Li Lianying:11.30开盘黄金还会跌吗？今日黄金期货白银TDtrend...

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  Friday(11month27day)In the Asian market, the US dollar index remained basically stable, with current reports92关口附近，现货gold短线持续回落，目前交投在1808dollar/盎司左右，已经自接近1814dollar/盎司的日内高点回落。本周传来的新冠疫苗乐观消息依然令金价面临下行压力，美国总统特朗普最新表示，新冠疫苗将最早在下周开始交付。此外，美国大选结果不确定性降低，这同样对金价构成利空。黄金价格周四小幅上涨，全球新增冠状病毒感染病例激增，令人对经济快速复苏产生疑虑，并增强了黄金的避险吸引力。不过，有关新冠疫苗的正面消息仍然令多头承压，金价因此自高位回落。现货黄金收报1808.05dollar/盎司，盘中最高触及1817.85dollar/盎司。从技术面来看，1800dollar/盎司将是一个关键水平，一旦失守该位，金价面临进一步下滑的风险。

　　现货黄金继本周前两个交易日大幅下挫后，周三至周四处于横向盘整阶段。周四凌晨，美联储公布最新会议纪要，暗示可能在12月份加码宽松力度，这给美元带来了下行压力，但随着投资者将目光从疫苗利好信息转移到疫情依然严峻的事实上，这也支撑了美元，美元周四小幅上涨。当前全球经济环境出现了一定程度的变化，主要经济体长期利率水平预期正趋向高于其此前的预估，而这将遏制金价的上行空间。除非全球主要经济体通胀率此后出现戏剧性的升温，否则将很难再支撑金价按其之前的预测幅度上涨近期金价的回调是波动而非转折，价格料将在更多通胀证据出现的时候攀升、目前只是一些时间的问题，因为市场可能需要看到几次美国强劲CPI数据，或者油价出现大变动以反映更高通胀，在那之前，黄金可能会继续面临无通货再膨胀的周期性轮动的压力。

　　基本面上，目前相当明朗，疫苗的利于黄金空头，近期黄金下跌也是因为疫苗。同时，美国财政部和美联储闹别扭也是一个诱因。不过，这些都只是暂时的，我们无法忽视一个重大的问题：全球央行持续放水以挽救经济是不变的，疫情持续则继续放水；疫情结束，则难免全球大通胀。从今年农产品指数，以及铜，铝等金属连续创下近年来新高都可以看到，再有大葱价格飞涨。所以，对于黄金中短期还处于空头，但中长期保持看涨不变，本次下跌就是多头布局入场的最佳机会。

　　黄金走势分析及操作建议

　　黄金技术面分析：昨日感恩节晚盘休市，全天黄金波动不大，在1805-1818区间震荡，多头得以喘息，日K线趋势仍处于下跌趋势中的修正格调，目前连续两个交易日，黄金在日线收十字星，压迫在前期单边均线之下，多头还差一口气才能走出上涨大力度。本周时间很快，今天已经是周五，时间如白驹过隙，转瞬即逝。周初黄金连续大跌，在周二抵达1800关口后走震荡修正，大周期从1850破位后，空头趋势明显，并且还未出现转折信号，但小周期从1800进行反弹最高到1818，有企稳迹象，并且已经震荡了两个交易日时间，横盘震荡，蓄势待发！正所谓横有多长，竖有多高，只是现在方向依然不是很明确，但是可以确定的是1800位置成为了当前行情下跌的关键支撑，没有破位这一位置前，黄金将会继续维持震荡甚至是反弹的走势！

　　技术面来看，经过本周四个交易日的发展，黄金低点不断抬高，周一最低在1800，周二最低在1801，周三最低在1804，周四最低在1805，而高点也是屡创新高至1818，所以，黄金低位震荡已经形成了上涨通道趋势，无论从周期/index/KLine/结构等角度出发，均可满足黄金实现多头的突破，阶段中的目标位置也将以1850美元关口为箱体调整修正的受压区域，短线仍需注意1820as well as1830美元关口的受压情况。直线上涨还差市场的一个刺激，等待多头爆发。4Hour levelK线收出均匀小实体整理形态，底部在不断抬升，小时级别伴随反复的探高回落但始终未跌破1800关口，这一波趋势也属于小周期的蓄势阶段，综合来看，下周黄金操作思路上李联赢建议回调做多为主，上方重点关注1810-1813Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1774-1763Frontline support. The market is constantly changing, and it is necessary to obtain daily online real-time guidance on operation strategies and unpacking strategies. You can directly add your own one-on-one guidance for communication on WeChat【yy57564】I will try my best to help you solve your problems.

　　crude oilTrend analysis and operational suggestions

Analysis of crude oil news: United StatesWTI 1Monthly crude oilfuturesElectronic disk prices Thursday(11month26day)Closing down0.72USD, decline1.58%，油价从八个月高点回落，在OPEC+讨论推迟增产的会议召开前，该组织一些成员国产生了分歧。同时，由于周四适逢美国感恩节假期，市场交易清淡。伊拉克副领导人本周批评OPEC，称在要求成员国放慢产油活动前，应考虑成员国的经济和政治状况。OPEC主席周四表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因内部数据表明，明年年初可能出现新的石油过剩。到目前为止，根据今年早些时候一项协议所削减的产量大部分已经恢复。

　　原油技术面分析：原油油价昨日开盘在44.8dollar/桶位置，开盘后出现了一波上涨45.6水平，油价出现了回撤，在二次触及45.0水平位置后，油价再次出现上涨，一度给到高点46.2dollar/桶位置承压，最后回落收盘在44.9dollar/桶水平。日线收盘中阳线，高价破前高，低价没有破前低，出现了出头走势，布林带开口向上，油价运行在中上轨，均线粘连运行在油价下方，形成金叉向上发散中，附图指标上油价运行在零轴上方，多头动能持续放量中，整体表现多头趋势。

　　四小时图显示，油价在11month2Daily contact33.6位置后出现了一波连续上涨走势，在触及43.0位置后完成了ABC浪的上涨，随后出现调整，在触及40.3dollar/桶位置后，油价出现了一波连续上涨的上涨浪，进一步突破了前期震荡平台阻力位出现走高，进一步表现了多头上涨格局，在这波上涨浪中出现了小幅调整，随后出现走高，后市如果调整浪不出现增强不会改变当前格局，那么我们计算出多空分水岭支撑关注44.7dollar/桶位置，然后就是43.1dollar/桶位置支撑。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上李联赢个人建议以回调做多为主，上方短期重点关注46.2-46.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below44.5-44.7Frontline support.

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This article is written by Li Lianyingyy57564As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.