Xie Hongyuan:3.12黄金原油午间操作建议及走势分析

3.12goldMarket trend analysis:

黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日走出典型的冲高回落破底，白盘接连拉高上涨，碎阳逼空式的上行，一路运行到1739，美盘前后持续小区间震荡横盘，随后直接走出反向暴跌，打破日内低点1723, lowest touch1719一线企稳，日线报收长上影线小阴线。美债收益率回升令黄金承压，此外美股大涨也削弱了避险黄金的吸引力。

技术面来看，本周日线将修正行情表现的很彻底，在日线上也没有明确的多空信号，周初从1676to1740的大幅上涨，已经改变了此前空头趋势的运行，价格转为震荡偏多，而昨日从1740reach1719的下跌，则是改变了多头趋势的运行，价格转为震荡偏空，昨日首次在1740一线遇阻收低，今日短线不破1740则提前看回落，1Hours and4小时短线周期的回撤下来之后，短线已经逐步走弱，预期今日还能继续跌破日内低点，上破也只是短线震荡上移区间，今日直接反转的机率相对较小，毕竟离上方临界点1760还有较大距离，而昨日晚间开跌口1737一线成为今日多空强弱重要分水岭，综合来看，今日黄金操作思路上谢鸿远建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1737-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1708-1710Frontline support.

3.12Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:

Empty order strategy:

Gold rebound1735-1738Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss5Points, target1725-1715Nearby, break down and take a look1710frontline;

Multiple order strategy:

Gold Callback1710-1712Nearby long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1720-1730Nearby, break down and take a look1735frontline;

crude oilMarket trend analysis:

原油消息面解析：周四（3month11日）美原油震荡微涨，隔夜出炉的数据显示美国汽油库存继续大幅下降，美国众议院通过1.9万亿刺激计划，给油价提供支撑。不过，美国原油库存大幅增加，油价长期持续上涨后，获利了结需求仍存，限制油价的上涨空间。周三美油涨1.36%to64.69dollar/Barrel, due to accelerated vaccine promotion, optimistic global economic recovery estimates, and a significant decline in US gasoline inventory, but last month's surge in crude oil inventory after a cold wave in Texas limited the increase in oil prices. In addition, the passing of the Biden stimulus bill through Congress has also boosted the confidence of oil market bulls. However, Saudi Arabia2The monthly reduction in production is only60万桶，这限制了油价进一步的涨势。短线油价涨势稍缓，可能进行高位盘整。刺激案的推出提振了市场对经济复苏的预期，这将有利于加快油市需求的复苏。随着寒潮过去，天气转暖，美国将进入旅游旺季，石油消费将有所提升，这有可能进一步推升原油价格。沙特减产幅度不及预期可能拖累油价上涨。

　　原油技术面显示，单边上涨后高位震荡；MACDHigh position bonding after top deviation,KDJ粘合，均线轻微多头排列，短线走势变数较大，上方留意周二高点65.95Nearby resistance, if it is breached, there is a possibility of retesting recent highs67.98Nearby resistance. Given thatMACDTop deviation signal,K线高位的“乌云盖顶”顶部信号仍在，油价震荡筑顶的可能性也比较高。下方10The daily moving average is supported by63.08Nearby,20The daily moving average is supported by61.91附近，若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号。秦泽冉认为进一步支撑在60Integer level, then2month19Daily low point58.60Nearby support,12month12Daily low point support at57.41附近。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上秦泽冉建议以回调低多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注66.8-67.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below64.6-64.1Frontline support.