Li Lianying:12.4Analysis of trading strategies and US market trends for gold and crude oil in the evening non-agricultural market...

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goldnews flash:


Friday(12month4day)Shanghai Gold Exchange GoldT+DClosing up0.45%to381.88element/Gram; silverT+DClosing up1.07%to5012element/Kilograms. The gold price continues to maintain a volatile upward trend, mainly benefiting from the weak trend of the US dollar. At the same time, optimistic expectations of a new round of US fiscal stimulus also support the gold price. However, concerns about the continued escalation of the epidemic may limit the rise of gold prices.


The two houses of Congress are currently working together to reach an agreement, with Democrats taking the lead in agreeing to concessions. Goldman Sachs believes that a deal is expected to be reached by the end of the year. The economic weakness shown by vaccines and data has led the market to be bearish on the safe haven US dollar, driving gold prices to achieve three consecutive increases. However, goldETFThe last five consecutive reductions in holdings have exceeded30Tons, which to some extent limits the increase in gold prices, and investors also need to be wary of the impact of vaccination on gold prices.


Technical analysis of gold:


The daily chart has formed three consecutive bullish lows and rebounded, with a large potential for sustained growth. The daily chart broke the previous weak downward trend and forcefully pulled back the oscillating saw. The weakness was only three times, and after three turns, the oscillation or reversal occurred. Yesterday, accompanied by a wave of rising and falling, the closing price remained at a high level in the late trading session,4Hour from1764Since the bottom rebounded, the continuous positive rebound has been strong, accompanied by a single negative trendKAfter the retracement of the line, it quickly regained lost ground and organized in exchange for time and space. However, yesterday's time rhythm did not show the trend of closing at a low level. Although there was a trend of exploring high and falling, the closing was the key to determining the strength and weakness of the next day. Only when closing at a low level will it turn down the next day, and yesterday's downward trend will be held10The unit moving average is further raised.4There are signs of consolidation driving the indicators upwards in some areas during the hour, in conjunction with the recent weak performance of the US dollar. Continue to boost the rebound of gold and silver. The hourly chart forms a wave of step oscillations and upward movements, so based on comprehensive analysis of operations, Li Lianying suggests that low positions should be the main focus, while high positions should be the secondary focus, and attention should be paid to the upper level1855-1857One line of resistance, pay attention below1825-1823Frontline support,


　　crude oilQuick news;


Friday（12month4Shanghai crude oil prices are rising, with main contracts2101At one point, it rose to7month22A new high in recent days302.6element/Bucket, distance from important neck line in the early stage305.7element/The bucket is not far away, closing at the end of the day295.9element/Barrel7.9element/Barrel, increase2.74%. Previously, major oil producing countries agreed to continue limiting production to cope with the impact of the pandemic on demand, but the agreement was less than expected.


　　OPEC+The compromise agreement reached is to be reached by Kazakhstan next year1Starting to increase production in the month5010000 barrels/Day, i.eOPEC+The alliance will start from1Starting from the beginning of the month, the scale of production reduction has shrunk to72010000 barrels/On the other hand, the compensatory production reduction time insisted by the United Arab Emirates has been extended to3At the end of the month. In addition, the US dollar was heavily shorted by the market due to the impact of vaccine strikes and good progress in fiscal stimulus, pushing up crude oil priced in US dollars to a nine month high. However, investors still need to be cautious of the impact of the epidemic on oil prices.


Technical analysis of crude oil:


Yesterday, crude oil held onto the lower bound and rebounded to a higher level. Repeatedly touching the previous high point, there are signs of upward momentum breaking, and the daily chart of double consecutive yang is ultimately a method of organizing and transforming time for space. Locally speaking, the key is to break through46.26High point position. This breakthrough is necessary to open up space.4Hourly initial backtesting43.90After stabilizing nearby, it is currently rising again. From the perspective of retreat space, there is no continuity and it can quickly recover. Therefore, the retracement at the beginning of the week is seen as a correction of momentum. There is a possibility of a breakthrough when reaching high again, and as we repeatedly reach high during the week, we will step back. from4When I was young, the Bollinger Bands ran upwards,KLine operation and near the Bolin track,MACDThe golden fork is upward, and the green energy column is released twice,KDJThree line adhesive operation, with a strong bullish trend in the market, so based on comprehensive analysis and operation, Li Lianying suggests falling back and taking advantage of the trend to go long. Please pay attention to the above47-47.3One line of resistance, pay attention below45.3-45Frontline support,


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This article is written by Li Lianyingyy57564As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.