Li Lianying:2.24黄金还会跌吗？最新行情走势分析及原油操作...

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　　———现货goldquotations analysis

　　金价周二在震荡中小幅下跌，因美元收复了美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话后的失地，鲍威尔称，经济复苏"不均衡且远未完成"；美国黄金futures结算价报每盎司1805.90USD, down0.1%；鲍威尔发表评论后，美元应声下跌，金价一度由跌转升；鲍威尔表示，美联储还需要“一段时间”才会考虑改变其为帮助经济恢复充分就业而采取的政策，他“预计通胀不会升至令人不安的水平”；鲍威尔在参议院作证时市场有些波动，但他并没有说什么会引发市场震荡的话，尽管市场波动，但我们没有看到公债收益率或美元汇率出现任何重大的方向性走势，这就是为什么金价只是小幅下跌，对美元略微走高作出反应；金价周一上涨1.5%，因通胀上升的前景引发了对股票估值的担忧，促使投资者转向避险金属；

　　从现货黄金日线图看，昨日金价大幅反弹录得大实体阳线形态，价格突破MA5均线压力，但需要注意MACD指标双线仍没出现金叉信号，暗示变盘信号尚未得到确认，上方临近MA20均线压力且价格远离MA5均线支撑，为日内进一步反弹带来难度，下方需留意MA5均线支撑效果。李联赢从黄金4小时来看，昨日现货黄金价格大幅走强，在突破1790一线压力位置回踩确认站稳之后往1800上方进发，最高一度反弹至1810一线上方位置，现阶段金价仍在反弹走势当中，虽然价格仍处于四小时级别MA5均线之上，但KDJ指标三线走高暗示价格进入超买状态，日内恐有回调过程的出现，亚欧盘需留意MA5均线的支撑有效性。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上李联赢建议低多为主，高空为辅，上方关注1825-1830One line of resistance, pay attention below1790-1785Frontline support.

  crude oilRelated information:

　　消息人士称，美国南部页岩油生产商可能至少需要两周时间才能恢复因寒冷天气而关闭的200多万桶/天的原油产量，因为管道冻结和电力供应中断减缓了它们的复苏。托克集团预计石油市场未来数月将更加坚挺，因为全球大部分地区将解除防疫封锁，加之美国近期极寒天气造成产量下降，都将使供应前景趋紧。这家大宗商品交易巨头的石油交易联席主管接受采访时表示，进入夏季市场会有强劲表现，我们肯定非常看好今年夏天全世界多数地区解除封锁的前景。德克萨斯州的情况也给了市场动力。同时，市场可能低估了上周美国中部遭遇空前寒流的影响。2月份产出因此损失了大约4000万桶，大部分来自二叠纪盆地，成品油产出也可能有类似程度的损失。另外他表示，大约5%停产的油井可能永远都不会复工。尽管目前还无法全面评估近期寒潮的影响，但未来数周美国原油和成品油数字可能会大幅下降，从而进一步帮助石油市场。

　国际原油走势分析：

　　原油昨日开盘后回落61.6附近在反弹上探63Nearby, exploring the descent60.65Nearby, explore on the rebound62Nearby, closing61.2dollar/桶，日线KDJGolden fork,MACD维持金叉，双线上行，红柱缩短后再度放大。周一油价强势大涨，一举收复前两个交易日的失地，这是后市继续看涨的信号，因此日内投资者可以择机逢低入场做多。上周最后两个交易日的回调一度引发油价将大幅下跌的担忧，不过周一大量买盘的涌入让市场确认多头并未撤场，且市场看涨情绪依然强烈，这波单边行情的结束或许要等到基本面消息转入极度的悲观之后。上行方面，投资者可以关注日内高点63的阻力，进一步关注各个整数关口的阻力。下方初步支撑关注5Daily moving average61.15Further support attention10The location of the daily moving average60.20附近，若跌破10日均线需引起投资者足够的关注。中长线来看，美油上涨趋势不变，单边行情仍未有筑顶迹象。综合来看李联赢认为，今日操作上考虑高空低多策略，上方关注63.0-64.0dollar/Bucket, follow below60.3-59.3dollar/Bucket.

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  This article is provided by Li Lianying. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.