Li Lianying:12.3黄金白银投资策略分析、黄金白银最新涨跌预...

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goldLatest market analysis:

Thursday（12month3During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading in1829Nearby. Wednesday（12month2日）金价实现两连涨，涨幅0.87%，收盘时站上1830一线，因美国新冠救助计划的前景，增强了金价作为对冲可能出现的通胀的工具的吸引力。美国11monthADPIncrease in employment30.7万，不及预期与前值，亦推升金价上涨。美元指数下跌0.19%，最低达到90.98，受美国出台进一步财政刺激的预期拖累。

      美联储发布的褐皮书和ADP就业人数都预示美国经济正在放缓，令财政和货币政策的加码显得相当紧迫和重要，在此情况下，民主党人首次让步支持以9080亿美元方案为谈判基础，让市场对刺激法案的达成更有信心。美国褐皮书显示经济放缓趋势正在形成，在美联储最新发布的褐皮书中，决策者似乎在暗示，他们此前担心的第二波疫情将引发的冬季经济放缓正在逐步形成趋势。褐皮书增加了投资者对未来经济前景的担忧，美元指数尾盘快速回落，支撑金价继续上涨。

     黄金最新资讯解读：

　　昨日黄金先于1810附近震荡，欧盘时段再度出现强拉升，测压至1832一线，晚间行情又有所回撤至1813，但随后再度震荡攀爬，测压至1830，且日线收得一小阳，收于1830Near.

　　按照日线结构的技术预期，在前一日大阳线贯穿突破关键压力后，行情再收一阳也是无可厚非的，且在连续两阳后，技术上也允许今日行情再有延伸上涨的需求，上方甚至可关注20日线，以及前期跌破口1850附近压力测试，但是需要注意的是，目前黄金的上涨动能主要还是情绪化使然，隔夜小非农ADP数据的表现不佳，以及受美国出台进一步财政刺激的预期影响，市场对于黄金才抱有短线看涨的预期，如果基本面的利多推动一旦消失，黄金或有可能再度重启弱势状态。即便近期市场情绪化推动黄金上涨，但从昨日上涨节奏来看，其短线多头动能也是在被慢慢消耗掉的，随着时间的推移和行情的消化，上方技术性的压制作用也会变得越来越强。

　　根据日线以及小时图走势结构，日内上方先关注1840争夺，虽然此位会有争夺表现，承压回修概率也大，但日线级别以及小时图级别都允许此位出现突破，将高点进一步上拉的需要，不过即便再度上拉，小时图也会逐渐呈现隔夜预期的顶背离状态，这也就会给短线行情带来调整压力。如果日内行情站稳至1840上方，那么1850、1860都可能成为下一个测压目标位，尤其是1860一线，可暂将其锁定为波段级别的关键强压。日内下方则关注1820-17支撑带测试，10日线也基本处于此位，同时也是上周大跌后的首个回弹压力，1820得失还是会有一定的短线参考价值的。未来行情是否能重回弱势，可关注1800Gains and losses.

　　日内操作上，稳健者多看少动，规避当前混乱的交易环境带来的不确定风险，同时也是规避非农数据前市场情绪谨慎的风险。激进则根据技术预期，继续尝试区间内短线低多高空，但也务必压低仓位，以防突发状况风险。

　　超级非农周、如何把握？提前布局方案

　　非农行情有个外号被称作“送钱行情”，因为非农数据公布常常会给市场带来一波剧烈波动，是投资人赚钱的好机会。我们经常可以看到非农数据有三项数值，即前期值，预测值和实际的公布值。前期值就是已知的上个月发布的实际数值。预测值是市场在这个基础上，根据当月的经济数据来进行的对非农数据的一个预测，预测值代表的是市场的一个希望。实际值就是根据调查结果所发布的实际数值。由于每个月都会有对非农数据的预期，所以在非农数据之前的黄金价格是建立在该预期数字的基础上的，因此非农真实的数据与其预期值的偏差才是决定黄金价格行情走势的关键。当公布的实际数值好于预期值时，美国美联储就会倾向于加息，美元升值，黄金的避险能力遭到削弱，进而导致黄金价格的下跌，反之亦然。

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This article is written by Li Lianyingyy57564As a contributor, I interpret global economic news, analyze global investment trends, and provide insights intocrude oil、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，技术总监李联赢在线解一套，亏损回本，一对一实时指导。由于网络推送延迟性，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处。