MBG：美刺激计划继续施压美元，今晚非农数据恐难有太大...

MBG 导语：今晚21:30The United States will announce11月失业率和11月季调后非农就业人口，目前市场预计美国11The monthly unemployment rate is6.8%，季调后非农就业人口为48.6万人，考虑到疫情的影响经济数据难有较大回升，预计美元指数仍然偏弱，但由于近期下跌幅度较大，不排除在极短线上有技术性反弹。

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

周四，美元指数再创2018year4月以来新低，主要是因美国财政刺激政策出现新进展，加上对于疫苗的乐观情绪，市场风险偏好普遍回升，美元承压。今晚21:30The United States will announce11月失业率和11月季调后非农就业人口，目前市场预计美国11The monthly unemployment rate is6.8%，季调后非农就业人口为48.6万人，考虑到疫情的影响经济数据难有较大回升，预计美元指数仍然偏弱，但由于近期下跌幅度较大，不排除在极短线上有技术性反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen

周四，美元兑日元跌0.55%，主要还是因市场谨慎情绪升温，目前投资者进一步押注美联储后市会有更强力的宽松措施，打压美元指数跌至两年半新低；另外，11月受大选僵局、财政协议无果以及疫情复燃状况影响，这也令更多避险资金在周五美国非农就业报告出炉前重新转移回日元资产。因此，预计短线美/日仍然偏弱。

In terms of European currencies

周四，欧元兑美元上涨0.26%，主要还是受美元疲软的提振走高，另外，欧洲央行表示，将在12month10日开会时提供进一步刺激措施以帮助欧元区，也提振了欧元走强。整体来看，欧元短线仍有上升动能，但需注意正乖离是否过大。

On the UK side

周四，英镑刷新三个月高位，主要是因欧盟首席代表巴尼尔此前表示，谈判已到“成败关键时刻”。不过尾盘英镑有所回落，主要是由于欧盟提出了新的内容，磋商陷入僵局。因此，预计英镑短线仍有上升动能，但空间仍有待验证。

In terms of commodity currency

周四，商品货币相对较强。一方面是因美元的疲软；另一方面是因疫苗的利好引领全球经济复苏前景，令大宗商品价格和风险资产获得良好支撑。因此，预计澳元、纽元仍有上升动能，但空间或已相对有限。

commodity market

goldaspect

周四，金价一定刷新11month23The highest point since the beginning of the day1844.02dollar/盎司，主要是因美元持续走软，以及投资者谨慎乐观地认为美国国会更加接近达成经济刺激协议。不过，黄金ETF持仓量连续八天下降，投资者也需谨慎。因此，预计黄金仍有上升动能，但空间相对有限。

In terms of oil prices

周四，油价涨近1%，主要是因OPEC+成员国表示，将在明年1月份小幅增产50万桶。因此，短线继续维持油价为高位震荡偏多结构。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周四，港股恒指收涨0.74%，其中，餐饮板块涨幅居前。考虑到美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳指再创新高，标普500Index closed down0.06%，道琼斯指数收涨0.29%。因此，预计短线港股并不存在太大压力，或许还是上涨空间。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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