MEXGroup：特朗普叫停刺激谈判，美元大幅反弹，商品货币承压

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of US dollarsTuesday,美元从低位大幅反弹，主要是因美国总统特朗普表示他将停止与民主党的刺激方案谈判直到大选结束，这让人们对经济复苏生疑，并推动美元等避险资产的买盘。因此，短线美元或许还有反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen，周二，美元兑日元下跌0.1%，主要还是因特朗普停止刺激法案，引发市场避嫌情绪回升;另外，美股的下跌也提振了日元。短线来看，继续维持美/日为震荡偏多结构。

In terms of European currencies，周二，欧元、英镑大幅回落，主要是因美元的大幅反弹。今晚20:10，欧洲央行行长拉加德将发布讲话。在上一次公开讲话中，拉加德再次强调欧洲经济复苏充满不确定性，此次讲话中投资者可留意其对经济前景的进一步预测。英国方面，脱欧传来了部分利好消息，在一定程度上也提振了英磅，但未来仍然存在不确定性。因此，短线对于欧元、英镑而言仍有承压，但下行空间已不大。

In terms of commodity currency，周二，商品货币整体较弱，一方面是因避嫌情绪的回升带动美元的走强;另外，澳洲联储表示，对于未来货币政策路径，强调在实现充分就业和有信心通胀将保持在2%-3%的区间之前，都不会加息，宽松的货币政策也对澳元构成了一定压力。因此，短线继续维持澳元、纽元为偏弱结构。

commodity market
goldaspect，周二，金价大幅走低，主要是因美国总统特朗普出院及叫停财政刺激政策谈判等一系列因素影响，另外，美元的走强也拖累了金价。因此，短线继续维持黄金为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of oil prices，周二，油价收涨逾1.5%，主要是因飓风接近墨西哥湾且挪威石油工人罢工预计将造成供应中断;不过，油市在盘后交易中收窄涨幅主要是因刺激政策落空导致股市下挫，并威胁到石油产品的需求回升。早间APIcrude oil库存录得增加95.1万桶高于市场预期，考虑到APIandEIA的正相关性较强，预计今晚的EIA或许会继续施压油价。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，周二，恒生指数收涨0.9%。盘面上，半导体板块、阿里概念股走高，体育用品股、电信股走低。个股方面，首日由GEM转往主板交易新股德利机械收涨5.36%;中芯国际、美团点评同样强势收涨。考虑到美股受不利消息影响，周二尾盘高位跳水，这或许短线上对于港股还是有一定压力。技术上看，继续关注23000Support and25000The pressure.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.
Europe/USA and Australia/US bears can redeem a portion of their profits.


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(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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