MEXGroup：风险情绪回升，可继续关注商品货币

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Focus of foreign exchange market
美元方面，Thursday,The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day. Although US President Trump called off negotiations with the Democratic Party on a new stimulus plan on Tuesday, he subsequently pushed for the approval of a more targeted independent stimulus bill to offset the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, and the resurgence of risk sentiment also weighed on the US dollar. But we are cautious about the possibility of reaching a comprehensive stimulus agreement in the short term, so we expect the US dollar to continue to receive support before the US election. Overall, the short-term downward space for the US dollar is limited, and there may be a rebound.

日元方面，周四，美元兑日元涨0.05%Mainly due to the approval of the US independent stimulus bill, the rebound in risk sentiment has dampened demand for safe haven, and in addition, the strength of the stock market has also weighed on the yen. However, considering that the US Yield curve has not steepened further, we believe that the yen is still expected to strengthen gradually. Therefore, continue to maintain beauty/The day is a fluctuating structure.

In terms of European currencies,周四，欧元、英镑冲高回落，一方面是因美元的盘中走强;另一方面从欧洲央行会议纪要来看，也表示了对强劲欧元的担忧，并提到欧元汇率升值已对通胀前景产生了实质性影响，这在一定程度上也使得欧元承压。英国方面，随着达成脱欧协议的前景有所改善，英镑趋稳。但就目前来看，未来仍然存在不确定性。因此，短线对于欧元、英镑而言仍将承压，上升空间有限。

In terms of commodity currency,周四，加元、澳元较强，纽元相对疲弱。主要是因新西兰联储表示，正积极致力于负利率以及融资换贷款计划，并表示近期的货币政策行动正对降低利率起效，施压纽元。而加元的走强主要是因大宗商品价格上涨的提振。澳元方面，尽管澳洲联储继续发出可能进一步放松货币政策的信号，但值得注意的是，澳洲联储仍然不愿接受负利率，也不愿干预汇率，这对澳元有利;此外，澳元与中国经济的表现更为密切。因此，短线澳元、加元或许还要反弹，但空间不一定大。

commodity market
goldaspect，周四，金价冲高回落，主要是因美国总统大选的不确定性，以及市场对美国财政刺激措施抱有乐观预期，推动金价走高。因此，短线继续维持黄金为震荡偏多结构，但上升空间相对有限。

In terms of oil prices,周四，油价涨逾3%Mainly supported by the shutdown of production before the onset of the Gulf of Mexico storm in the United States and the possible reduction of production in Saudi Arabia and Norway. In the short term, there is still significant pressure near the age limit, so it is expected that the short-term upward space is limited.

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，周四，香港恒生指数先跌后涨，最终收盘下跌0.20%Report24193.35Point. Considering that the three major US stock indices opened high on Thursday and the intraday gains expanded, this may still have some support for Hong Kong stocks in the short term. Technically, continue to follow23200Support and25000The pressure.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

pound/USA and Australia/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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