MEXGroupEvening briefing2020-10-09

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数继续回落，尽管市场对美国大选前能否出台新一轮财政刺激还存在疑虑，但特朗普的改口恢复谈判，使得市场对美国政府未来将出台财政刺激的预期升温，这也使得美股持续上涨，打压了美元的避险需求。但考虑到美国以及欧洲多国疫情仍然严峻，以及市场对短期内达成全面刺激协议的可能性仍持谨慎态度，因此，短线预计美元下行空间有限。

In terms of European currencies,日内，欧元、英镑相对较为强势，一方面是因美元的疲软;另外，德国出口和进口都在改善也在一定程度上支撑了欧元。考虑到目前市场仍然倾向于欧元进一步升值，因此，继续维持欧元为偏多结构。

On the UK side,日内，英镑兑美元继续走高，除了美元指数继续回落以外，目前市场对于英国与欧盟达成脱欧协议的可能性已升至66%，这也对英镑构成了一定利多。因此，短线继续维持英镑为偏强结构。

In terms of commodity currency,日内，商品货币集体走强，其中纽元领涨。一方面是因美元的走软;另一方面，是因市场对于接下来美国更多财政刺激抱有希望，外加全球股市的上涨，也提振了市场风险偏好。因此，短线继续维持澳元、纽元为偏多结构。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，金价整体冲高，主要是因黄金倾向于在刺激政策环境中受益，因为它被普遍视为应对通胀和货币贬值的对冲工具。但从近几个交易日黄金ETF持仓来看并无明显增加，这也暗示金价的上涨空间可能受限。

In terms of oil prices,日内，油价波动幅度较小，主要是因欧洲疫情持续爆发，令人担忧，而且隔夜大涨后，存在一定的回调需求，但仍守住隔夜大部分涨幅。另外，考虑到美股、亚洲股市的上涨，OPEC暂时不增产以及飓风导致部分停产，油价或许还有进一步上涨的可能。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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