Urbanization during the 14th Five Year Plan period, ushering in the era of small towns in China

Shen Xiaojie: It has become a consensus to reasonably control the population density and scale of large cities and accelerate the development of small towns to improve new urbanization. In the 14th Five Year Plan for China's urbanization development, small towns will undoubtedly shoulder the historical responsibility.

Urbanization during the 14th Five Year Plan period

China's 14th Five Year Plan and2035In order to basically achieve modernization in, there is an unavoidable "gap" - the widening urban-rural gap and the increasing polarization of the urban-rural population. Reasonably controlling the population density and scale of large cities to accelerate the development of small towns and improve new urbanization has become a consensus among decision-makers and academia.

Operations Research and Planning China's 14th Five Year Plan and Arrival2035In order to basically achieve modernization in, there is an unavoidable "gap", which is the widening urban-rural gap and the increasing polarization of the urban-rural population step by step. As cities become more "Europeanized", the "Africanization" of rural areas is also more prominent. At the same time, the polarization of population distribution between urban and rural areas in China is becoming more prominent.

The double difference in land use for urban and rural population construction is intensifying, making it difficult to sustain the urbanization of "major cities"

In the data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, it can be found that2000The proportion of urban and rural population distribution in China in36.22%than63.78%Here we go2010The distribution ratio of urban and rural populations is close to half each year（49.95%than50.05%）Here we go2019In, the proportion of urban and rural population distribution in China was reversed, with cities being60.6%In rural areas39.4%。20During the year, the urban and rural populations in China were measured by their annual average1.22%The speed increases or decreases; from2000Year to2019In, the permanent population of urban areas in China increased by4.59One billion people have increased to8.48One hundred million people, while the permanent population in rural areas is from8.08One billion people have decreased to5.52One billion people. On the one hand, this is the achievement of urbanization development, and on the other hand, it has also led to an increasing polarization in the population and spatial distribution of urban and rural areas in China.

With the largest urban-rural migration in history, the difference in per capita land use between urban and rural areas is also increasing. According to research data, it occupies a national proportion in the permanent population40%The rural population occupies and uses up to20Ten thousand square kilometers, accounting for60%A large number of urban permanent residents occupy and use only a small amount of urban construction land10Ten thousand square kilometers, only half of that in rural areas. The ratio of per capita construction land area between urban and rural areas is as high as1：3.7 。 The rigid contradiction in urban land demand brought about by the urbanization of hundreds of millions of people is becoming increasingly prominent, and the larger the city, the higher the population agglomeration degree brought about by urbanization. The contradiction in land supply and demand, as well as the corresponding real estate and housing problems, are becoming more prominent, and the trend of development is even more unsettling.

According to statistics from Evergrande Research Institute2000-2019this20During the year, the proportion of population in first and second tier cities in China was determined by3.7%、17.3%Increase to5.3%、20.6%。 From a trend perspective, the larger the city, the higher the concentration of population. stay2001-2010Year2011-2015Year and2016-2019During these three stages of the year, the average annual growth rate of the population in China's first and second tier cities was3.42%and1.81%，1.49%and1.00%，1.33%and0.69%Are far higher than the national average population growth rate during the same period0.57%、0.50%、0.46%。 The average annual growth rate of the population in third and fourth tier cities is slightly lower and significantly lower than the national average growth rate (see the figure below).

Population growth rate

It is even more alarming to2030New additions in China in2Among the over 100 million urban population, approximately60%It will be distributed in seven major urban agglomerations, including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing Tianjin Hebei. This means that in the future, the problem of population congestion in major cities in China will become more prominent.

The actual population density of major cities in China far exceeds that of Tokyo and New York, and moderate easing is urgent

Compared with international mega cities, to what extent is the population congestion problem in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in China? A research report from the Development Research Center of the State Council can provide more insights. Based on their comparison between Beijing, Shanghai, and Tokyo, New York0-10kmWithin the radius of the central urban area, the density of permanent residents in Beijing and Shanghai is2.07ten thousand people/km2and2.56ten thousand people/km2Each square kilometer is higher than Tokyo7421and1.2410000 people, higher than New York7539and1.25Ten thousand people. stay0-5kmIn the core area, the density of permanent residents in Shanghai is as high as3.67ten thousand people/km2Compared to New York（2.66ten thousand people/km2）Higher10041people/km2； Beijing（2.02ten thousand people/km2）Although lower than New York, still close to Tokyo（1.08ten thousand people/km2）(See Zhuo Xian and Chen Olympic's article "From Urbanization to metropolitan area")

This is also proved by a report of the metropolitan area think tank, a well-known institution specializing in metropolitan area research in China. They selected Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tokyo, and New York as representative metropolises both domestically and internationally for comparative analysis, The data is as follows:

Population density

It is not difficult to see from the table that whether it is in the0-10kmIn the central urban area, or in the10-20kmIn the main urban areas, the population density of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is mostly higher than or equal to that of Tokyo and New York (only Beijing has10-20Kilometer exception). Especially in the central urban area, not only is the population density of Shanghai and Shenzhen more than twice that of Tokyo and New York, but also Beijing, where there are numerous government buildings and schools, is nearly one-third and two-thirds higher, respectively.

