Chen Yibo: Is the Suez Canal Blocked and Crude Oil plummeting? Attached are the latest gold and crude oil operations...

　goldMessage surface parsing:3month29On the same day, spot gold fell again as the US dollar index held a strong start to the week, hitting2020year11New high in mid month92.92The economic recovery and vaccination progress in the United States are faster than in other developed countries, attracting investors to flock to the US dollar. This week, investors will mainly focus on the details of Biden's upcoming infrastructure spending plan, as well as3US non farm employment data for the month.3The monthly employment report will be the first report of the year to show meaningful progress in the recovery of the job market. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped to a one-year low last week. US President Biden said he will raise his vaccination target, which was already ahead of his 100 million dose target42Days to complete. On the other hand, in Europe, the progress of vaccination has been delayed due to supply issues and safety concerns, and there has been a new wave of epidemics. France and Germany may tighten epidemic control measures, dragging down the short-term economic prospects of Europe. Last week, Chicago Fed Chairman Evans told reporters that he believes the task of raising inflation in the United States is no longer easy, but he believes that Europe's challenge in this regard will be more difficult than the United States'. This week, investors will mainly focus on the details of Biden's upcoming infrastructure spending plan, as well as3US non farm employment data for the month.



Gold Technology: From4From an hourly perspective, the gold price of the Bollinger Belt has flattened and narrowed in three tracks, and the gold price is currently oscillating between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Belt. Short term moving averageEMA5AndEMA10Maintain a cementing situation on both tracks,MACDIndicator kinetic energy column0Extremely reduced near the axis, with double-line bonding and leveling,RSIIndicator in43Near the location,KDJRunning downwards, the indicator is empty.4After the hourly gold price bottomed out and rebounded, the high level was hindered and fell back. Currently, it is still fluctuating within the triangular range, please be patient and wait1760Breaking through the range is sufficient. Chen Yibo believes that after a steady break, one can follow a trend with the trend, and before a radical break, one can sell high and buy low within the range. In terms of form, while looking at volatility, it is necessary to be cautious of the occurrence of a break in the day. Of course, breaking here does not mean that the market will enter a unilateral upward or downward pattern. At a low point1700and1676On the premise of not breaking and not opening the daily distribution belt, the breaking of the short line is seen as a stretching of the long short range rather than a reversal of the overall pattern. This requires a clear boundary, otherwise the subsequent operations will easily fall into the pursuit of orders. Only need to test again1700-1676Only by not falling below here can we truly build a bottom and be more favorable for future gains. From a comprehensive perspective, Chen Yibo suggests that in the short-term operation of gold, the main focus should be on a pullback to the low end, supplemented by a rebound to the high end, with a focus on short-term operations above1730-1736Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1697-1700Frontline support.



　　crude oilSuggestions and news for the day



Monday（3month29During the Asian period, US crude oil slightly weakened, and the Changci Super Large Cargo Cruise Line was "approaching the right direction", dragging down oil prices as supply constraints may ease. However, the global economic outlook is optimistic, and the global stock market is generally rising, still providing support for oil prices. Technically speaking, oil prices fluctuate in the short term, slightly leaning towards a downward trend of volatility.



The US dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to the US dollar due to the strength of the US economy and faster progress in vaccination compared to Europe. African American currencies fell collectively, European currencies fell slightly, and the third wave of COVID-19 epidemic in Europe became urgent, which made the leaders of France and Germany face the pressure to impose a stricter blockade. The decline in commodity currencies was slightly larger. Spot gold slightly declined, dragged down by the strengthening US dollar, and as the economy recovers and vaccination rates increase, investors' preference for risky assets increases, which weakens gold's safe haven position. Meiyou plummeted and surpassed2%Due to reports that the Changci cargo ship has emerged, media previously reported that the removal of the "Changci" container ship that blocked the Suez Canal would have to wait at least until this Wednesday.



In terms of crude oil, this month's oil price surged to67.9Afterwards, there was a continuous decline, and the early economic optimism drove the rise of crude oil. As the inventory of crude oil increased at the end of the month, it was mainly affected by the resurgence of the epidemic, leading to the current decline in crude oil prices. From a monthly perspective, the price remained at53.5On the upside, we can continue to maintain the mid-term upward trend, with weekly pricesKThe line continues to decline, and the technical indicators are on the short side. The lower middle track is supported by54Nearby, considering the overall trend, the mid-term crude oil price is still in a bearish trend,



In the short term, after the crude oil on the daily line fell below the upward trend line last time,KThe overall pressure on the middle rail is obvious, and the upper part is affected byMA10Diurnal*Continuously falling, only after the key below has passed, still paying attention57Nearby, if further downward, pay attention53.5-54Interval support,4Looking at the hourly trend, the current price has fallen below the medium track, with the top61.3Nearby double top resistance, technical indicators are all in a short position, and it is recommended to rebound and short during daytime operations. Please pay attention to the above60.5nearbyMA5Daily resistance, looking at the target below57.2-58section.