MBG MARKETS 丨欧银购债有节制欧元创一周新高，但短线也不...

MBG导读：中长线来看美元仍为偏弱结构；短线上美元虽为偏弱结构，但下行空间或许相对有限。

Focus of foreign exchange marketIn terms of US dollars

周四，美元指数连续第三个交易日下跌，一方面是因美国公布的一系列经济数据强于预期，其中，初请失业金人数略好于预期，房屋开工数据乐观，大西洋沿岸中部地区制造业指数上升。另一方面市场对美国大规模经济刺激计划持续乐观，激发了市场对全球最大经济体复苏的希望。今晚22:45The United States will announce1monthMarkit服务业和制造业PMI初值，市场预期分别为53.6and56.6，均较前值有所下滑。因此，中长线来看美元仍为偏弱结构；短线上美元虽为偏弱结构，但下行空间或许相对有限。

In terms of Japanese yen

周四，美元兑日元小幅下跌，主要是因美元走软的影响。此外，周四上午日本央行发布利率决议，维持基础利率不变，对于美元兑日元影响相对较小。因此，预计短线美元兑日元仍为低位震荡结构。

In terms of European currencies

周四，欧元兑美元上涨0.52%，一方面是因美元的走软，另一方面周四晚间欧洲央行公布新一期政策决议，维持三大利率不变，并重申PEPP额度不一定要全额使用，也提振了欧元。今日下午，欧元区、德国、法国都将公布1Monthly manufacturing industryPMI值，目前市场预期这三项数据都将有所下滑，投资者需留意欧元的波动。整体来看，预计短线欧元仍有反弹动能，但上升空间或许仍然相对有限。

On the UK side

周四，英镑兑美元也创下两年半新高，一方面是因美元的走软，另一方面随着英国疫苗接种计划迅速展开，也令人寄望当地经济反弹将会相对较快。因此，短线预计英镑仍有反弹动。

In terms of commodity currency

周四，商品货币继续回升。一方面是因美元的走软；另一方面大宗商品价格的上涨以及全球股市的走强也提振了澳元领衔的商品货币。此外，昨日澳洲公布的12月就业人口来看，再次稳步增长，消费者支出和楼市形势看好，失业率降至6.6%，也都提振了澳元。因此，短线预计澳元、纽元仍有反弹动能，但上升空间仍然相对有限。

commodity market

goldaspect

周四，金价基本持平，一方面美元连续走低支撑了金价，但另一方面美债收益率再度上扬也令金价涨势受限。因此，短期预计金价仍为震荡略微偏强结构。

In terms of oil prices

周四，油价震荡收低，主要是因为全球冠状病毒疫情恶化加剧了市场对需求反弹前景的担忧，不过美元连续第三个交易日下跌，也提升了以美元计价大宗商品的吸引力。因此，预计短线油价仍为高位震荡结构。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周四，港股午后未能维持涨势，回吐超200点，尾盘探底回升，跌幅缩窄至30余点，收盘恒指跌0.12%。盘面上，稀土、烟草板块异军突起，锂电、地产、银行等板块造好；近日强势的科技股和医疗保健板块普遍回调。考虑到拜登正式以总统身份入主美国白宫，美股三大指数上日创出新高后，华尔街投资者转为观望，忧虑新政府的刺激方案或出现暗涌，美股周四表现反复，三大股指涨跌不一，预计短线对于港股而言也有一定压力。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.

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