Some people may think that,20-50The population density of Beijing and Shanghai within a kilometer range is smaller than that of Tokyo, indicating that Beijing and Shanghai can accommodate a larger population. In fact, China's major cities, which have the mission of "promoting rural development through cities," are themselves a product of urban-rural integration. Unlike Tokyo and New York, cities are mainly urban areas, which is why the area of Beijing and Shanghai is several times or even tens of times larger than that of Tokyo and New York City (such as urban areas)1.6Beijing, with an area of over 10000 square kilometers, has only789Square kilometers of New York City20.8Times). In addition, the area2155The average radius of Tokyo in square kilometers is only26More than a kilometer, it is no longer Tokyo but other small towns beyond the range. The main urban areas of major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have a radius of approximately20Multiple kilometers (region1250More than square kilometers. It should be pointed out that the vast majority of the population flowing to large cities in China are concentrated in the main urban areas, and very few people settle down in suburban counties or rural areas of large cities. In addition, the proportion of land occupied by government agencies, courtyards, and military schools in the main urban areas of some major cities in China is much larger than that of foreign countries. These characteristics determine the actual population congestion in major cities in China, which is even more "unbearable" than the data. This is also destined for the development of urbanization in China, and we can no longer continue to "spread the big cake" and follow the path of "a big country and a big city".

The seriousness of the problem lies in the fact that high population density is not a unique "patent" of China's first tier big cities, and this situation is also quite common in many large and medium-sized cities. Taking Nanjing as an example, as early as2010In, the average permanent population density in the old urban area of Nanjing was as high as3.24Ten thousand people, far higher than densely populated Beijing and Tokyo in Japan. Among them, there are9The permanent population density of each street exceeds4Ten thousand people, and2More than streets510000 people.

Hollow and urbanization rate70%Turning point, small cities and towns need to turn danger into opportunity

In stark contrast to the "overload" of large cities, small cities, towns, and villages in China are often hollowed out, marginalized, and impoverished, which is no longer news. The author described to what extent rural hollowing out has reached in an article two years ago. according to2012According to a report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in, only "the comprehensive renovation potential of the national hollow villages can reach1.14One hundred million acres With the decrease of rural permanent population in the past five years5300About ten thousand people. According to the per capita residential land in rural China announced by the Ministry of Land and Resources317Calculating by square meters, the land that may be vacant will increase again2523Ten thousand acres. The land that can be comprehensively renovated in rural areas nationwide is at least as high as1.4One hundred million acres. Only the land area that can be "comprehensively improved"（9.33Ten thousand square kilometers is equivalent to the existing construction land in Chinese cities and towns. The author has conducted research in rural areas in the past two years and found that its trend has become increasingly severe, with problems and contradictions becoming more prominent.

Some people believe that hollowing out is beneficial for scale management, as fewer rural farmers make both farmers and rural areas prosperous. But the fact did not develop in the expected direction. With the hollowing out and marginalization, many small cities, towns, and villages have become increasingly impoverished and impoverished, and it is time to solve them.

As is well known, any issue related to rural development and agriculture, whether it is rural revitalization or urban-rural integration, if the vast majority of rural areas do not have basic population support and sufficient popularity gathering, in the state of "hollowing out and marginalization", it will be empty talk for rural areas to do anything well.

It should be pointed out that currently, some economically developed provinces and cities in China, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, have urbanization rates that have already or have just exceeded70%。 However, some developed countries internationally consider the construction of small towns as a time point to increase urbanization rates, usually when the urbanization rate reaches70%At the time of implementation, this is also the time when urban diseases and rural hollowing out are concentrated, and a counter urbanization operation is needed to correct it, in order to optimize the urban and rural population and spatial layout.

Urbanization, which leads to rusting as a major city, is still the best livable option in international practice

The "urban disease" caused by overcrowding in large cities and enormous environmental and ecological pressures, coupled with the increasing decline of small towns and rural areas due to hollowing out, has led more and more people to rethink the development path of urbanization in China. So, how can the spatial layout and population distribution of urban and rural areas be optimized and adapted? Naturally, people are focusing more on small cities and towns.

