MEXGroupEvening briefing2020-10-15

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,During the day, the US dollar index slightly rose, mainly due to the stalemate in negotiations on the US stimulus plan and the decline in global stock markets, driving safe haven buying demand;In addition, the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and the United States showed a "exponential growth". The curfew order and closure of cities in many European countries also increased the appeal of the safe haven dollar. Tonight?20:30The United States will announce the number of initial applicants, and currently the market expects the United States to10month10The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is82.5Ten thousand people, considering that the current US economy has not experienced a strong recovery and the number of unemployed people remains high, it is unlikely that the number of new applicants will significantly decline, which may exert pressure on the US dollar to some extent. However, overall, with the pandemic, the stalemate of the stimulus plan, and the steepening of the US forward interest rate curve relative to the non US curve, it is expected that the US dollar may still strengthen in the short term.

In terms of European currencies,Within the day, the euro fell slightly against the US dollar, mainly due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the impact of the second outbreak of the European epidemic. In the short term, the euro may continue to weaken.

On the UK side,Within the day, the pound agreed to a slight decline against the US dollar, although data shows that the probability of the UK leaving the EU without an agreement has increased since then40%Reduced to20-25%The prospect of orderly Brexit is favorable for the subsequent trend of the pound;But the short-term strength of the US dollar also puts some pressure on the pound. Investors should be aware that any outcome may occur before an agreement is reached, therefore, the short-term structure remains slightly weak in volatility.

In terms of commodity currency,During the day, commodity currencies were generally weak, especially the Australian dollar. Although Australia9The decrease in monthly employment was less than expected, but the number of employees did indeed decrease due to the lockdown measures2.95Ten thousand, the unemployment rate has also rebounded to6.9%This is by no means an encouraging data report. In addition, RBA Chairman Lowe stated that it is possible to lower interest rates to0.1% Market speculation suggests that the Federal Reserve of Australia may further lower interest rates next month. Therefore, maintaining the Australian dollar as a weak structure in the short term.

commodity market
goldaspect,The gold price weakened slightly in the day. On the one hand, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and the lack of progress in the US stimulus plan negotiation supported the US dollar index. In addition, the expected increase in gold production also suppressed the gold price. Therefore, in the short term, gold remains a volatile structure.

In terms of oil prices,Within the day, oil prices have slightly declined, mainly due to demand concerns caused by the epidemic, which has left bulls still hesitant. Tonight?23:00Will be announcedEIAcrude oilInventory data, early this morningAPICrude oil inventory has been announced, decreasing542.1Ten thousand barrels, with a decrease exceeding expectations. Based on past experience,APIInventory data andEIAInventory data has a strong positive correlation, soEIACrude oil inventories may also significantly decline. Therefore, in the short term, the expected downward space for oil prices is limited.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/US bears can continue to hold.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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