Wang Decheng:5日螺纹铁矿焦炭鸡蛋期货基本面解读和行情分析

   做交易我一直在强调理性投资，何为理性投资？笔者一直认为理性投资的第一点就是要认识到投资理财的风险性，不管你是做goldforeign exchange交易还是futures交易，他都有很大的风险，所以你们一定不要投入太多资金去玩这东西，炒外汇或者炒期货没那么好赚钱，特别是你们在什么都不懂得情况下，就更不要投入太多钱去交易。我看见有些业务员的文章里今天晒单盈利几千美金，明天翻倍多少资金,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

   Thread Main Contract:

　  thread2105合约周一反弹小阳线报收4383(Last day's price)4388）The form belongs to stepping back4200到位反弹，短期调整结束，恢复多头思路。

    Shanghai Thread4470Steel billets3740Steel plant operating rate67.13%Social inventory36210000 tons, steel factory inventory224Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high.

　　操作建议：短期调整结束，盘中回落接多，止损不超过30Points.

　　

   Iron ore main contract:

　 铁矿2105合约周一增仓反弹中阳线报收1019.5(Last day's price)996），重新返回至1000大关上方，可恢复做多思路。

    铁矿石普氏指数158.9，现货青岛港PB粉1076，港口库存12410万吨，钢厂铁矿石库存可用天数27天。钢厂开工需求高位回落，受制于季节性和利润不佳，炉料库存充裕，钢厂矿石库存健康。外矿上半年供给受限，后期复产修复，供给2021仍有望转暖，港口库存当前低位已逐渐开启回升。矿石高低品级价差回落，钢厂红利出净高品代替焦炭优势渐弱，废钢对矿石亦有替代作用。外盘矿石回升，现货成交回暖有限，基差修复转负。全球终端需求进一步向上打压，美国粗钢产量锐减，后期铁矿石供需环境仍不乐观。人民币中长期仍存在贬值预期但短线升值，海运进口成本延续低位。

　　操作建议：铁矿回暖走强，重回1000大关之上，恢复做多思路逢低可接多。

　

    Coke main contract:

　  今日焦炭猛烈上涨100Multiple point reporting2929一带大阳线走势，现货：全国多地焦企提涨焦价100元，山东钢厂已接受提价。当前山西、河北等地月底加速去产能，焦炭强势大涨。日照、青岛港焦炭涨价、成交稳定：准一级焦2450Primary focus2550，含税价。汾渭平原受天气影响时发环保限产，焦企开工率微调，库存低、强势涨价；煤矿整治及蒙古通关问题焦煤涨价；钢厂高需求，小幅增加补库备货；钢厂和港口库存小幅降库。

　　焦炭2105合约，焦炭整体走强上攻拉升行情走势，日线周线整体走势将有望延续冲高行情走势，王德诚建议回调2905Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note2942and2960Stop profits and reduce positions in batches.

  　鸡蛋主力合约：

    今日鸡蛋小幅回落下挫160Report at around o'clock4127一带小阴线，养殖端补栏积极性有所提高，孵化场订单量缓慢增加，种蛋利用率提高，减轻供应端压力，同时气温的下降，鸡蛋可存储时间也可适当延长，也给行情提供底部支撑。再加上，近期猪肉价格明显上涨，亦给鸡蛋行情提供利好支撑。玉米、豆粕价格高位强势运行，养殖户在饲料成本逐步递增的情况下提价意愿强烈。随着下游食品厂、农贸市场春节前备货或将逐步启动，鸡蛋市场走货加快，本周库存继续下降。但是随着鸡蛋价格涨至高位，蛋商采购较为谨慎，终端消化需要时间，预计短线鸡蛋价格或将逐步趋稳。

　　操作建议：鸡蛋2105合约，鸡蛋整体趋势走强上攻行情，鸡蛋连续区间整理波动洗盘强势行情，笔者建议鸡蛋回调4102Support the upper level's batch entry and multi order strategy, with short-term attention4140and4160分批止盈减仓，趋势波段单带好利润保护持有。

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851，公众号：王德诚，联系手机微心同步：15851503763。