荡性中支撑阻力作用会不明显，直至偏离增强指引性。因此，对于今日的黄金来说，现在徘徊1730关口，最关键的便是关注此处得失了，一切重点在于延续性问题，从而切换区间。明确关键的支撑阻力位置，等待机会即可。

Reference suggestions for gold operations:

　　1Gold rebound1730-1736区域附近受阻做空，止损1740Go ahead, let's take a look at the target first1725-1721Area, take a look down1710-1705as well as1700Gateway

　　2Gold falling back1720-1721区域支撑有效做多，止损1715Next, let's take a look at the target first1730-1736Area, look up1740-1745Area, break hold

　　3、若黄金回落力度过大破位了1720关口，则下方做多时机在1710-1705Near the area

Analysis of the international crude oil market trend:

In the past week, international oil prices have shown an overall volatile trend,OPEC+Agreeing to gradually increase production is seen as a affirmation of demand growth expectations, global economic data is optimistic, global stock markets are rising, providing support for oil prices, butOPEC下调需求预期并上调供给预期，再加上欧美新冠疫情再度恶化，油价仍受到压制，投资者需要提防油价震荡下行的风险。OPEC+Reaching a gradual increase in production agreement is a positive expectation for sustained demand growth and still provides support for oil prices.

　　另一方面，埃及苏伊士运河的航运于周一（3month29日）恢复，此前在运河搁浅的长赐号集装箱船重新浮起，这一繁忙的航道已被堵塞近一周，对油价产生了一些拖累，因为这意味着之前受阻的原油供给将恢复。本周欧美多个国家新冠疫情有所恶化，这将打压原油的需求前景，令油价受到拖累。整体来看，尽管全球经济复苏前景比较乐观，在中长线支撑油价，但该利好之前已经基本被市场消化，而最近的新冠疫情恶化、伊朗出口增加、美元走强等因素，可能会促使油价进行持续上涨后的深度回调，未来一段时间，国际油价仍有震荡下跌的风险，投资者需要予以警惕。

　　原油从技术面来看，从周线上来看，原油自高位回落短期见顶后，周线三连阴，周四OPEC+Agreeing to gradually increase production is seen as a affirmation of demand growth expectations. Oil prices hit their largest increase in nearly a week on Thursday and closed for the first time this week with a positive cross star, changing the recent decline in oil pricesKDJDead fork,MADCFast and slow gold crosses, but red energy starts to shrink. Weekly moving average gold crosses, and there is a risk of a pullback in crude oil in the short term. However, the overall trend is still bullish. Pay attention below next week60.4Nearby support, further focus on medium rail54.4Support bullish sentiment, with a focus on the upper echelons63Nearby resistance, if it can break through63附近阻力，则进一步增加看涨信号，反之仍有回落风险！

　　日线上来看，周四大阳收线，指标上KDJThe golden cross, the daily moving average is reorganized into a golden cross upwards,MACDDead cross, green energy is gradually shrinking, indicating further signs of upward trend next week. However, crude oil has been in a broad and volatile market recently, and the overall pressure on the medium track is obvious. Therefore, next week we will focus on the gains and losses of the medium track. If we can effectively break through the medium track62附近阻力，则原油重拾涨势，反之则重归震荡行情，下方则关注5/10Daily moving average60.6-60.2Nearby support, further attention57附近支撑看涨！综合来看，今日短线操作思路上萧乾升建议以反弹做空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注62-62.5Resistance, short-term focus below57.8-58.3Frontline support.

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This article was submitted by Xiao Qiansheng. I have in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Professional and technical director Xiao Qiansheng has provided online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance on WeChat. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.