Li Lianying:3.5非农来袭谨防黑天鹅。黄金白银TD最新行情分析...

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    Spotgold行情走势分析————

Thursday(3month4day)Shanghai Gold Exchange GoldT+DClosing down0.77%to358.7element/Gram; silverT+DClosing down1.49%to5341element/千克。金价收盘下跌，主要因为美债收益率上涨的态势继续引发担忧，投资者抛售非孳息的资产黄金，从而转投其他高息资产，这给金价带来沉重压力。此外隔夜美联储褐皮书显示美国经济温和复苏也给金价压力。分析师表示：“只是技术性反弹，黄金的整体基本面仍然偏向下档——美元跌势逆转，美债收益率上扬，都不利于金价。”他称，黄金的避险吸引力已经降低。

　　黄金从技术面看，从日线来看，金价短期形态仍受此前下跌影响令多头压力重重，本周整体表现虽居于震荡，但金价下行势头并未因此而有所缓和，后市料继续下探寻找更低概率较大，短期操作或仍高空思路为主。1-4小时级别，短线价格表现本周正经历此前跌破后调整过程，结合上一轮下跌后调整形态对比，当前调整阶段或进一步弱化金价后市预期，短期走势或围绕本周震荡区间完善整合后继续下探。投资者重点关注1725白盘高点阻力位，昨日黄金在已经回落至1710附近，目前在1710附近震荡，今日先以空为主。联赢认为下方支撑1695、1702Area, falling below1702支撑将令金价面临跌破1700关口并加速跌向1675-1670的风险。该位构成强劲支撑，若破将铺平延续近7个月跌势的道路。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李联赢建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1728-1733Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1680-1685Frontline support.

  　crude oilRelated information:

In terms of crude oil,3month4日亚市盘，美原油震荡微涨，目前交投于61.34dollar/桶附近，涨幅约0.1%；周三因为汽油库存大幅下降，而且市场对OPEC+延长减产期限的预期升温，帮助油价大幅上涨近3%。NYMEX原油在周四亚洲时段重拾升势，触及日高61.49美元，因时段内美元指数有所回落，而市场同时继续看好全球能源市场未来需求前景，并因而在供给补充可能难以及时跟进这一大背景下，继续看多油价前景；隔夜库存数据虽然显示原油库存大量增长，但是成品油库存却因为早先炼厂活动受雪灾影响的状况而创纪录减少，这意味着未来需求仍将报复性反弹，对原油价格构成持续性利多。另一方面，投资者却不看好OPEC+会在本周的会议上作出强力增产决定，充其量只是按步就班继续按月增加每日50万桶产能，这对于油价有着进一步拉动效果；因而，在周三的反弹大涨之后，油市中期上行趋势重新得到了接续，在此后全球经济前景仍将随着疫苗普遍接种而好转的大背景下，美油仍面临进一步升向65美元的前景。而OPEC+何时会进一步乃至全面恢复产能的预期，将很大程度决定油价最终的反弹高度。

Analysis of International Crude Oil Trends:

　　日线来看，周三未能延续周二跌势展开反弹，日线连阴后首次收阳，但是短线刺破MA5/10日均线收于附近，暗示上方仍然压力重重，指标上MACD快慢线死叉，绿能持续放量，MA5日均线由升转跌，向下运行并下穿10The daily moving average forms a dead fork,KDJ死叉于超卖区域拐头向上，说明原油虽小有反弹但是仍有再次下跌的迹象，上方初步关注62.9Nearby resistance, further attention63.78高点阻力看空！下方关注中轨60附近支撑！四小时来看，原油于下轨止跌反弹，当前布林带三轨走平，MA短期均线重新结成金叉向上运行，MACDstay0轴下方金叉向上，绿能转换为红能持续放量，KDJ三线开口向上，短线来看原油有进一步反弹迹象。

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  This article is provided by Li Lianying. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying solves a set online, returns losses, and provides real-time guidance on WeChat one-on-one. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.