MBG Quick News | Severe Epidemic Risk Sentiment Decline, Safe haven Currency Boosted

MBGIntroduction: On Tuesday, commodity currencies were generally weak, especially the Australian dollar. This is mainly due to the sudden change of COVID-19 in the UK, the intensification of the epidemic in Europe, and the high level of bulk commodities. The market is worried about the future economic prospects. In addition, the decline in global stock markets has also led to a decrease in risk appetite. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a demand for consolidation in short-term commodity currencies.

Focus of foreign exchange marketIn terms of US dollars

On Tuesday, the overall trend of the dollar index was strong, mainly because the market was worried about the implementation of blockade and travel restrictions due to the mutation of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom, which weakened people's optimism about the passage of the stimulus bill. tonight21:30The United States will announce11Monthly CorePCEThe annual rate of the price index is expected to be recorded by the market1.5%, previous value is1.4%. Meanwhile, the United States will also be announced11The monthly rate of durable goods orders is expected to decline in the market. Overall, with the benefits of vaccines and the promotion of stimulus plans, the median line continues to maintain a weak structure in the US dollar index; But technically, there may still be a rebound.

In terms of Japanese yen

On Tuesday, the US dollar rose against the Japanese yen0.32%Mainly due to the risk bearish sentiment in Europe driving safe haven funds to flow towards the US dollar, leading to a strengthening of the US index and boosting the US dollar/Day. However, considering the upcoming Christmas holiday, more funds may choose to allocate to the Asia Pacific region, so it is expected that the Japanese yen exchange rate will continue to remain strong. Therefore, it is expected that the upward potential of the US dollar against the Japanese yen is still limited.

In terms of European currencies

On Tuesday, the euro fell against the US dollar0.66%Mainly due to the rise of the US dollar and investors still have concerns about Brexit negotiations. At present, the intensification of the epidemic in Europe will continue to put pressure on the euro. Therefore, there is still a need for consolidation to maintain the euro in the short term.

On the UK side

On Tuesday, the pound continued to decline, mainly due to the continued fermentation of the impact of the new strain of COVID-19 in the UK, and the rapid rise of risk aversion in the market put pressure on the pound. However, there are reports that the European Union is willing to accept a reduction in fishing in British waters25%The proposal of value suggests that the short-term decline of the pound is expected to ease.

In terms of commodity currency

On Tuesday, the overall commodity currency was weak, especially the Australian dollar. This is mainly due to the sudden change of COVID-19 in the UK, the intensification of the epidemic in Europe, and the high level of bulk commodities. The market is worried about the future economic prospects. In addition, the decline in global stock markets has also led to a decrease in risk appetite. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a demand for consolidation in short-term commodity currencies.

commodity market

goldaspect

On Tuesday, gold prices continued to decline, mainly due to investors reducing their exposure to high-risk currencies such as the pound, causing the US dollar to soar significantly, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. In addition, the US Congress has passed nearly9000The COVID-19 bailout bill of US $billion, and some profit taking also hit market sentiment. Therefore, in the short term, gold prices will continue to maintain a consolidation structure.

In terms of oil prices

On Tuesday, the oil price fell to the lowest level in a week, mainly because the market expected that the new coronavirus mutation and related travel restrictions would weaken the already stressed global fuel demand; In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has also reduced the attractiveness of oil priced in US dollars. tonight23:30The United States will announce to12month18Day and WeekEIAcrude oilInventory data, market expectations will decrease325Ten thousand barrels. Announced in the early morningAPIUnexpected increase in crude oil inventories, investors should be cautiousEIAInventory has also increased, which will exacerbate the downward pressure on oil prices.

stock market indexprospect

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, on Tuesday, the stock market briefly fell more than300Point, drop to26000Click below, create11month13Recently, it has stabilized after reaching a new low. The Hang Seng Index closed down throughout the day0.71%Report26119.25Point. On the market, water and virtual reality stocks performed well, while consumer electronics and fuel cell sectors performed weakly. Considering the failure of the US stock market to boost the approval of a new round of relief plans by Congress, the three major stock indexes have fluctuated, and it is expected that there will also be some pressure on the Hong Kong stock market in the short term.

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/US bears can redeem a portion of their profits.

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