MBG：脱欧谈判迎来利好，英镑大幅上涨

MBG导语：整体来看，随着疫苗的利好，以及美联储预计在未来几年内都将把利率维持在接近零的水平，美元中长线都将偏弱。不过由于前期美元指数下跌幅度较大，也不能排除在极短线上仍有技术性反弹。

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

上周五，美元指数上涨0.22%，主要是因市场担心美国财政刺激计划将推迟，且英国在未达成协议的情况下退欧的可能性越来越大。不过周一随着英国和欧盟同意继续就脱欧协议谈判，美元也因此回落。整体来看，随着疫苗的利好，以及美联储预计在未来几年内都将把利率维持在接近零的水平，美元中长线都将偏弱。不过由于前期美元指数下跌幅度较大，也不能排除在极短线上仍有技术性反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen

上周五，美元兑日元下跌0.18%，主要是因英国无协议脱欧的可能性带动避险情绪的升温，使得日元的避险属性得到强化，另外，市场对美联储进一步宽松货币的预期也让一部分资金转向日元。总体来看，维持美元兑日元为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of European currencies

上周五，欧元兑美元下跌0.21%，主要是受到英国硬脱欧风险的拖累。本周在美联储宽松政策前景的背景下，欧元仍有上升动能。因此，继续维持欧元为偏强结构，但由于前期涨幅较大，空间仍有待验证。

On the UK side

上周五，英镑兑美元下跌0.49%；不过周一，英镑兑美元开盘跳涨130点，主要是因昨夜英国首相约翰逊在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行电话会晤后，共同表示将继续推进英欧贸易谈判。总的来看，短线维持英镑为震荡结构。

In terms of commodity currency

上周五，商品货币相对较弱。主要是因美元指数相对较为强势，以及市场风险偏好的下降。不过随着市场对疫苗的乐观预期，投资者广泛看好未来经济前景，而大宗商品价格则受到这种乐观情绪的支撑，中线还是有不错的支撑，但短线上由于近期涨幅较大，继续上行的空间或许已相对有限。

commodity market

goldaspect

上周五，金价走低，主要是因财政刺激谈判陷入僵局与美国疫苗马上将获得批准的消息一直令金价承压。另外，全球黄金ETF持仓持续下跌，预计短线黄金仍然承压。

In terms of oil prices

上周五，油价从九个月高点回落，主要是因美国新一轮纾困方案谈判陷入僵局，降低了石油需求近期内得到提振的可能性。周一欧佩克将公布月度crude oil市场报告，周二IEA将公布月度原油市场报告。周三欧佩克+部长级监督委员会将举行会议，投资者需重点关注。整体来看，虽然油价仍为偏强结构，但也有整理需求。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，上周五，恒指收涨0.36%，泡泡玛特上市首日收涨超79%，盘中市值一度突破1100亿港元。考虑到参议院共和党人可能不会支持由两党提出、规模达9080亿美元的纾困方案，美国新纾困方案谈判依旧胶着，美股周五受压，纳指踏入中段一度滑落1%，道指都回吐超过100点，预计短线港股也存在一定压力。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Australia/US and Europe/美多头可兑现利润。

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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