Li Lianying:12.15黄金今日还会涨吗？原油还会跌吗？最新行情...

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=====internationalgoldMessage surface analysis=====

Monday（12month14日）美市盘中，金融市场波动加剧，美元指数自低位大幅回升，至平盘略下方；现货黄金在暴拉20美元之后迅速跳水，现交投于1830dollar/盎司关口下方；美股上涨，其中道琼斯指数上涨逾200点，追踪小型股的罗素2000Index rise1.6%，创历史新高。一位知情人士说，一项9080亿美元的跨党派新冠肺炎救助计划将分为两部分以获得批准。该计划最早可能于周一提交美国国会。周一，美国大选的选举人团在各自的州进行投票，最终确定谁将当选美国下任总统。特朗普上周日在接受采访时暗示，即使选举人团将于周一在大多数州议会进行投票，他仍将继续质疑和挑战2020年总统大选的结果。

　　日内市场焦点保持在英国脱欧、疫苗和美国刺激法案的消息。关于后者，美国两党组织将在今天公布一项刺激法案，希望这将打破国会的僵局。股票市场显然欢迎这一前景，标准普尔500indexfutures目前上涨了30点，美元则持续下挫，黄金虽然避险需求因此承压，最低一度跌破1820美元关口，但因美元走低黄金在欧市盘尾得以反弹，英国脱欧方面，周日英国和欧盟再次延迟退欧谈判的最终期限，但没有明确具体日期。有英国官员透露谈判可能将持续至圣诞。虽然预期中的经贸协议迟迟未定，双方也都表示分歧巨大，但投资者仍倾向于相信最终可以达成协议。

　　=====国际黄金技术面分析=====

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金今日的行情是全天属于阴跌的模式，自早间1840上方开盘后，黄金一路走空，一度到达1818点位，不过欧盘下破低点后美盘并没有破底，而是反弹修正，目前最高触及1838附近，从日内的方向肯定是走弱和趋势上也偏空的形态，毕竟行情已经破位，4小时日线周线全部偏空，月线也是空头格局，所以中线来看，必然是会出新低了，所以操作上只要见高，到了关键压力位就可以空。

Technically speaking,1823对黄金来说是非常重要的位置，此位置的下破令多头情绪得以抑制，且4小时略有形成头肩顶右肩下跌的行为，若此情绪进行释放，那么黄金至少将抵达1807as well as1790才能令其得到支撑进行反转，因此晚间黄金大概率仍将再次探底，对于尾盘操作黄金仍旧看空，综合来看，后市晚间黄金操作思路上李联赢建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1838-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1813-1818Frontline support.

　　=====期货美原消息面解析=====

　　crude oil消息面解析：根据油轮公司各自的报告，沙特吉达港发生爆炸，至少一艘船只受到冲击。根据船东的网站公告，当地时间周一12:40左右，装有成品油的油轮在吉达港卸货时受到外部力量冲击，周一美油走高，涨幅0.64%，美国启动了新冠疫苗接种行动，防疫限制措施将很快结束并提振美国石油需求的预期。英退贸易谈判延期周一也提振了金融市场。不过，投资者需注意到主要欧洲国家继续实施防疫封锁措施，导致燃料需求下降。例如德国计划从周三起实施更严格的封锁措施以抗击疫情。在美国，上周新增活跃钻机数为1月以来最多，因生产商继续恢复生产。

　　=====期货原油技术面分析=====

　　原油日线高位震荡中，布林带开口向上，均线多头排列，KDJ死叉被初步破坏，MACD金叉信号延续，上周五油价回调力度较小，本周油价有望进一步上探，上周高点阻力在47.74Nearby,3month3Resistance to daily highs48.66Nearby; Then there is50整数关口附近阻力，2019year8month7Daily low point50.52位置也可以参考。进一步强阻力在2month20Daily high point54.66附近；当然2019year10month10Daily low point51.38位也还存在一定的阻力。由于MACD也发出顶背离信号，也需要提防震荡筑顶的可能性；5The daily moving average support is currently at46.34Nearby,10The daily moving average support is currently at45.84，若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号；强支撑在20Daily moving average44.74Nearby,8月高点支撑在43.78Near.

Crude oil4小时图来看，布林带三轨朝上运行，MA20Under the moving averageMA50均线交金叉向上发散中，K线交投于布林中上轨之间，MACD快慢线位于零轴上方呈金叉缩口向下红色动能逐步缩量，KDJ三线交金叉向上发散运行，油价短线有回落动能，原油在日线上的趋势已经明朗，冲高47.7的点位也留下了指标回调的需求，后续的蜡烛收阴也要辨别是行情修正还是反转，当前强势上行中，我们可在根据回撤在低位进多，综合来看，后市原油短线操作思路上李联赢建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注47.8-48.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below46.0-46.3Frontline support.

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