Mozhu: The rise in crude oil prices is stumbling, and the recovery on the demand side is difficult to see the dawn?

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Last week, oil prices remained strong and achieved victory within the week41.5Recovering from the US dollar barrier9All declines since mid monthThe strong inflow of bulls has brought a dawn of recovery to the sluggish oil prices. After all, there haven't been many favorable factors for oil prices recently,技术周期对于crude oil也并未展现太多技术性多头的推动，Therefore, the sustained rebound of bullish oil prices has boosted market confidence in the short term.
However, as oil prices stopped rising, bullish sentiment did not continue, and yesterday oil prices fell more than3%At one point, approaching39.2The US dollar barrier.This is not bad news for oil bulls,Due to the current oil price still being within the range for correction, short-term market scanning can also adjust indicators for large cycles,After the demand side recovers, there will be a strong trend buying frenzy.

Today, the market will announce OPEC's monthly crude oil market reportThe specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually in Beijing time18-20Announce around the time).Last month, the monthly report released by OPEC showed that8Increase in monthly crude oil production76Ten thousand barrels, reaching2405Thousands of barrels per day. OPEC predicts the growth rate of global crude oil demand this year, from-90610000 barrels per day reduced to-946Ten thousand barrels.
This month, according to market research,9OPEC's daily crude oil production increased month on month16Ten thousand barrels, reaching2438Ten thousand barrels. Among them, the supply from Iran, Libya, and Angola has increased.Market expectations,Libya's oil production may further recover.That is to say, the supply of oil in the market will continue to increase.Due to the ongoing global pandemic, there is still a long way to go for the recovery of crude oil demand.
Therefore,OPEC may further lower its expectations for the growth rate of crude oil demand, and this report may be negative for crude oil.Given the bearish sentiment in the market at the beginning of the week,This may be in line with the expectations of the OPEC report, and there may be a behavior of selling based on expectations.And the market will also be announced tomorrowAPIas well asEIAData, at that time, it is necessary to closely monitor changes in market risks.

As for the current technological perspective,Crude oil has deviated from the previously planned range of operationWhat currently exists is interval correction.Given the strong bearish maintenance of crude oil at the beginning of the week, leaving a small gap that could not be filled, this week's oil prices will depend on the long position of crude oil to be filled40.7USD level,As for whether there will be a continuation, pay attention to the above41and41.5Can the US dollar level stabilize and recover.
Therefore,For today's European and American market stage, oil prices have experienced a short-term pullback below39.7At the US dollar level, small stop loss can be used to participate in long crude oil orders, in order to view the replenishment of the gap.It is recommended to gradually take protective measures after making profits to prevent sudden market fluctuations. This approach is more prudent and can effectively control risks in the face of risky markets!Additionally, closely monitor OPEC's monthly report andAPIas well asEIAdata
Note: Due to different reference stock levels, there may be price deviations, so please correspond to the corresponding points.