Li Lianying:12.5非农冲高回落下周黄金白银怎么看，黄金原油...

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goldMarket trend analysis

Friday(12month4day)金价冲高回落，现货黄金一度跌逾10美元，刷新日低至1829.29dollar/盎司，稍早金价触及1848.21dollar/Ounces, for11month23日以来最高水平；冠状病毒疫苗研发与分发方面的进展，降低了黄金的避险投资吸引力，美股三大指数均创历史新高，投资者在股市上扬之际对前几个交易日大涨锁定获利，此外美元指数回升、十年期美债收益率创3月以来新高也令金价承压。

　　在美国11月非农就业报告发布后，金价迅速下跌，随后先升后跌，并刷新日低。不过对美国新刺激措施的押注，提振了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力，并令金价仍有望录得四周来首周上涨。本周黄金futuresrise in price2.9%。BMO基本与贵金属衍生品交易主管Tai Wong表示，经过连续四天的强劲反弹，金价在每盎司1850美元的关键技术水平之前出现获利回吐，该水准被视为一个重大阻力，因为它在过去两个月作为支撑的韧性非常强。黄金对明显疲弱的美国非农就业报告的反应是抛售而非上涨，

　　从日线图来分析；金价持续在1825上方，前三日金价连涨，周五在非农数据公布前走小幅区间盘整，尽管整体上依旧呈现震荡偏多状态，但是高位始终承压1855一带，结构性的压制初步凸显。只不过，波段结构上依旧没有出现较为明显的拐点信号，冲刺行情的可能始终没有消除。如果黄金上涨，下一个测试目标将是1855关口。由于美国非农数据出台，估计数据将影响金价走出波动区间。1小时图金价布林通道张口有所收窄，短期均线EMA5AndMA10双线向上角度有所回缓。指标上，MACDThe positive kinetic energy column of the indicator continues,RSI指标触碰超买线后有所回落。上方1860-1865一带直接决定了行情下一步的结构强弱，而低位1820一带则象征这反弹多头能否守住反弹成果，遏制住中期回撤跌幅。所以综合分析下周一操作上李联赢建议高空低多操作即可，上方关注1848-1850One line of resistance, pay attention below1821-1823Frontline support,

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis

Friday(12month4day)欧市盘中，美国原油期货价格上涨逾1%Trading in46美元上方，亚洲时段一度涨至3月初以来新高46.56dollar/桶，有望连续第五周上涨，此前主要产油国同意继续限制产量，以应对受新冠病毒影响的需求，但妥协协议的力度不及预期。OPEC+确认了逐步增产20010000 barrels/日的计划，应基于市场分析来决定放松减产力度的速度。将是逐渐实施的过程，OPEC+We will1月份产量增加5010000 barrels/日，放松减产力度将按比例分配。OPEC+Will be on12Monthly production reduction77010000 barrels/Day,1月会缩小到减产72010000 barrels/Day.

　　李联赢认为OPEC+达成折衷的产量协议后，将明年一季度和二季度布伦特及美国原油价格预测均上调了3dollar/桶。一季度布伦特油价预估从48The US dollar has been raised to51美元，二季度预测从50The US dollar has been raised to53美元。一季度WTI油价预估从45The US dollar has been raised to48美元，二季度预测从47The US dollar has been raised to50美元。并将2022年价格预测下调了1dollar/Barrel,OPEC+石油供应将增加，包括联酋的供应。

　　日线上看原油连续收出三连阳，并且从趋势上看早盘直接回收前期回落高点46.2上方，短期走出一个V型反转形态。油价强势上行，突破了自46.3震荡下行以来的下降通道上轨阻力，再次回到了46上方，最近说过的阻力平台45.6如果突破，则预示着油价的强势回调已经结束，将要延续上行，45.6位置今天在突破后并进行了回测而后大幅上涨，小幅走出新高，4小时图中标注了一条自43.9以来的短期上升趋势线，需要关注44的支撑情况，触及此趋势线可以布局多单操作，而45.6位置也转化成了近期的支撑平台，MACD指标快慢线形成金叉运行良好，红色能量柱持续放量，说明油价的上涨还没有结束，所以综合分析下周一操作上李联赢建议低多为主操作。上方关注47-47.5一线阻力；下方关注45.5-44Frontline support;

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This article is written by Li Lianyingyy57564As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.