王德诚：周一现货黄金现货白银和TDgoldTD银行情分析

   

    做交易我一直在强调理性投资，何为理性投资？笔者一直认为理性投资的第一点就是要认识到投资理财的风险性，不管你是做goldforeign exchange交易还是futures交易，他都有很大的风险，所以你们一定不要投入太多资金去玩这东西，炒外汇或者炒期货没那么好赚钱，特别是你们在什么都不懂得情况下，就更不要投入太多钱去交易。我看见有些业务员的文章里今天晒单盈利几千美金，明天翻倍多少资金,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

    Fundamental analysis:

    get into2021年，新冠疫苗全面普及仍需要较长时间，而以美国为首的欧美主要国家，新增确诊人数依旧保持高速增长，特别是美国，在刚刚签署总规模2.3万亿美元的新冠纾困法案后，新任总统拜登有可能继续加码刺激计划，同时美联储将在较长时间里保持低利率环境，美元陷入长期下行的大趋势，以上总总，都说明在新的一年里，至少是今年上半年疫苗全面推广之前，黄金以及白银价格，较大概率继续维持高位运行。

　　展望下周，市场焦点可以主要关注这三个方面：

　　首先是经济刺激支票数额，目前众议院已经通过法案，支持特朗普发放2000dollar/人支票，此前支票数额为600美元，刺激措施严重拖累美元走势，而美元走软将为金银价格提供支撑，因此后续进展值得关注；

　　其次是新冠疫情，变异新冠病毒在英国加速传播，每日新增感染人数创历史新高，美国方面疫情扩散也没有丝毫放缓的迹象，疫情局势持续恶化，打压经济前景，这可能刺激各国央行进一步推出财政刺激方案，这为金银价格提供支撑。

　　前面两个方面主要影响金银长期趋势，而在短期走势上，最后需要关注的是非农数据，上周初请失业金人数虽然下降至一个月低点，但去年底美国新增病例大幅增加，12月非农数据可能会表现不佳，目前市场预计新增人数可能创造去年4月份以来新低，若公布结果符合预期，黄力晨认为短期内将利好金银价格。

　　Spot gold:

    最近两周受节假日因素影响，金价整体波动不大，走势维持震荡整理，上方1900美元关口形成主要压力区域。

　　下方支撑：关注日线5Daily moving average1883美元附近，日线布林带中轨1862Around the US dollar.

　　上方阻力：关注1900美元整数关口位置，去年9Month to11月金价主要压力区域1930Around the US dollar.

　　总体而言，近期现货黄金走势震荡偏强，整体承压于1900美元下方，多次向上试探突破未果，下周可以继续保持关注，若金价向上突破则空间将打开至1930美元附近，若暂时回落，关注日线布林带中轨位置向上看反弹。

　GoldTD：

　　相对现货黄金来说，黄金TD下跌时整体跌势更猛，这主要是因为人民币，相对美元来说处于长期升值趋势，人民币升值放大了国内金价的跌势，最近一个月黄金TD向上反弹，在11月金价跳水后反弹高点位置遇阻，目前金价滞涨积压，处于相对高位震荡整理。

　　下方支撑：关注4小时布林带下轨389.2元附近，日线布林带中轨和周线5Daily moving average387Near Yuan.

　　上方阻力：关注4Hour Bollinger Belt on Track393.5Near Yuan, the Daily Line Bolin Belt is on track395.9元附近，近一个月高点位置397.7Near Yuan.

　　总体而言，黄金TD近期反弹遇阻后，走势维持高位震荡整理，下周可以关注主要支撑与阻力位置，高沽低渣即可。

　Spot Silver:

    相对黄金来说，白银最近一个月的上涨趋势表现的更加明显，不过同金价一样，最近两周白银滞涨积压，银价在去年9月下旬跳水位置一线，形成了主要压力区域。

　　下方支撑：关注日线10Daily moving average25.95美元附近，日线布林带中轨25.1Around the US dollar.

　　上方阻力：关注近期白银承压一线，也是9月下旬银价跳水位置26.7美元附近，其次近三个月高位27.38Around the US dollar.

　　总体而言，近期现货白银走势震荡偏强，整体滞涨承压于26.7美元下方，价格需突破方能打开进一步上涨空间，下周银价可以继续关注这个位置，若向上突破上方空间将打开至三个月高点位置，若回落25美元整数位置则向上看反弹。

　　silverTD：

　   同现货白银一样，最近两周白银TD滞涨积压，银价在去年9月下旬跳水位置遇阻，目前走势高位震荡整理。

　　下方支撑：关注日线5Daily moving average5459Near Yuan,4小时布林带下轨5317元附近，日线布林带中轨5225Near Yuan.

　　上方阻力：关注4Hour Bollinger Belt on Track5599元附近，去年9In the second half of the month, silver prices plummeted to the front line5720Near Yuan.

　　总体而言，近期白银TD走势震荡偏强，银价向上反弹遇阻，但回落幅度有限，走势维持高位震荡，下周可以关注主要支撑与阻力位置，高沽低渣即可。

   Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For making goldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。