It should be pointed out here that urbanization, which is highly concentrated in large cities, is generally in the stage of development that prioritizes efficiency. At the stage of modernization of the "post moderately prosperous" era, with people's pursuit of comfort in life and work, the circle of activities is gradually spreading from big cities to the surrounding areas. The anti urbanization of the middle class in developed countries has also emerged from this. According to research data, the global population exceeds1000Wan Di Qian29In a super large supermarket,22An underdeveloped country from Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Some people believe that increasing the urbanization rate by guiding the urban population and new citizens to small cities and towns is an unrealistic fantasy. The development of China's economy and industries is more concentrated in big cities, and should be considered as a "big city". The aforementioned report of the Development Research Center of the State Council also points out that there are32Megacities and mega cities, carrying a total of18.6%, generating41.7%The total economic output. But the problem is that such a high degree of agglomeration also makes us pay a high price for urban diseases and rural hollowing out. If this trend is allowed to continue, not only will the "persistent diseases" in the development of these two major urban and rural areas make the contradictions more prominent and the problems worse, but the "rust" phenomenon that seriously exists in the US region and urban and rural spaces today may also spread on a large scale in China.

The real threat and development trend of "rust" in some parts of China has not only become a regional problem in some cities in the northeast and north, but more seriously, it has spread and is currently spreading in small towns and rural areas. Only through timely and comprehensive planning and integration, and guiding more population and industries to small cities and towns, can China's urban-rural space develop more scientifically and evenly, and the trend of "rust" in certain parts of China may come to an abrupt end.

In fact, the balanced development of population and industrial layout in small cities and towns is a successful path to high-quality urbanization development at a reasonable price. From international practice, the population size of the most livable cities in the world rarely exceeds500More than ten thousand people. According to The Economist in the UK2018In the ranking of livable cities worldwide in, the population of each of the best livable cities is Vienna18910000 people, Melbourne500Ten thousand people, Osaka267Ten thousand people, Calgary156Ten thousand people, Sydney50310000 people, Vancouver63Ten thousand people, Copenhagen67.6Ten thousand people, Adelaide135Ten thousand people. Only Toronto（600Ten thousand people) and Tokyo (population just over1400Two cities500More than ten thousand people.

There is a cognitive misconception in our traditional urbanization policy design, which is to focus too much on increasing urbanization rates in cities with high population concentration, especially in large and medium-sized cities. The experience of developed countries internationally indicates that high urbanization rates are not equivalent to concentrating the population in large cities. Even on the contrary, many developed countries often experience a process of reverse urbanization after reaching a certain level of urbanization rate. The more economically developed and affluent the middle class, which accounts for the majority of the population, the more they prefer to live in small towns on the outskirts of cities or even farther away from big cities.

The high urbanization rate, mainly in small towns and cities, is quite common in developed countries in Europe and America. For example, the United States has63%About half of the population resides in 5 Small towns with less than ten thousand people, Germany80%The population resides in10A small town with a population of less than 10000 people (see figure below: urban and population distribution statistics in the United States and Germany).

Population distribution map

The population living in small towns and rural areas undoubtedly provides us with a valuable and worthy reference for implementing urban-rural integration and new urbanization. The distribution of urban and rural populations, on the one hand, rarely leads to hollowing out of rural areas, on the other hand, it also makes cities less prone to urban diseases, and there is almost no phenomenon of population polarization between urban and rural areas in China.

It is not difficult to see from this that whether it is the modernization requirements and laws of small towns and rural development, or the livable development requirements of large cities themselves, China should optimize the planning and construction of urban and rural land space, while moderately controlling the population size of large cities, and focus on modernization with small towns and rural areas as the main focus. Make the living space of urban and rural populations pay more attention to livability while emphasizing efficiency.

Will small urbanization and optimizing the size of cities affect their "strength" and prioritization?

Some people may also have concerns of one kind or another: moving more people to small cities and towns, and loosening the population and industries of large cities will inevitably affect their clustering and prioritization. Will this affect the development of big cities? For some big city leaders and advocates, the efficiency and scale brought by high concentration and "big cake sharing" are not only their achievements, but also an important part of supporting their "development concept". Even some "inspection teams" consider the primacy of major cities such as provincial capitals as an important aspect of examining whether local "parents" are considered important. Is it difficult for small and medium-sized cities to make significant progress in industrial and economic development due to the reduction of urban scale? Not really.

The author has specifically visited Europe to investigate and understand the local urban-rural integration. During a survey in Stuttgart, Germany, it was found that although it is the sixth largest city in Germany, its total population is only57Ten thousand. According to Chinese standards, it can only be classified as a "county town". But just like this small town, it has nurtured and gathered some of the world's most famous car brands. Not only were heavyweight car brands like Mercedes Benz, Porsche, and Maybach born here, but the Beetle, once the world's best-selling Volkswagen, was also born here. Stuttgart is therefore also known as the "cradle of automobiles". In Stuttgart, the world's largest luxury sedan production base - the Mercedes Benz Sindfingen sedan production base - every day from this factory650Mercedes BenzCClass sedan1200VehicleEClass sedan and300Multiple vehiclesSClass sedan. In addition, world-renowned corporate headquarters such as Bosch have also settled in Stuttgart. In addition, there are also the second largest stock exchange and the largest credit institution in Germany. In addition to these global multinational corporations and financial giants, Stuttgart also has1500Small and medium-sized enterprises and the most intensive research institution in Germany, all around Germany11%All scientific research achievements come from here.

