MBG：美刺激协议达成更进一步，美元短线或将继续承压

MBG 导语：救助法案接近达成协议，谈判将在周三继续进行，本周仍有希望能达成协议。此外，随着投资者的风险偏好回升，10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds touch6月份以来最高，美国股市的上涨，也施压美元。因此，短线来看美元仍然承压。

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美元方面，周二, 美元指数一度跌破93关口，创近一个月新低。主要是因为佩洛西表示，救助法案接近达成协议，谈判将在周三继续进行，本周仍有希望能达成协议。此外，随着投资者的风险偏好回升，10Yields of one-year treasury bond bonds touch6月份以来最高，美国股市的上涨，也施压美元。因此，短线来看美元仍然承压。
日元方面，周二，美元兑日元上涨0.08%，主要是因美国刺激方案的有望达成，以及美国的上行，带动了市场风险偏好的上升，日元承压。但考虑到全球新冠病例数加速上升，日元仍有较强的坚韧。因此，短线维持美/The day is a fluctuating structure.
欧系货币方面，周二，欧元兑美元创逾一周新高至1.1841，一方面是因美元创一周新低；另一方面欧洲央行官员表态当下不需要进一步宽松，欧元也因此受到提振。此外，疫情形势依旧严峻，也限制了欧元进一步走高的动力。因此，短线继续维持欧元为偏强结构，但盘中或多或少会面临压力。

英国方面，周二，英镑兑美元基本持平，主要是英国和欧盟就脱欧后贸易协议进行的谈判仍在僵持；此外，英国央行的政策前景偏向增加更多刺激措施，因新冠危机和英国脱欧拖累就业和投资。因此，预计英镑的上行将继续受限。


商品货币方面，周二，澳元、纽元整体走势较弱。主要是因澳联储会议纪要为澳洲联储在11月会议上进一步放宽货币政策开了绿灯，市场预计隔夜拆款利率将从目前的0.25%Down to0.1%，而且澳洲联储将把债券购买范围扩大到5-10年期债券，使得澳元承压。纽元同样是因目前市场预计纽约联储将继续释放宽松政策。因此，短线澳元、纽元整体仍然偏弱。
commodity market


gold方面，周二，金价小幅上涨，主要是因美元走软，以及市场对美国大选之前出台一揽子刺激计划抱有新的乐观情绪提振了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力。短线预计金价或有走高，但整体仍偏向震荡。


油价方面，周二，美油盘中一度涨逾2%, creating9month2New high in recent days41.90dollar/桶；不过APIcrude oil库存意外录得增加，油价尾盘回吐大部分涨幅。今晚22:30Will be announcedEIA原油库存，市场预计将录得减少24Ten thousand barrels, the previous value is a decrease381.8万桶。考虑到API库存意外增加，预计今晚EIA数据恐继续施压油价。


stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周二，港股高开低走，最终收涨0.11%Report24569.54点。个股方面，银行、新能源车涨幅靠前。考虑到隔夜美股普涨，短线上港股的压力或许也有减轻。技术上看，继续关注23200Support and24800The pressure.
abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.


Australia/元、镑/美空头可了结，欧/美多头可继续持有。


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