MEXGroup：晚间专题技术报告2020-08-26

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数小幅走高，我们认为主要还是因美债收益率重拾涨势，其中，十年期美债收益率涨至一周高位。而当前投资者的焦点已经转向周四美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，目前市场普遍预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在会上进一步透露美联储的政策框架，料将推出所谓的“平均通胀率”政策目标。考虑到上次美联储会议纪要并不及市场预期鸽派，以及美债收益率重拾涨势，我们认为美元还有修复的预期。

On the UK side,日内，英镑兑美元小幅走弱，主要还是因美元的走强。虽然近期英国经济数据的好转推迟了英国央行实施负利率的预期，给予了英镑一定支撑;但考虑到英国和欧盟的脱欧谈判仍未打破僵局，预计英镑还将继续承压，但并不代表有下跌空间。

In terms of commodity currency，日内，澳元、纽元微涨。主要源于澳洲联邦政府表示财政宽松仍有进一步空间，同时澳洲联储对澳元汇价走强表现感到“可以容忍”，这两大因素均对澳元汇价构成了支撑;但考虑到近期美元还有修复预期，预计澳元上升空间有限。对于纽元而言，虽然新西兰联储有降息预期，使得纽元承压。不过，随着新西兰继续遏制疫情，以及汇价基本已经反映了负利率预期，预计纽元短线下跌空间也有限。

MEX Quantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&amp 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha(α)by13%。量化模型每周调仓，并于每周一开盘下单及周五收盘平仓，各货币对一标准手，Suggest setting stop loss at0.3%。在没有考虑实际杠杆下，MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.06%。This week's combination and as of Beijing time8month26day16:24盈亏如下，利差(库存费)为正向。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，黄金震荡回落。主要是因美债收益率走高削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。此外，疫苗的进展不错，以及国际经贸紧张关系的缓和，使黄金近期承压。短线维持黄金为震荡偏弱结构。




In terms of oil prices,日内，油价同样波动不大。主要是受美国墨西哥湾飓风的影响，短线提振了油价，但是需求前景的忧虑也限制了油价涨幅。今晚将公布EIA库存数据，市场预计将录得减少350万桶，考虑到API的利好，预计EIA或许给予油价一定支撑。

abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示，加元、美元空头仍处于极值，因此，预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、纽元、澳元多头也处于极值。

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/US bears can continue to hold.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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