李联赢：黄金走势分析及操作建议，原油后市如何操作？

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goldMarket trend analysis;

Tuesday（11month10日）黄金上涨，最高触及1890dollar/盎司，主要是因为隔夜大跌后的调整需求，隔夜金价大幅走弱，一度跌逾5%, to1850关口附近，振幅约115USD, closing down4.53%, for8month11日以来最大单日跌幅，抹去了美国大选以来的全部涨幅。因随着首个新冠疫苗后期试验成功的消息传出，促使投资者抛售避险黄金，涌向风险较高的资产。美元指数低位反弹0.57%，因市场愈发相信，疫苗可以让美国经济增长速度足够快，从而推高利率，道指与标普500均创历史高位，需要重点关注美联储多位票委的讲话和新冠疫苗的进一步消息，对于特朗普的动态消息仍需予以关注。

　　疫苗利好消息对于市场的冲击很大，但当前的市场情绪存在过激的情况，至少在大规模接种新冠疫苗之前，全球新冠确诊病例预计还会保持增加。按照辉瑞方面的预期，我们需要等到2021年才会迎来疫苗的逐步分发，期间的不确定性以及政治风险相信依然会给黄金提供稳固的避险支撑。与此同时，市场仍在关注大选以及财政刺激法案对于金价的影响。如果大选的僵局能够得到进一步的明朗化，财政刺激方案的希望将会进一步升温，这将对于能够对冲通胀风险的黄金资产实现推动的效果。但也需要注意的是，经济形势已经出现了明显的复苏势头，如果时间拖得太久，财政刺激的推动力度是否足够就有待考验了，可能会限制黄金的上行空间。

　　日线图来看，昨日一根大阴线直接贯穿布林带上中下轨，今日开盘金价有所反弹，由于跌势过猛，暂时的反弹修正是属于正常的，但目前技术指标MACD红色动能柱大阳后转阴，金叉重粘死叉，KDJ死叉向下运行，所以后市还是看跌的一个走势；四小时来看，目前金价在1880附近盘整运行，MACD绿柱动能发力后减弱，死叉有勾头迹象，KDJ死叉有转金叉迹象，目前还是看整理的走势；小时线来看，布林带大开口后收口，金价在布林带中轨附近运行，MACD绿柱转红运行，但KDJ金叉有超买迹象，有向下运行结死叉的迹象，走势上还是偏胶着。黄金后市短线偏于震荡整理，大趋势还是看空。综合来看：今日黄金短线操作思路上李联赢个人建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注1890-1895Resistance, short-term focus below1850-1855Frontline support.

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis

Tuesday（11month10日）原油自日低反弹逾3%to41dollar/桶附近，能源领域分析师指出，疫苗研发取得进展的状况，意味着全球冰封已久的跨境商务及休闲旅行活动终于有望在此后开始解冻，这对于原油需求前景将构成直接的利多。预计在此背景下，国际原油价格将会录得持续上行的行情。另外新一波疫情爆发将推迟但不会破坏石油市场的再平衡。不过俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示，现在在OPEC+产油国部长级监督委员会会议讨论改变OPEC+协议还为时过早。到2021年夏季，油价可能会回到危机前的水平；未来几个月油价将升至40-50dollar/桶的水平，伊朗石油重返市场将是明年下半年的问题，拜登政府对油价来说是利好，因为更严格的监管，更高的资本成本，如果OPEC+延迟减产，石油库存将增加到明年二季度。

　　原油日内回撤39.4一线后便再度震荡回弹，欧盘测压至41一线压力，美盘时段再次测压至41.1一线，整体保持偏强状态，原油昨晚受利好消息快速上涨，打破区间震荡最高涨至41.3，日线上昨日收一根上影线的阳线并且突破布林带中轨，K线于布林带中轨上方运行，MACD金叉多头放量，目前处于日线布林带中轨附近震荡，原油昨日突破39.4附近压力，高点抬高、低点抬高，走出多头趋势，但由于上涨过快，价格与长期均线乖离率过大，短线有修复需求，结合MACDIn terms of indicators,DIFFOffline threadingDEA线，形成看空死叉，绿色能量柱逐渐变长，表明空头力量在增强，短期大概率还有一波下跌，综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上李联赢个人建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注42.5-43.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below40.3-39.8Frontline support.yy57564

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This article is provided by Li Lianying. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.