Wang Decheng:25日螺纹铁矿聚乙烯塑料豆粕期货行情分析

           Wang Decheng:25日螺纹铁矿聚乙烯塑料豆粕futuresquotations analysis

    今晚是平安夜，祝各位平安夜圣诞节快乐健康，投资顺利

     螺纹：

　　1.技术面：螺纹2105合约周四窄幅震荡小线报收4291(Last day's price)4283），持续关注下方支撑表现，回落此处乏力多单仍可继续布局。

　　2.基本面：上海螺纹4380Steel billets3960Steel plant operating rate66.85%Social inventory37210000 tons, steel factory inventory240Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high.

　　3.操作建议：螺纹连续回落之后，昨日小幅反弹，今日小幅收阳，仍需持续关注下方支撑表现，如持续有效可继续布局多单。

　　

   铁矿：

　　1.技术面：铁矿2105合约周四反弹小阳线报收1036(Last day's price)1026.5），持续震荡走高，不过仍需密切关注下方支撑表现，择机布局多单。

　　2.基本面：铁矿石普氏指数164.15，现货青岛港PB粉1047，港口库存12404.45万吨，钢厂铁矿石库存可用天数26天。钢厂开工需求高位回落，受制于季节性和利润不佳，炉料库存充裕，钢厂矿石库存健康。外矿上半年供给受限，后期复产修复，供给2021仍有望转暖，港口库存当前低位已逐渐开启回升。矿石高低品级价差回落，钢厂红利出净高品代替焦炭优势渐弱，废钢对矿石亦有替代作用。外盘矿石回升，现货成交回暖有限，基差修复转负。全球终端需求进一步向上打压，美国粗钢产量锐减，后期铁矿石供需环境仍不乐观。人民币中长期仍存在贬值预期但短线升值，海运进口成本延续低位。

　　3.操作建议：铁矿经过昨日下探反弹之后，今日再度收高，不过目前行情震荡，仍需密切关注下方支撑表现，如继续有效可择机布局多单。

  聚乙烯塑料：

　　1.技术面：塑料2105合约周四反弹回升中阳线报收7900(Last day's price)7765），目前止跌反弹迹象颇为明显，夜间及明日可继续关注逢低做多机会。

　　2.基本面：现货市场价格方面，华北地区LLDPEPrice in7970-8100element/Tons, 华东地区价格在8200element/吨，华南地区价格在8200-8250element/吨。因投资者在乐观预计疫苗将刺激石油需求的同时，美国国会加紧谈判抗疫纾困协议，也振奋了市场情绪。不过美国石油钻井数继续增加和美元至跌，部分抑制涨幅。12month19日亚洲乙烯价格持平，CFR东北亚收价990dollar/ton;Outer discLLDPE美金价格下跌，CFR远东收价999dollar/吨。上游库存回落，港口库存有所回落，库存压力暂时不大。需求保持平稳，后市刚需为主。前期检修装置复产，以及新产能即将投放，供应压力渐增。随着供增需减，累库预期强烈，价格上方承压。

　　3.操作建议：塑料在昨日下探回升之后，今日强势反弹冲高，调整基本到位，明日逢低多单可重点关注。

　

   　豆粕：

　　1.技术面：豆粕2105合约周四高位回落中线报收3307(Last day's price)3321），形态属于高位横盘调整，下方平台支撑持续有效，后市继续看多。

　　2.基本面：沿海豆粕价格3040-3180element/Ton20-50element/吨。中长期看，南美减产与收割推迟忧虑仍存，美豆出口前景较好。国内方面，12月到港依旧充裕，豆粕库存压力消化尚需时日。豆粕低位仍吸引一些成交，但预计难以放量。豆油库存较为稳定，买家追高意愿不强，高位成交不多，部分相对低位成交稍有增加。

　　3.操作建议：上周提示逢低试多的仓位注意设保护，新仓依托下方支撑做多。

    Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。