MEXGroup：欧美疫情爆发，避险需求或将继续推升美元

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Focus of foreign exchange market
美元方面，周四，美元指数大幅上涨，主要是因避险情绪升温提振了美元需求，欧美新冠病例的增加以及美国刺激方案几无进展，令投资者不安，增加了美元的避险买需。不过随着刺激方案的持续推进，以及美国上周初请失业金人数的持续高位，在一定程度上也令美元承压。但总体来看，随着疫情、刺激方案的僵持，以及美国远期利率曲线相对非美国曲线的变陡，预计短线美元还有走强的预期。今晚20:30The United States will announce9月零售销售月率，市场预计将录得0.70%, previous value is0.60%，投资者也需关注。

日元方面，周四，美元兑日元上涨0.25%，并未出现太大波动。主要是因美元与日元同有避险属性，令汇价并未出现趋势性走势。但考虑到安倍经济学加上负利率、大型资产购买和收益率曲线控制等货币政策已令日元被低估。因此，短线预计美/日上升空间有限，中线还有回落预期。

In terms of European currencies,周四，欧元兑美元创逾两周新低，主要还是美元走强和欧洲疫情二度爆发的影响。此外，投资者预期欧洲央行可能采取更为宽松的行动以应对通缩及经济复苏放缓，也使得欧元承压。整体来看，短线欧元或继续走软。

On the UK side,周四，英镑兑美元大幅下跌0.84%，主要是因约翰逊宣布英国伦敦实施疫情二级限制，与此同时，虽然欧盟领导人同意将与英国的贸易谈判延长数周，但同时也呼吁加紧准备在与英国的贸易谈判中出现无协议的局面。因此，短线维持为震荡略弱结构。

In terms of commodity currency,周四，商品货币普遍大跌，尤其是澳元。主要是因市场避险情绪升温，美元大幅走高;与此同时，澳洲联储坚定的鸽派立场及澳大利亚面临的经济和贸易困境进一步打压澳元。因此，短线维持澳元为偏弱结构。

commodity market
goldaspect,周四，金价一度跌至1890附近，但随着特朗普再度喊话推出更大规模刺激，帮助金价尾盘回升至1900上方，目前交易员仍在美元上涨和美国财政刺激可能性渺茫之间权衡。因此，短线继续维持黄金为震荡结构。

In terms of oil prices,周四，油价走出“V”型行情，亚盘和欧盘期间持续下挫，美盘初WTIcrude oil跌幅一度超4%。不过，随后因EIA库存录得大幅减少而大幅反弹。因此，短线继续维持油价为震荡结构。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，周四，港股恒指收跌2.06%Report9762.28spot;科技股重挫，阿里巴巴、美团、京东跌超4%。考虑到隔夜美股跌幅收窄，短线上港股的压力或许也有减轻。技术上看，继续关注23200Support and24800The pressure.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/美、磅/US bears can continue to hold.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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