Zhou Hongjin:9.13黄金上行乏力，原油延续弱势；下周黄金原油走势预判

Summary:goldTrend analysis, gold trading strategy, gold market analysiscrude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　
　　常常有投资朋友向鸿金调侃：“一直不明白，为什么我一个小小的散户就可以彻底左右整个市场，每当我一买多时，市场就下跌，一卖空它就涨回来。反手时，左右挨耳光，顺势时，横盘装孙子，逆势时，急拉打止损，如此反复……为什么手握百亿资金的庄家们，几年来，就派人盯住我这几万块钱不放？这到底是为什么？”幽默背后实则满是辛酸——长此以往，投资者很容易陷入自我怀疑中，甚至对做单产生畏惧心理。在投资的路上一个人的力量是很有限的，一只老虎看见一群狼也只能远远的躲开，所以当你投资不顺利，屡次受到挫折的时候，你可能需要一个分析团队为你出谋划策！
　　
　　市场回顾与展望：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，金融市场重磅突袭：全球疫情形势严峻，欧洲新增确诊病例激增，引发担忧；欧洲央行拉加德称，“没有必须对欧元涨势过度反应”；英国公布《内部市场法案》，这也使得欧盟与英国之间脱欧谈判骤然紧张，引发无协议、硬脱欧的担忧升温！中美方面仍然是投资者焦点：双方在外交、媒体、留学生签证等问题都有最新消息；中印边境的新闻似乎更为劲爆：45年来首次出现枪声、中印外长发表联合声明……全球市场上演疯狂暴跌一幕：美股大幅波动，纳斯达克指数一周跌超4%, recorded3月以来最大周跌幅，大型科技股本周市值蒸发超3500亿美元；受到风险情绪恶化，以及能源需求疲软美国原油、布伦特原油经历崩跌一幕，单日重挫7%； pound/美元一周跌超500点，最高1.3262, minimum1.2761。
　　
　　尽管美元收涨，但是现货黄金本周仍然录得上涨，最终收在1940dollar/盎司，不过波动区间仅60美元，最近四周波幅呈现逐渐收窄态势。本周，美油、布油经历了一场大风暴，一度双双下挫至40美元以下，分析认为，美股大跌引发市场风险情绪降温，再加上疫情形势严峻，引发能源需求担忧。
　　
Looking ahead to next week, the central banks of the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom will successively announce new interest rate resolutions, and the Federal Reserve will also release economic expectations and interest rate charts. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will elect a new leader and then finalize the candidate for the new prime minister. In terms of data, focus on China8Monthly retail, industrial and fixed assets investment. Other major data include the UK unemployment rate andCPIUS retail sales and current account, CanadaCPIAustralia's unemployment rate, etc.
　　
1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold
　　
Due to the lack of further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank and the US government, gold prices fell slightly on Friday, and spot gold closed higher1940.55dollar/Ounces, down5.58USD, decline0.29%The lowest touch in the plate1937.31dollar/Ounces, highest touch1954.79dollar/Ounces. However, due to concerns about economic recovery, global stock markets have been volatile this week, and gold still recorded a weekly rise. This week, spot gold rose6.56USD or0.34%。
　　
Looking at the daily chart,MACDDead cross, green column kinetic energy gradually shrinks,KDJAdhesive; The Bollinger Bands continued to close, with gold prices closing below the mid track; Indicating that there is still a lack of momentum for gold to rise, there is a risk of another decline in the short term. Below support, focus first on Wednesday's low point1920.15, this position is also close to50The daily moving average, if it breaks below, will further push gold prices back to this week's low point1906.72. Strong support and key focus1900The checkpoint, this is an important psychological checkpoint. In the short term, it is expected that this level will not easily fall below, but if it is missed, the support level will see Bollinger leading down the track1889.60, and may even step back8month12Daily low point1863.16。
　　
However, due to concerns about economic recovery, global stock markets have been volatile this week, and gold still recorded weekly gains. Technically speaking, as the price of gold increases1920-1900The region once again gained support and quickly recovered5日均线，市场看空情绪有所减弱，鸿金认为，只要金价运行在1920Above, then the future market will still lean towards a volatile upward trend; The upper resistance first focuses on the middle track of the Bollinger Belt1951.56,If the position is regained, it will increase the short-term bullish signal, further resistance at Thursday's high point1966.54Nearby, if there is a breakthrough, the gold price may further explore9month1Daily high point1992.48Nearby resistance; Overall, although gold prices are facing some downward pressure in the short term1900关口失守之前，后市仍以看涨为主，所以操作思路上周鸿金（微：zh66646）建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1966.54、1976.64；
　　
Focus on support below:1920.15、1906.72；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
2、 Analysis of the trend of US crude oil
　　
　　因高于预期的原油库存令投资者感到不安，在美国驾车高峰期即将结束之际，市场对燃油需求的担忧进一步加深。美股当日表现低迷，令疲弱的油价雪上加霜，油价周五盘中涨跌互现：美国WTIcrude oil10monthfuturesClosing up3Cents, reported37.39dollar/Barrel, increase0.08%，本周WTI原油价格累计下跌6.1%, appears4月份暴跌以来首次连续两周下跌。
　　
Looking at the daily chart,MACD死叉、绿柱动能持稳，KDJ死叉；布林带持续开口，油价收盘在下轨附近，预计将延续跌势；下方初步支撑在本周触及的3Month low point36.13. Strong support in6month15Daily low point34.36Nearby, this position is from3月跳空以来被多次测试，参考性相对较强。整体来看，由于一些国家病例上升，需求前景仍乌云密布，美国原油库存意外上升，贸易商增加离岸储存空间，沙特大幅下调售价，全球供过于求的局面将持续。不过，随着油价在36美元关口附近获得初步支撑，且KDJ进入超卖区域，短线仍然需要警惕油价下行过程中伴随的技术性反弹，上方阻力首先关注38美元关口，该位置同时接近周五高点，若突破，预计油价会进一步试探7month30Daily low point38.72Further resistance10Daily moving average39.63附近，若收复则削弱短线看空信号；布林带中轨阻力在41.43附近，油价需要企稳该位置上方才能有效扭转目前的跌势；综合来看，油价短线偏震荡下跌，所以操作思路上周鸿金（微：zh66646）It is recommended to focus on rebounding at high altitudes, with a pullback and a long position as a supplement;
　　
Focus on resistance above:38、38.72；
　　
Focus on support below:36.13、34.36；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
　　这个市场对某些人来说可能已经身心俱疲了，从满怀希望入市，到损失惨重害怕入场，亏的连鼓励自己的信心都没有，或许真的不适合这个市场，无论从实力上，还是心态上，都不能做好，一度寻求一个可以帮助你的老师，也以亏损告终，继续待在市场不开心，离开市场不甘心，这或许是很多投资者面临的现状。任何投资都是有一定风险的，要么不做，要做就做出一番名堂出来。那么在投资的道路上，我给不了你太多温暖，我只能让你找回自信，我给不了太多安慰，我只能从操作中让你学到经验，我给不了太多虚假的承诺，我只能在实战中让你读懂市场规律。解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资趋势，对黄金、白银、原油投资有兴趣却无从下手或者已经在接触却并不理想的朋友，订阅“周鸿金”（微：zh66646）You give me a trust, and I give you a lot of wealth. The mid to long term layout in the second half of the year begins, and great opportunities are right in front of us. Opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared. Zhou Hongjin looks forward to becoming friends with you!
　　　　   writing/Zhou Hongjin (WeChat:zh66646）