Chen Yibo:4.4黄金还会暴涨暴跌吗？黄金原油行情分析及原...

SpotgoldLondon Gold, Market Analysis:



In the past week, spot gold fell first and then rose. Optimistic economic data from multiple countries around the world further boosted the prospects of economic recovery, suppressing safe haven demand for gold. US dollar and bond yields rose, and gold prices fell to near a nine month low; but1676Strong support nearby, attracting bargain hunters to re-enter, Biden's2.25The trillion dollar stimulus plan also raised inflation expectations. As the US dollar and bond yields adjusted, gold prices launched a comeback, recovering most of the decline and closing in the report1729.31dollar/Ounces, weekly only decline0.19%. For the future market, professional investors and analysts are bullish, but there is a significant divergence in expectations among retail investors. This week, the overall economic data of China, Europe, the UK, and the US were relatively optimistic, boosting market risk appetite. Global stock markets generally rose, causing gold prices to plummet more than50USD to1677.5Near the US dollar. At the beginning of this week, driven by the strength of the US economy and the rise in US bond yields, the US dollar hit a new high in nearly five months93.44It also significantly suppresses the price of gold. United States10Treasury bond yield reached its highest level this week years ago1.774%, reaching a new high in over a year, is one of the reasons for the sharp drop in gold prices this week.



Golden perspective: On a weekly basis, it has hit a bottom twice this week and is expected to1676A double bottom support has formed nearby, and at the same time, this week's Gold Needle bottomed out and closed with a long and bearish shadow, indicating strong bottom support. This suggests that we will continue to focus on buying on dips next week, and pay attention below1720-1722Frontline support, further focus on dual bottoms1676Nearby strong support and bullish sentiment, but it is worth noting that the overall structure of gold is still bearish, with a dead cross arrangement of the cyclical moving average,MACDLow level dead cross with large volume fluctuations, the overall trend is still dominated by bears, and the short-term rebound is not a reversal. Pay attention to the upper level1765A line of resistance, looking at the daily chart, after the second dip of gold, the two major bullishes have risen in a straight line, successfully recovering the previous decline and stabilizing the Bollinger Bands in the middle track. CurrentlyKDJGolden fork,MACD趋向于金叉，红能开始放量，下周有进一步反弹趋势，不过值得注意的是，两日大阳拉升超过五十多美金，说明黄金涨势比较强，而布林带三轨开始走平，加上周五非农大幅利空，所以价格控盘陈亦博预计下周黄金先跌后涨，下周上方重点关注1755Nearby resistance, while focusing on the middle rail below1720-1722Frontline support.



Internationalcrude oilUS crude oil, market analysis:



In the past week, international oil prices have shown an overall volatile trend,OPEC+Agreeing to gradually increase production is seen as a affirmation of demand growth expectations, global economic data is optimistic, global stock markets are rising, providing support for oil prices, butOPECLower demand expectations and raise supply expectations, coupled with the worsening of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and the United States, oil prices are still being suppressed, and investors need to be wary of the risk of oil price shocks and downturns. Faced with external and internal pressure to increase production,OPEC+Thursday（4month1Agreed on (date)5-7The month gradually increases oil production. According to the statement of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan,OPEC+In less than a month, the second unexpected decision was made by the member states, who decided to5-7Month increases daily crude oil production by over100Ten thousand barrels; At the beginning of this week, there were widespread expectations from the outside worldOPEC+Possible extension of production restriction measures; butOPEC+Reaching a gradual increase in production agreement is a positive expectation for sustained demand growth and still provides support for oil prices.



Crude oil perspective:2021year4month3Number, as proof! Our small goal for crude oil this year is80Dollar, must arrive! On the weekly chart, after crude oil rebounded from its high level and peaked in the short term, the weekly chart remained negative for three consecutive days on ThursdayOPEC Agreeing to gradually increase production is seen as a affirmation of demand growth expectations. Oil prices hit their largest increase in nearly a week on Thursday and closed for the first time this week with a positive cross star, changing the recent decline in oil pricesKDJDead fork,MADCFast and slow gold crosses, but red energy starts to shrink. Weekly moving average gold crosses, and there is a risk of a pullback in crude oil in the short term. However, the overall trend is still bullish. Pay attention below next week60.4Nearby support, further focus on medium rail54.4Support bullish sentiment, with a focus on the upper echelons63Nearby resistance, if it can break through63If there is resistance nearby, it will further increase the bullish signal, otherwise there is still a risk of falling back! On a daily basis, Thursday's strong yang closed, with indicators showingKDJThe golden cross, the daily moving average is reorganized into a golden cross upwards,MACDDead cross, green energy is gradually shrinking, indicating further signs of upward trend next week. However, crude oil has been in a broad and volatile market recently, and the overall pressure on the medium track is obvious. Therefore, next week we will focus on the gains and losses of the medium track. If we can effectively break through the medium track62附近阻力，则原油重拾涨势，反之则重归震荡行情，操作上价格控盘陈亦博建议下方则关注5/10Daily moving average60.6-60.2Nearby support, further attention57Nearby support is bullish!


　　价格控盘亦博操作理念：



　　1：做好风险防控的方案以及仓位的把控是价格控盘亦博一直强调的，不去重仓去博取短期的获利，投资不是D.Bo, real-time judgment, analysis, and grasp of the safety of my own position are the primary prerequisites! Believe it, if you want to win the nightFIf there is an opportunity for a position, it will encounter a market situation where the position is suddenly sold out. To prudently control risks and develop effective risk prevention and control plans! Profit is not a rush for success!



　　2：实时规划好交易的细则，每日的交易不用过于频繁，老陈认为实时的分析判断好，把握住区间的波幅，实时的获利即可。多次频繁的交易，会让自己失去判断，从而打乱一个整体的思路。亏损后，再次盲目的挽回损失，从而陷入一个恶性循环！账户的资金只会日益减少！



　　3Don't blindly carry orders. Sometimes, we can judge the market in real time. If there are unexpected fluctuations in the market, we can resist them if we have a good grasp of our positions. If we cannot grasp everything well and our positions are also randomly arranged, then we should not easily carry orders. Losses will also be an unbearable burden!