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Trading is like warfare, where both offense and defense are necessary. Defense is based on retreat, while offense is based on advance. When risk outweighs profit, a perfect retreat is far more significant than a partial victory. The highest level of trading is short positions. Only short positions can calm down, only meditation can observe battles, and only observation can serve as a referee, thus distinguishing between strong and weak trends. As long as one stands in line with the strong and weak teams, profit is just a passing act. Therefore, the first thing a trader needs to learn is to spend most of their time observing, rather than participating. They don't need to participate every time, they only want to turn the tide of trading once. There is no one in this world who lives easier than anyone else, but the strong. Even if they fall, they must smile, never cry out for pain when they fall, or turn on the light when they are afraid of the dark. The strong are not born, they have only experienced more setbacks.
Thursday(8month27日),美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上就期待已久的“货币政策框架评估”发表讲话。评估主要关注新的通胀策略。根据美联储公开活动时间表,本次演讲将以视频方式进行,并向公众直播。由于令人担忧的低通胀和低利率侵蚀了美联储抗击衰退的能力, The Federal Reserve2019年全年以及今年大部分时间进行了首次全面框架评估。决策者们讨论了对通胀率持更宽松态度,即有时会要求通货膨胀率超过2%的目标,以便使平均结果更接近该目标。以一段时间内的平均通胀率为目标,而不是设定2%的固定目标,可能意味着通胀率将在更长时间内保持在低位,如果美联储证实这一举措,美元在短期内实现实质性反弹的可能性将微乎其微。不过,外界认为美联储仍在敲定评估的细节,预计将在9月的会议上宣布评估结果。如果鲍威尔周四没有暗示可能会进行调整,投资者可能会在失望。关注工纵好“廉镇”即可获得实时最新行情操作建议、中线布局计划一份!
Analysis of Gold Market Trend:
现货黄金走高,一度较日低回升逾50USD to1954.88dollar/盎司;日线图来看,MACD死叉,绿柱动能略微收缩,KDJ死叉;布林带持续收口,金价仍在中轨下方承压,短线震荡回调的风险依然存在,下方支撑首先关注5Daily moving average1940.79,进一步支撑参考1925,不过,随着金价自低点1902.48迅速拉升逾50美元,并破1950关口,短线看空信号已经明显削弱,上方初步阻力首先关注布林带中轨1963.4,由于金价在近5个交易日受到该位置压制,阻力相对较强,若突破则增加短线看涨信号,20Daily moving average resistance1971.54附近,若进一步上破则金价将有机会再次冲击2000大关!综合来看后市操作上廉镇建议以回落做多为主,空单谨慎参与。由于笔者廉镇不知道你们套单的点位以及仓位的详细情况,不好给出相应的解套策略,需要解套的可单线本人(官微:jy85839)。
Analysis of crude oil message surface:
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Wednesday(8month26day)According to the published data, as of8month21日当周美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存降幅超预期,精炼油库存略超预期,汽油库存降幅超预期。由于市场对库存大幅下降已经早有预期,主要受墨西哥湾飓风影响,因此EIA数据公布后美国原油价格短线基本持稳。报道称,飓风“劳拉”本周沿美国德州和路易斯安那州海岸登陆时,将成为一场3级风暴,可能给该地区造成高达180亿美元的损失,并使美国一些最大的炼油厂关闭数月。因飓风劳拉逼近产能关停。但是,随着驾驶季接近尾声,疫情抑制消费前景,飓风对油价的提振可能是短期的。据美国国家飓风中心预测,“劳拉”飓风在周三晚间或周四早间登陆时,最高风速将达到每小时115mile(185kilometre)。飓风已经中断了近海石油和天然气的生产,关闭了海湾沿岸三分之一的炼油能力,停止了出口,并促使强制疏散。
Analysis of crude oil market trend:
原油日线上看,隔日原油同时上演冲高回落,探底回升反弹,盘中依托MA5日均线上行,同时触及上轨后展开回落,录得小阳十字星,日线上不做过多分析,或将继续依托MA5-10日均线受支撑继续回升;4小时上看,隔日原油持于高位附近横盘,并在刷新高后再次下行,当前布林带处于开口期,MAAfter stepping out of the double golden cross, the moving average,MA5-10拐头向上,KDJ随机指标三线并拢想向下,MACD指标红色动能柱持续缩量,快慢线平行向前,综合来看,原油目前继续持于高位横盘,短期内有回落需求,但整体涨势完好,日内操作上廉镇建议回撤做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方关注43.8-44.0前期高点阻力,不破可短空,下方关注42.5-42.8Frontline support. Due to the fact that the author Lianzhen is not aware of the details of your trading positions and positions, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies for unwinding. For those who need to unwind, please refer to the individual (official WeChat account:jy85839)。