Xiao Yikun:3.25黄金震荡偏空，警惕空头砸盘

　　goldMarket trend analysis;

Thursday（3month25日）亚盘开场现货黄金小幅震荡，交投于1733附近。昨日金价涨0.44%，尽管美元上涨，美联储主席鲍威尔再次表示将维持利率在近零水平以及苏伊士运河被堵，令避险黄金获得支撑。另外，耐用品订单意外下降也利多金价。不过美元指数的强势限制了金价的涨势，SPDR持仓减少也显示机构并不看好金价。疫苗方面，欧盟与英国释放冰释前嫌信号，商讨疫苗分配具体做法，这有望降低市场的避险情绪。短线震荡偏空，仍然受制于上方趋势线的压力，中长线看跌趋势不变。

　　黄金技术面来看，昨日价格整体偏震荡回弹，连续多次测压5、10Daily line1735But in the end, it did not make it to the station. The daily line received a small yang, and in terms of daily structure, although the yang line was closed yesterday, it did not make it to the station5、10Above the daily line, it is still near the pressure of the medium rail. Currently, the market is trading within the middle layer of the moving average. According to the technical structure, although its performance is relatively strong, there is no effective rebound momentum, making it difficult to get rid of the overall weak situation. The smooth downward trend of the medium rail has laid the foundation for a decline. The technical indicators of the daily lineKDJThree line bonding downwards,MACDThe momentum has decreased, and prices are showing a further downward trend.4From an hourly perspective, the current price trading is near the middle track, with signs of downward development in the moving average oil, with the Bollinger band facing downwards and upward1740Becoming a key resistance during the day, with attention below1725Short term support, currently gold is still in a narrow range of fluctuations. Can we take a new direction and pay attention to the situation of range breaking, technical indicatorsKDJThree line bonding upwards,MACD绿色动能柱缩减，综合来看，日间价格有望再次反弹，今日操作上萧亦坤老师建议反弹做空，关注区间破位延续性。短期上方关注1745One line of resistance, pay attention below1720-1725Frontline support.

　　黄金操作：1740-43Short range, stop loss1746

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;

Thursday（3month25日）亚洲时段，美国原油低开低走，一度跌破60大关。周三(3month24日）油价暴涨逾6%，几乎收复前一日所有亏损，因长荣海运巨型货柜轮长赐轮在苏伊士运河搁浅，以致往来海运受阻。另外，在即将到来的OPEC+会议上，OPEC+或维持减产规模不变。不过，EIA原油库存超预期增加以及欧洲疫情的加剧仍限制了油价的涨幅。短期美油或维持跌势，短线回调结束后，中长线涨势仍有望保持。萧亦坤老师认为尽管周三有稍微倾向不利的报告，但今日油价走势仍持续被苏伊士运河阻塞的消息所掩盖，因为该运输枢纽是许多商品的关键，尤其是原油。但运河受阻的影响是短暂的，一旦该处再次通行舒畅，油价将可能返回压力底下。

　　原油从技术面来看，日线级别，单边上涨受阻后转跌；油价周二的下跌基本符合之前的判断，MACDDeadfork signal continuation,KDJDeadfork signal continuation,10日均线初步下穿21日均线，油价初步失守55Daily moving average58.28关键支撑（也正是上周四低点支撑所在），增加了短线看空信号。小时级别，原油自67.98The downward trend of the US dollar openingA浪走势可能已经在57.26美元终结。若油价迎来B浪反弹，上方目标位看向59.79USD and61.36美元，它们分别是AWavelike23.6%and38.2%斐波那契回档位。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上萧亦坤老师个人建议以高空为主，低多为辅。上方短期重点关注61.8-62.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below59.0-58.5Frontline support.

Suggestions for crude oil operation:60.5-60.8Empty order entry, stop loss61.45

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　　免责声明：本文章由萧亦坤（xyk66099）撰写，分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金管理和风险控制，无风控不交易，不要让交易失控,文章具有滞后性，据此操作，盈亏自负，投资有风险，入市需谨慎

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