The successful experience of Stuttgart has overturned the mindset of Chinese people that 'big cities have great achievements'. It fully demonstrates that the competitiveness and development of a city cannot be equated with its size and scale. On the contrary, moderate easing of overcrowded large cities can bring more optimized space for their own development.

In my research in Germany, I also noticed a phenomenon worth learning from, where the urbanization rate is as high as90%The largest economic country in Europe, with a population of only two to three million more than Jiangsu and an economic development ranking among the top in the world, and the total population of the three largest cities (Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg) is also700About ten thousand, not even as big as a city in Nanjing. In Germany, only20%People living in a population exceeding10Ten thousand "big cities", with the rest living in small towns, including the total population2More than 40% of small towns and cities are located below 10000 yuan. The biggest characteristic of Germany's urbanization model is "decentralization".

Urbanization centered around small towns, consensus among top decision-makers and grassroots people

Since the increase in urbanization rate is an indispensable foundation for China's modernization, and since China's metropolises are no longer suitable for over carrying more population, China's urbanization path must find a new path. Making full use of the time distance dividend brought by high-speed rail and the characteristics of the era of remote office in the network society, and optimizing the population spatial layout and industrial layout of large cities, small cities and towns, so that more "urbanization rate" of the incremental population flows to small cities and towns, will become the only choice to both improve the urbanization rate and resolve urban diseases and rural hollowness. At the same time, create conditions for more farmers to undergo local urbanization.

The relocation of citizens from big cities to small towns and townships not only does not affect but also optimizes the development of big cities. Small urbanization can also make economic and social development "bigger and stronger". The following question is whether in the current social environment, without relying on administrative and policy pressure, only driven by the market and interests, big city residents and new citizens can voluntarily engage in "new ups and downs". The answer is also affirmative.

author2018year3Published onFTIn articles such as "The Middle Class and Ten Trillion Class Industries: Accelerators for Rural Revitalization" and "How to Solve the Chinese Style Elderly Care Dilemma" on the Chinese website, the development momentum, significant economic benefits, and the huge scale that can drive hundreds of millions of people to "go to the mountains and rural areas" have been reviewed for many urban retired people to choose to join a group for elderly care in the Peach Garden like countryside. At present, such "new trends" and the health industry have become the greatest potential for the economic and social development of many counties and townships. This year6In two articles on the analysis of the metropolitan area published in August, the author deduced from the experience of the metropolitan area that if the door of metropolitan area integration was fully opened, there would be210More than million retired elderly people will go to metropolitan area around Shanghai to raise foreigners in other places, which will also greatly attract those who can not afford to buy houses in Shanghai, mainly non Shanghai registered residence440More than ten thousand new citizens bought houses and settled down in small cities in the metropolitan area where the house price was only one quarter to one third of that of Shanghai. With these two things alone, about a quarter of the population of Shanghai alone can be evacuated to small cities and towns in the metropolitan area. government38The integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the metropolitan area, which has been launched in, enables citizens to "break the cocoon overnight" driven by the market and interests. In fact, this trend has already formed a "scale effect" in places such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. The main issue now is not whether big city residents are willing to go to small towns and villages, but when the government can open the door to allow citizens to go to the countryside.

It is comforting that not only do more and more experts and scholars no longer agree on using the expansion of big cities to improve urbanization rates, but the top decision-making level has also clarified the direction.

在中央十四五规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议中，不仅要求“健全区域协调发展体制机制，完善新型城镇化战略，构建高质量发展的国土空间布局和支撑体系”，更把“统筹城市规划、建设、管理，合理确定城市规模、人口密度、空间结构，促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展”作为推进新型城镇化的主要内容。习近平主席不久前更是在中共中央机关刊《求是》杂志发文，明确提出城市单体规模不能无限扩张。目前中国超大城市和特大城市人口密度总体偏高。长期来看，全国城市都要根据实际合理控制人口密度，大城市人口平均密度要有控制标准。要建设一批产城融合、职住平衡、生态宜居、交通便利的郊区新城，推动多中心、郊区化发展，逐步解决中心城区人口和功能过密问题（见“求是“杂志2020year21期，习近平“国家中长期经济社会发展战略若干重大问题”）。

合理控制大城市人口的密度和规模、以加快小城镇发展来提高新型城镇化，已经成了决策者和学界更多人的共识。“十四五”中国城镇化发展，小城镇必将担当起历史的重任。

（作者系南京大学长江产经研究院特聘研究员。本文仅代表作者观点。）