MEXGroupEvening briefing2020-10-13

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数小幅反弹，主要是因为疫情出现负面消息，欧美新冠疫情再度爆发，给美元提供支撑;但目前市场对美国新一轮财政刺激的预期挥之不去，这也令美元有所承压。今晚美国将公布9monthCPI数据，当前市场预期9After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate is0.2%，我们认为公布值可能与预期较为接近，影响较小。因此，短线而言美元或许还有反弹空间。

In terms of European currencies,日内，欧元兑美元小幅下跌，一方面是因欧洲二次疫情的爆发，令欧洲经济的复苏蒙上阴影;另一方面，目前市场预计欧洲央行将在12月份进一步扩大QE规模来应对通缩压力，这也令欧元进一步承压。因此，短线维持欧元为偏弱结构。

On the UK side,日内，英镑一度触及一个月高点，主要是因投资者对本周新一轮欧盟峰会前英欧双边谈判的前景继续保持乐观态度，提振了英镑。今晚22:00，英国央行行长贝利即将发表的讲话。目前市场预测贝利可能强调疫情对经济的影响还在持续，将会积极采取政策工具恢复经济。总的来说，贝利的立场偏向悲观的可能性更大，因此，短线英镑或有压力。

In terms of commodity currency,日内，除了纽元以外，澳元、加元整体较弱，尤其是澳元。主要是因中国前三季度对澳洲进出口总值同比下降1.1%，这对澳元有所不利;此外，澳洲本国第二波疫情爆发所带来的冲击已开始发酵，并推动澳洲联储准备下一轮宽松行动，这意味着即使美元继续承压，澳元也难以有更多上行空间。因此，短线维持澳元为偏弱结构。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，金价小幅走弱，主要是因欧美新冠疫情的再度爆发，推升了一些美元的避险需求，令金价承压;但考虑到美国最终还是将推出大规模财政刺激计划和美国大选的不确定性，这都将限制美元的反弹空间，因此，金价下行空间或有限。

In terms of oil prices,日内，油价冲高回落，虽然目前市场对拜登上台的预期升温，从而进一步推高油价。但从目前的crude oil市场来看，油价受到供需两端的压制，短线下行风险仍存。因此，短线维持油价为震荡结构。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/美多头可兑现利润。

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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