Wang Decheng:18日白银原油螺纹钢豆粕甲醇期货行情分析

         Wang Decheng:18Japanese silvercrude oil螺纹钢豆粕甲醇futuresquotations analysis

   白银：强势拉升还有空间

　　行情分析：今日白银剧烈波动190Report at around o'clock5375小阳线走势，海外新冠病例及美国病亡人数大幅增加，世卫组织数据显示全球新冠确诊病例达7158Ten thousand. U.S.A11月份工业产值增长0.4%, estimated to be0.3%. beautiful11月制造业产出增长0.8%，为连续第七个月增长。美国众议院议长寻求敲定大规模政府支出议案。英国首相约翰逊发言人首相向内阁重申，没有脱欧贸易协议是最有可能的结果。美国就土耳其购买俄制S -400防空系统对土实施制裁。

　操作建议：白银2102合约，白银调整蓄势区间剧烈波动上涨行情走势，有望继续宽幅整理反洗行情为主，王德诚建议白银回调5315-5340Interval batch entry and multiple order strategy, short-term attention5388and5410Stop profits and reduce positions, pay attention to profit protection and holding in the medium and long term, make independent decisions for investors in actual operations, and bear risks independently. Market recommendations are for reference only.

   原油：强势上攻多单验证

　　行情分析：今日原油强势拉升10Multiple point reporting302大阳线走势，美国开始进行疫苗接种。美国死于新冠肺炎的人数已经突破30万人。与此同时，英国和加拿大也开始进行疫苗接种。纽约Again资本公司的合伙人约翰·基尔达夫表示,原油投资者聚焦于疫情后的前景，疫情最快可能在明年夏季结束。在中国，官方数据显示11月份中国原油加工量达到5835万吨，比上年同期提高3.2%。日加工量为142010000 barrels/日，达到创纪录水平。1to11月份中国原油加工量达到6.1441亿吨，相当于133910000 barrels/日，同比提高3.1%。芝加哥普莱斯期货集团资深分析师菲尔·弗林表示，(中国数据)提振了投资者对燃料需求增长的信心。中国是今年石油需求全面恢复的罕见国家之一。弗林说，人们会认为石油需求激增的时刻即将来临。

　　　操作建议：原油2101合约，原油区间整理振荡蓄势发力启动大涨行情走势，王德诚建议回调290-298Interval batch entry and multiple order strategy, short-term attention306and310The main focus is on controlling profits in batches, while protecting and holding profits in the medium to long term. The essence and essence of futures market trading must be understood and understood. Investors should make independent decisions and bear their own risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

　螺纹钢：强势上涨多单验证

　　行情分析：今日螺纹钢发力上涨60Multiple point reporting4174小阳线形态，钢材就逐步出现淡季特征，并会出现“北材南下”的贸易流。今年进入11After the middle of the month, the terminal demand for threaded steel began to weaken seasonally, and high-frequency demand indicators all fell from high levels. The latest apparent demand for thread steel is390.6410000 tons, compared to11Mid month high point drop16%Last week's month on month (MoM) growth was mainly due to strong prices stimulating a rebound in speculative demand, and sustainability was not strong. At the same time, the operating rate and shipment rate of cement mills nationwide have decreased respectively10.73Percentage points and12.36The decline has significantly expanded in the past two weeks, with an absolute value lower than the same period last year. Overall, the demand for building materials and steel will still weaken seasonally. The market has optimistic expectations for the peak demand for threaded steel in the first half of next year based on the resilience of real estate and good infrastructure, and in the weak reality of threaded steel2105The contract rose strongly. However, we believe that optimistic expectations of demand may be falsified. Under the constraints of the "three red lines", the financing environment for real estate enterprises is tightening, and new construction and land purchases will be suppressed. Moreover, high-frequency data has been verified,11month100The year-on-year decrease in land transaction area in major cities37.6%The demand for strength and toughness of real estate steel needs to be tracked.

　　　操作建议：螺纹钢2105Contract, rebar volume backwash upward trend, daily level is expected to rebound and increase market trend, Wang Decheng suggests rebar callback4136-4158Interval batch entry and multi order strategy, short-term attention4186and4205Batch stop profit protection, with medium to long term holdings mainly focused on expanding profits. Investors make independent decisions in actual operations, independently bear risks and bear their own profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only. We do not have any related responsibility for your trading profits or losses based on our judgment of the futures market.

　豆粕：盘踞调整短线为主

　　行情分析：今日豆粕小区间整理回落波动30Report at around o'clock3150小阴线一带，国外方面，美国大豆销售放缓，国内压榨较好，价格承压波动；巴西产区降水情况不一，气温略低于平均值；阿根廷大豆产量预期有所下降，同时压榨也有所降低。国内方面，12Continue to maintain monthly soybean shipments to Hong Kong900A level of over ten thousand tons; The profit from spot soybean squeezing is good, and the amount of soybean squeezing has rebounded; The decrease in soybean meal inventory will also slow down; The demand for live pigs decreased month on month; The inventory of poultry has declined; The demand for freshwater fish farming is weak.

　　　操作建议：豆粕2105The current daily level of soybean meal is gradually under pressure, and the overall trend is expected to continue to decline. Wang Decheng suggests that soybean meal rise3162-3182Interval batch entry empty order operation concept, short-term strategy3138and3120Stop profits and reduce positions separately, investors make independent decisions in actual operations, independently bear risks and bear their own profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

　

　　甲醇：整理蓄势还将上行

　 行情分析：今日甲醇高位整理蓄势40Multiple point reporting2504小阳线形态，西北当地烯烃采购增量，内地市场多大幅推涨后延续停售行情，短期亦维持走强思路。另外，国内甲醇市场运费继续走高，多地继续走高10-50element/吨，目前内蒙北线至鲁北运费参考在240-300element/吨，南线至鲁北参考270-320element/吨。限气逻辑的预期增强后期甲醇走高的主要驱动。一方面是国内限气，中海化学计划12月下旬检修，而西南重量级装置川维、卡贝乐则大概率在明年1-2月份停车。国内西南地区与国外伊朗限气的逻辑仍未完全兑现，另一方面是国外伊朗的装置检修预期。目前，市场认为伊朗冬季限气预期仍存，参照去年情况大概率发生1月份，因此不排除届时有更多装置停产可能。

　　操作建议：甲醇2105合约，目前甲醇蓄势再度放量上攻破位整理形态，甲醇还将延续偏强走势为主，王德诚建议甲醇回调2465-2486区间分批进场多单策略为主，短线注意2516and2534Batch stop profit is sufficient, and long-term profit protection holds a follow-up strategy. The new round of major market opportunities for methanol is gradually approaching, and investors are making independent decisions in actual operations, independently assuming risks, profits and losses. Market recommendations are for reference only.

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdc4561。