Wanzhou Gold Industry: Gold rebound at high levels, patiently waiting for adjustments to be in place

Yesterday's review:

goods in stockgoldThe surge in momentum on Monday and the rebound in momentum indicate that the market is weak and difficult to reverse. The bearish trend in the medium term does not need to change. Considering the limited spatial range of the golden monthly line, adopting a sideways consolidation approach in time is to better wait for the overall direction. Yesterday's rise0.79%Reporting1954.99. As for how much space to leave at a specific time, it is actually predetermined. Many investors make wild guesses and demand to leave their predicted space, which is not suitable for natural trends.


Fundamentals:
On Monday, the news in the gold market was even lighter, with the market operating on a technical level. The news of vaccine restart over the weekend still significantly suppressed expectations for gold. The slight fluctuations in the market indicate that the trend of entanglement will continue for a period of time, and the reason for the gold entanglement is likely to be the divergence between long and short positions. Of course, we know that markets with differences are healthy and normal, and markets without differences are unhealthy and abnormal. The news of COVID-19 is mixed, and the outlook of the international situation is still unclear, while this week's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to still send a dove signal, adding to the good news for gold bulls. But is pigeon pie really good? We can think carefully that for six consecutive months, gold has been operating in a favorable environment, which is of course a loose monetary environment. Although the Federal Reserve will maintain zero interest rates until the end of the year, other ways of releasing rescue funds may not occur. Therefore, the situation of wanting to continue to loosen again is very low. It is recommended to treat the current funding environment with caution. The market is concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will provide more specific forward-looking guidance and take more measures at its first interest rate meeting after adjusting its monetary policy framework. The Federal Reserve will also release its latest economic forecast at this meeting, which will provide clues for the central bank's future actions.
In fact, when we consider with a deep perspective, why forward-looking guidance is needed is because of the previous large amount of loose monetary environment. The market is concerned that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to sustain such a situation, but the Federal Reserve has no intention of tightening, so it is necessary to provide future monetary direction. In layman's terms, it means forcing the Federal Reserve, abbreviated as "forcing the palace". The market has mixed views on the actions of the Federal Reserve. stay9In the investigation at the beginning of the month, only39%Respondents stated that they expect Federal Reserve officials to revise their forward-looking guidance next week. Nearly one-third of the respondents expect2021It is only possible to modify the forward-looking guidelines in the year or later. They expect that the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly forecast will show interest rates until2023The annual average will remain around zero. If the Federal Reserve chooses to introduce more stimulus measures, gold seems to be expected to return8month7The record high set by the day. In the medium to long term, gold will also continue to maintain its growth momentum. At present, it seems that the probability is not very high.


Technical aspect:
On the technical side, spot gold experienced a weak decline on Monday, and the market seems to be preparing for Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Is it a gamble to continue loose stimulus policies or to provide expectations for future tightening. So before Thursday, it may remain60Sorting above the moving average,20The suppression of the moving average may seem difficult to give direction from this perspective, but considering the large cycle, even if an uptrend is for the sake of a decline, it is easy to see the market clearly.
Spot gold slightly rose and then fell, indicating that bears still occupy the main direction. It is recommended to continue to short at high levels. Important Stay Away1960Nearby, consider conducting a light warehouse empty test.



Today's trading strategy:
High altitude during the day, light warehouses are much lower.
London Gold: Empty order1960、1970Light position, stop loss1975, Objective1900。
        Multiple orders1940Nearby low, stop loss1935, Objective1960。


Note: The above is only the personal opinion and strategy of analysts from Wanzhou Gold Industry, for reference and exchange only. No investment advice has been given to clients, and it is not related to their investments, nor is it used as a basis for placing orders.
Key focus data for the day:
14：00 britain7Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate
     　　 britain8Monthly unemployment rate
   　　   britain8Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits(ten thousand people)
17：00 eurozone9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index
20：30 U.S.A9New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
   　　   U.S.A8Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate
21：15 U.S.A8Monthly industrial output rate