MEXGROUPEvening briefing2020-10-20

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数窄幅震荡。目前市场普遍关注美国新一轮刺激计划的谈判，考虑到今日将继续谈判，就目前市场的情绪来看，似乎对美国大选之前达成财政刺激计划的预期有所升温;此外，市场对拜登胜选的预期也有所升温，这也将令美元承压。因此，短线而言美元还是有一定压力，但技术上不排除有对于前两个交易日下跌的修正。

In terms of European currencies,日内，欧元兑美元同样保持窄幅震荡。虽然近两个交易日美元的回落对于欧元构成了一定支撑;但欧洲央行表示，当前并未耗尽一切可用的政策工具选项，未来必要时仍可拿出更多的行动措施。此外，欧洲疫情持续反弹，也限制了欧元的涨势。因此，短线欧元还是有一定压力，但上升动能还没有完全消耗殆尽。

On the UK side,日内，英镑兑美元小幅回落。虽然英国和欧盟再次就未来关系进行谈判后，不过，就目前来看，双方互逼对方让步，无协议脱欧的风险依然存在，英镑也因此承压。因此，短线我们认为英镑仍然承压。

In terms of commodity currency,日内，澳元、纽元整体走势较弱。主要是因澳联储会议记要为澳洲联储在11月会议上进一步放宽货币政策开了绿灯，市场预计隔夜拆款利率将从目前的0.25%Down to0.1%，而且澳洲联储将把债券购买范围扩大到5-10年期债券，使得澳元承压。纽元同样是因目前市场预计纽约联储将继续释放宽松政策。因此，短线澳元、纽元整体仍然偏弱。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，金价小幅回落，主要是因目前股市反映的预期是美国很难在大选前推出新一轮刺激政策，对金价形成拖累。目前市场观望情绪较浓，但考虑到疫情、美国大选以及英国脱欧等众多不确定性事件，继续维持黄金为震荡结构。

In terms of oil prices,日内，油价小幅走弱，主要是因海外疫情和新的封锁措施打压了需求前景，利比亚增加产量也令油价承压，但OPEC维稳油市的决心令油价跌幅受限。因此，短线继续维持油价为震荡结构。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/元、磅/美空头可兑现大部分利润。

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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