王德诚：涨上续涨，25日橡胶玻璃棕榈油螺纹钢期货行情分析

   A new year and a new beginning, shedding the burdens of yesterday and embarking on a new journey. I won't say much about the words of blessings here. Let me talk about practical issues from a practical perspective. The first point is that after paying salaries during the Chinese New Year, some investment friends should not be swayed. Investment carries risks and still needs to be treated rationally. The author strongly recommends that you do not invest too much money in trading. The second point is the old saying that you must bring stop loss trading, otherwise you will always be trapped. Decoupling is really a detestable thing. If you encounter unilateral market trends, it is easy to sell your orders. The third point is that as long as your orders are profitable15If it is more than one point, it is important to remember to bring a breakeven loss to avoid profitable orders turning into losses in the end. The fourth point is that some of your families grow apples, soybeans, and raise chickens to make glassfuturesBig shot, don't assume that you are familiar with the spot market and have a long-term layout of heavy positions. Heavy positions may not yield good results. If you don't believe it, take a look at Fu Xiaojun. No matter how big your funds are, you cannot compete with the control of professional main institutions. Heartfelt words, I hope all of you can listen.

   

    好了，言归正传。现在开始分析橡胶、玻璃、棕榈油、螺纹钢主力期货的后市行情走势。

　橡胶主力合约：

　　今日橡胶延续强势上涨400Report at around o'clock16160大阳线走势，供给方面：国内产区全面进入停割期，浓缩胶乳和全乳胶生产线停工，其它类型天然橡胶加工线也将陆续停工，国内新增供应趋于零。2021 last year 2 个月，泰国天然橡胶产量同比增 20.9%，越南增 3.0%，马来西亚增 2.5%。我国进口量、库存量均处于较高位。需求方面：2020 year 1-11 月累计，橡胶与塑料制品业规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增 25.3%，行业整体效益提升，提振天然橡胶消费信心。用于医用手套的浓缩乳胶需求旺盛，英国、日本等陆续采取更为严格的疫情管控措施，抑制经济活动，国际订单向国内转移将持续，为统筹春节后生产安排，部分下游制品企业在节前增加天然橡胶等原料库存。

　  短线操作上，橡胶2105合约，橡胶蓄势发力大幅拉升阶段行情，后期有望延续剧烈波动上涨走势，笔者王德诚建议橡胶回调15950Support multiple orders entering in batches above.

Glass main contract:

   今日玻璃小区间波动蓄势发力上行几十点报收1988小阳线，市场概述国内浮法玻璃现货市场趋稳运行，终端企业多数放假，场内需求几无，全国浮法玻璃均价在2046element/吨，环比持平。终端基本放假，贸易环节相对匮乏，市场交投清淡。供应分析国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计288条，其中在产251条，冷修停产37条，浮法产业企业开工率为87.15%The capacity utilization rate is87.77%。上下游分析上游：国内纯碱市场变化不大，整体以稳为主，市场成交少。据了解，当前纯碱企业装置生产正常，产量稳定，周内产量略有增加。从往年看，节前企业出货，清理库存，春节期间产大于销，企业库存会保持增加趋势。

　　短线操作上，玻璃2105合约，玻璃高位剧烈波动逐渐走强走势行情，有望延续上攻行情为主，笔者建议回调1965Support multiple orders entering in batches above.

　　

   棕油主力合约：

　　今日棕榈油逐渐发力走强150Report at around o'clock7484大阳线形态，马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油期货下跌，因为马来西亚维持3月份棕榈油出口税，但是外部市场上涨，有助于限制棕榈油跌幅。截至中午，棕榈油期货下跌49令吉到69令吉不等，其中基准的2021year4月毛棕榈油期约下跌68令吉，报收3564令吉/吨。上午交易区间在3549令吉到3600令吉。马来西亚棕榈油局周四称，3月份毛棕榈油出口税为8%，但是基础价格调高到3977.36令吉/吨。在周四亚洲电子盘交易时间，豆油期货上涨0.3%。截至美国中部时间22.09，3月豆油上涨0.15美分，报每磅46.29cent.

　 短线操作上，棕榈油2105合约，棕榈油高位剧烈波动走强阶段走势行情，目前走势有望延续冲高调整行情为主，笔者建议棕榈油行情回调7450Support multiple orders entering in batches above.

　

　螺纹钢主力合约：

　今日螺纹钢区间波动蓄势发力上涨100Report at around o'clock4618一带，建筑工地处于全面停工状态，而高炉生产基本正常，这必然导致螺纹钢库存大量累积。我们认为，今年春节期间的库存积累幅度或高于往年。一是螺纹钢产量处于历史同期最高。数据显示，2021年春节前最后一周，螺纹钢周产量为321.95万吨。而2020年春节前最后一周，螺纹钢周产量为307.54万吨；2019年春节前最后一周，螺纹钢周产量为297.86万吨。二是今年春节前最后一期数据与春节后第一期数据的时间间隔更长。综合分析，我们认为，春节后首期数据显示的螺纹钢库存总量或在1400Wanzhi1500Ten thousand tons.

　 短线操作上，螺纹钢2105合约，螺纹钢蓄势发力逐渐上涨行情走势形态，日线级别有望冲高行情走势，笔者王德诚建议螺纹钢回调4560Support the strategy of multiple entry orders in batches above, and pay attention in the short term4632and4650分批止盈保护，中长线持有扩大利润为主。

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。