MBG Markets: 美元反弹还未结束，短线欧系货币承压明显

Quantitative trading strategy
虽然前几周我们的量化交易策略净值有所回落，但回撤幅度相对有限，并且在上周基本已经企稳；值得大家注意的是，货币市场在2020年依然展现出了稳固并明显的动量反转效应。投资者下半年可继续参考我们的每周建议组合。
MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency Hedge Portfolio. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.06%。本周组合及截至北京时间8month25day6:21The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of safe haven currencies,周一，美元指数上涨0.11%。今日，美国将公布8月谘商会消费者信心指数和里奇蒙德联储制造业指数，目前市场预期分别为93and10，考虑到近期美国疫苗情有所缓解，预计将给予美元一定支撑。技术面来看，底背离仍在修复的过程中。总体来看，反弹还未结束。美/日方面，考虑到市场避险情绪不浓，短线我们认为更多的是跟随美元的走势图。

欧洲方面，周一，欧元冲高回落。一是因美元指数的企稳反弹，另外一方面市场正在焦虑地关注着欧洲疫情再度抬头的影响，尤其是德国、法国和意大利冠状病例的增加，也施压了欧元。今日，德国将公布二季度GDPandIFO商业景气指数，虽然近期德国经济释放出很多积极信号，但考虑到疫情的加剧，或许对于欧元支撑不会太强。因此，短线继续维持欧元为偏弱结构。

In terms of commodity currency，周一，澳元走势相对较强，主要是因大宗商品整体依旧受益于中国需求的向好，这带给澳元提供了支撑。考虑到美元仍有走强的预期，此外，澳大利亚疫情仍然未得到有效控制，预计澳元还将承压下行。纽元方面，主要是受制于新西兰联储将降息的预期，使得纽元承压下行。

commodity market

goldaspect，周一，金价继续下跌。除了美元大幅反弹令金价承压以外，新冠病毒治疗希望和经济状况改善的迹象也削弱了黄金作为避风港的吸引力。因此，短线维持黄金为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of oil prices，周一，主要是因两场风暴逼近墨西哥湾，导致该地区逾一半的海上生产设施关闭，提振了油价。不过，考虑到全球疫情形势依旧严峻，需求方面仍未有效复苏。因此，维持油价为震荡结构。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周一，港股高开高收，恒指收涨1.74%，同股不同权公司板块强势收涨。鉴于疫苗消息利好，风险情绪上升，港股短线或有一定支撑。技术上看，继续关注24500Support and26000The pressure.

abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示，加元、美元空头仍处于极值，因此，预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、纽元、澳元多头也处于极值。

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/US bears can continue to hold.


Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
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