Analysis of crude oil message surface: 稍早公布的国际能源信息署(IEA)月报显示,预计2021年下半年石油库存将“急剧”下降。由于供应仍然充足,IEA认为不会出现石油超级周期,更强劲的需求,OPEC+产量限制将导致下半年库存大幅下降。IEABelieving that to3.18The annual oil demand will recover to2019Annual level,2021Annual oil demand will increase55010000 barrels/Day, reach965010000 barrels/Today, oil inventories still seem sufficient, and a large amount of idle production capacity has been established. The possibility of a new oil super cycle supply shortage is unlikely. Due to the cold wave in the United States and reduced production in Saudi Arabia,2The global oil supply decreased in the month20010000 barrels/日。王添宝认为,由于欧洲疫苗推广停滞,市场对需求的担忧遏制了原本上涨的行情。
原油技术面:美油昨日如预期承压震荡回修,下方低点回撤至63.8一线,后半夜API原油库存数据意外减少,致油价有所反弹,日线收得一带下影线的阴星线。日线结构上,美油整体依旧处在5、10Daily line65下方运行,表明短线技术结构重心还是有所下倾的,有较大的回落调整预期,下方或可关注20Daily line63一线争夺情况,如果行情跌破此位,则美油或将展开中线级别的调整回修,而如果20日线不破,则短线美油依然可能保持居高,但也很难再有维持强势拉升的技术动能。操作上王添宝建议关注上方5、10Daily line65.8-66First line, follow below20Daily line63Nearby support testing.