Wang Decheng:2.4Fundamental Analysis and Market Trends of Japanese Egg Threaded Steel Coke Soybean Meal Futures...

    Before writing the market analysis, let me talk about the matter of hedging: Today I want to talk about a very important point, and I hope all investment friends can listen to it. Everyone must bring a stop loss when placing orders, and never lock up positions. Essentially, locking up positions is a form of denying one's misjudgment of the market. On the surface, he appears to have kept your position safe, but in reality, he has taken up your funds and risk rate. After locking the position, he becomes hesitant when it comes to placing orders. Many people are reluctant to stop losses and like to lock up their positions. They always think that if the market rises, they will make a profit by taking more orders and can take out more orders, Then when the market falls, I will take out short orders. This way, not only can I make a profit, but I can also solve the problem at the same time, killing two birds with one stone. This is a beautiful idea, but in reality, it is often not like that. When the market really rises, they won't dare to level their long positions. They are afraid that if their long positions are tied, the market will continue to rise. This way, the short positions will become deeper and deeper, so they have to bear it all the time. In the end, they will waste overnight fees for nothing until their positions are liquidated. So, never lock up your position, always bring a stop loss. Otherwise, it will only be a repeat of the bloody failures of previous investors.

    Alright, let's start analyzing the main ingredients of eggs, rebar, coke, and soybean mealfuturesFutures market trend in the future. The Chinese New Year is coming up soon, and I wish everyone a smooth investment and a prosperous year in the coming days.

   Egg Main Contract:

   Egg futures operation big market trend From a supply side perspective, overall, after2020After a long period of reducing production capacity, the inventory of laying hens in China has dropped significantly from a high level and has now dropped to a historical low for the same period, greatly easing the pressure on the egg supply side. According to data from Zhuochuang, as of the end of last year, the inventory of laying hens in China continued to decline12.119 Billion units, decreased month on month2.86%Year-on-year decline 5.34%In terms of eliminating chickens, it is generally necessary to wait until the laying hens have reached480-500In the future, farmers will choose to eliminate old chickens. In addition to natural laws, the amount of eliminated chickens sold should be closely related to breeding profits, especially when breeding profits enter a loss state and the price difference between chickens and eggs is high, breeding units will choose to eliminate a large number of old chickens, and the age of chickens will be significantly advanced. In recent times, the inventory situation of egg production and circulation in the main production areas has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing from the beginning, middle, and end of this month. Before mid January, egg inventory first decreased and then slowly increased. With the accumulation of inventory in various links, short-term egg prices are constrained by this, and the upward momentum may be insufficient, and the upward space is still limited. In the short term, due to the saturation of demand support and high uncertainty, the near end inventory has increased, and eggs are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with limited upward momentum. In the medium term, with the effective support of the supply environment and the expectation of mid-term demand recovery, the prospects for the subsequent egg price market remain optimistic.

    In terms of short-term trading, eggs2015Adjustment of trend range, mainly focusing on form adjustment, overall trend range consolidation. In terms of operation, I suggest relying on the background4600-4350Short term high selling and low buying, rolling operations, gradually moving for profit protection.

   Thread Main Contract:

　　昨晚夜盘期螺止跌反弹，收高29Points or0.7%, Closing4194Optimistic macro expectations boost, black futures decline slows down yesterday, center of gravity shifts upward, futures spiral05rbYesterday before20The net position of the main force is net long108887Hand, the decrease in short positions held by the main force is much greater than that of long positions, resulting in a net increase in long positions19128Hand. Sure enough, last night's night market snail stopped falling and began to rebound slightly. according toMysteelIncomplete statistics,2021year1In the month, construction began across the country5748A major project with a total investment amount of2.89trillion1The number of projects starting in the month is relatively high12Month on month increase79.5%The investment amount of the project has increased month on month7.4%After consecutive days of decline, the bearish sentiment of the futures market has improved, and it is estimated that the market will continue to fluctuate and rebound today.

　 In terms of short-term trading, thread2105The contract, the author suggests that it can be explored in the follow-up4180When receiving support, choose low to short and draw high4235When the pressure level is under pressure, choose high and flat, and then turn your hand to enter short positions.

   Coke main contract:

    On Wednesday, the spot price of coke remained stable. Currently, the profit per ton of coke from coking is abundant, and most coke enterprises are operating at a high level. Despite the strong supply and demand of coke, the market sentiment is still optimistic. Many parts of Shanxi Jiao Enterprise's factory are out of stock, and automobile transportation is gradually returning to normal; However, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity in downstream steel plants continues to be at a high level, and the production reduction and maintenance plan is not obvious at the moment. The coke inventory in many steel plants is reasonably low, and the purchase of coke is still in a relatively active state. The price of coke remained stable before the holiday.

　　昨晚期焦窄幅震荡盘整，收于2491, compared to the daily closing price2492Equal in price, lower than the settlement price2.5Points or0.10%. Due to concerns in the current market about reduced steel production and off-season demand, coke futures have been declining for consecutive days, from a high point3000Falling to last night's closing price2491Falling more than500Point,05jThe contract has been discounted by more than500element/Ton. The downward trend of the period is starting to slow down, and there is only one left before the Spring Festival holiday5A trading day has passed, and the demand for resuming work after the New Year is optimistic. The main force will take advantage of the low price after this drop to inject multiple chips. It is estimated that the driving force for the downward trend of coke futures at this low level is insufficient, and there is a reason to stop the decline and stabilize.

　　短线交易方面，焦炭2105The author suggests that2490reach2550Sell high and buy low within the range, set a profit margin and hold at break even loss to see if there is a chance to gradually reach the midpoint.

   Soybean meal main contract:

     Soybean meal bottoming out, rebounding, and washing up the market50Multi point accumulation stage reporting3410Amid the market trend, the inventory of US soybeans has been reduced to1.4Billion bushels, previously the average market expectation was1.39Billion Pu; The yield of American soybeans continues to decrease0.5Pu Shi Er to50.2cattail/Acres, previously the average market expectation was50.5cattail/Acres; The pressing of American beans has been increased500Wanpu to22Billion Pu, US bean exports increase3000Wanpu to22.3Billion Pu. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced that based on the month on month data from fixed-point monitoring,11At the end of the month, the national inventory of breeding sows exceeded4100Over 10000 heads and pig inventory4Billion heads, pig production capacity has been restored to2017At the end of the year90% The above. The export of US beans to China continues to grow, with the proportion returning to normal levels. However, the sales progress is coming to an end and the profit margin from importing US beans from China is declining, which has slowed down the growth rate.

    In terms of short-term trading, soybean meal2105Contract, the author Wang Decheng suggests a rebound3460reach3500Divide the range in batches, set a profit margin and hold at break even loss, and see if there is a chance to gradually reach the midpoint.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。