Xie Hongyuan:3.16黄金思路参考建议，黄金原油涨跌分析

internationalgoldMessage surface parsing:

Monday(3month15day)欧市盘中，现货黄金有所反弹，由此前跌至的1700美元大关下方回升近30USD, to1730美元关口徘徊。黄金由此日内恢复涨势，目前涨幅约为0.5%，同时这也是黄金连续第二日上涨，主要得益于美债收益率的温和回落。由于新冠病毒疫苗注射速度，投资者对于美国经济前景依然乐观，此外再加上美国批准大规模的刺激计划一直点燃再通胀交易并迫使投资者开始定价美国通胀可能会开始上升。这推动10年期美债收益率上周五突破一年多高点。不过美联储将采取行动遏制长期收益率飙升的预期给债市交易员带来一些纾解。因此本周美联储决议公布之前其上涨完全受一些空头回补的推动。不过多重因素阻止多头大举加仓，抑制金价强势上涨。美国经济加快复苏前景继续支撑美元，打压金价。此外金融市场潜在的看涨情绪(股市上涨)可能会进一步抑制金价涨势，至少目前如此。

国际黄金实时行情走势分析：

黄金价格在周一亚市开盘后小幅走高，但暂时缺少进一步上攻的动能，在本周美联储政策会议来袭前，市场料仍受相对谨慎情绪支配，令主要交易品种陷入区间震荡行情。从日线来看：相对低位震荡；KDJGolden fork,MACDGolden fork,5Daily moving average10日均线，短线略微偏向多头，继续关注近两周高点1740Resistance and20日均线阻力，目前20Daily moving average resistance1746.32dollar/盎司附近，若能顶破该阻力，则有望进一步涨向2month19Daily low point1760附近。从目前来看1740附近阻力还比较强，金价连续两个交易日上冲受阻，仍需要提防金价重回跌势的风险，目前10The daily moving average is supported by1714.68Nearby, strongly supported1700关口附近，若下破该支撑，则增加短线看空信号。下方留意布林线中轨1715.51附近支撑，若下破该支撑，则增加短线下行风险。综合来看，今日操作上建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1740-1745Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1720-1715Frontline support.

crude oilAnalysis of the latest market trend:

原油消息面解析：周一（3month15日），国际油价上涨，ICEBrent crude oilfuturesRedirect to each barrel70The US dollar has advanced as data shows2021At the beginning of the year, China's accelerated economic recovery boosted the energy demand prospects of the world's largest oil importing country. Senior Indian officials have criticized in recent weeksOPEC+“人为削减石油产量，并哄抬油价”。石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）在本月稍早决定将多数减产计划延长至4This month, it sparked dissatisfaction from India, the world's third largest crude oil importer. India's fuel demand has almost recovered to the level before the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, but the rise in oil prices and fuel taxes have made the country's fuel prices hit a record high, threatening the recovery of consumption. India approximately80%China's oil consumption relies on imports, but has always been uneasy about the rise in oil prices, which has pushed up its oil import costs and domestic inflation, and may undermine the monetary policy implemented by the Bank of India to support economic growth this year.

Technical aspects of crude oil:

　　原油上周自周一早间跳涨，最高上涨到达68, but failed to continue the continuity2The world fell, reaching its lowest point on Wednesday63.1Afterwards, it began to rebound and fluctuated on Thursday and Friday, reaching a maximum of66.2, ultimately received at65.58Weekly closing with a cross star, oil prices have been continuously rising nearly5Six months ago, and the current price of oil has returned to pre pandemic levels, although the current trend is still bullish66We still need to be cautious in pursuing more from above. Although there is room for an increase in oil prices on the monthly line, they are nearing the upper bound70Suppression, limited space above, focus on this week first68Whether the frontline can break through or not depends on the correction and volatility of the bulls, with weekly oil prices relying onMA5Going up in multiple directions, from a morphological perspectiveMA5brace63.5The top will continue to rise, while last week's low was at63.1So this week, let's take a look at the ideas first63-68Range, see long instead of chasing long, high altitude low, break level and then look forward to extending, the four hour line and hour line are parallel to each other, and the oil price shows a short-term trend67-63.5Oscillation, last Friday at65.5-66.2Narrow range oscillation, you can focus on the breakthrough of this range first, and pay attention to it above66.8一线。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注65.5-66.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below63.8-63.3Frontline support.